BTC and the case for a drop to $4600
Diupdate
Here is BTC on the daily chart, with the 200 moving average shown swooping down in purple.
The two blue bars at the bottom indicate a zone which briefly acted as a support for BTC during last November's drop from $6000.
When BTC pumped up again 6 days ago, you can see price never even stopped to say hello to this zone on the way up, which should have acted as a resistance.
You can also see we are approaching the apex of a bullish pennant, which should break in either direction within the next 48 hours.
While an upside break would produce a target of $5650, I think a drop down first is more likely, to test the area of $4630, with a wick as low as $4560.
$4630 is both the 200 moving average, and the top of the previously mentioned support zone, so this should act as a strong area to see price consolidate over, before continuing up.
The two blue bars at the bottom indicate a zone which briefly acted as a support for BTC during last November's drop from $6000.
When BTC pumped up again 6 days ago, you can see price never even stopped to say hello to this zone on the way up, which should have acted as a resistance.
You can also see we are approaching the apex of a bullish pennant, which should break in either direction within the next 48 hours.
While an upside break would produce a target of $5650, I think a drop down first is more likely, to test the area of $4630, with a wick as low as $4560.
$4630 is both the 200 moving average, and the top of the previously mentioned support zone, so this should act as a strong area to see price consolidate over, before continuing up.
Catatan
BTC breached the top of this pennant seven hours ago, before coming down again to retest the top line as a support at $5160.This is now looking like a good place to go long for the upside target of $5650. A sustained break back into the triangle, or any movement below it would negate the trade.
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