Bitcoin tracing back to reaccumulation zone
Diupdate
Bitcoin is characterized by a parabolic growth phase (yellow zone) and stays in this area between exponential growth phases (when price shoots up and above this yellow zone). The bottom of yellow trend line could possibly be the mining production cost for the miners and it has sustained these levels through bitcoin' history. The larger miners have always tried to bring back the price to the yellow zone and make it unsustainable for the smaller miners resulting in most to close shop and give away their market share to the larger miners.
Mining profitability chart (USD/Day for 1 THash/s) shows a decrease in the profitability after the 2019 mini-bull run in which the price found a top in June.
bitinfocharts.com/comparison/bitcoin-mining_profitability.html
The current bull run of 2019 seems to be retracing back to the yellow zone. Two possible scenarios are
1. Neutral ( $7400 - $9000) - Price moves within this region giving enough time for the institutional investors to buy up
2. Worst ( $6000 - $7400) - There is a large selloff in the coming weeks to shake out weak hands.
However, in both the cases, the price will adhere to the yellow zone and keep moving up to keep sustain mining operations and will enter a new exponential growth phase after the May 2020 Halving event when the retail FOMO kicks in. In the worst case, the larger miners could keep the price low even after the halving event for a short period of time which will cause a large loss to smaller miners when their production cost doubles but revenues remain the same or is lower. Both these scenarios are reaccumulation periods.
Another theory to support this is the drop in bitcoin dominance which is in a falling wedge while the total crypto cap is testing the historical diagonal support line. Money is flowing more into altcoins at the moment as several of them have showed bullish reversal signs.
Summary: Short-term outlook is bearish for bitcoin for next few months. Multi-year outlook for bitcoin is still bullish due to the global recession fears and trade wars.
*Note: This is not financial advise but just speculation with possibilities and probabilities. Please do your own research.
Mining profitability chart (USD/Day for 1 THash/s) shows a decrease in the profitability after the 2019 mini-bull run in which the price found a top in June.
bitinfocharts.com/comparison/bitcoin-mining_profitability.html
The current bull run of 2019 seems to be retracing back to the yellow zone. Two possible scenarios are
1. Neutral ( $7400 - $9000) - Price moves within this region giving enough time for the institutional investors to buy up
2. Worst ( $6000 - $7400) - There is a large selloff in the coming weeks to shake out weak hands.
However, in both the cases, the price will adhere to the yellow zone and keep moving up to keep sustain mining operations and will enter a new exponential growth phase after the May 2020 Halving event when the retail FOMO kicks in. In the worst case, the larger miners could keep the price low even after the halving event for a short period of time which will cause a large loss to smaller miners when their production cost doubles but revenues remain the same or is lower. Both these scenarios are reaccumulation periods.
Another theory to support this is the drop in bitcoin dominance which is in a falling wedge while the total crypto cap is testing the historical diagonal support line. Money is flowing more into altcoins at the moment as several of them have showed bullish reversal signs.
Summary: Short-term outlook is bearish for bitcoin for next few months. Multi-year outlook for bitcoin is still bullish due to the global recession fears and trade wars.
*Note: This is not financial advise but just speculation with possibilities and probabilities. Please do your own research.
Catatan
Buying bitcoin whenever it falls below the daily 200 MA have always been the best periods to buy. Currently it is testing the 200 MA as resistance.Catatan
Correction: New parabolic growth in green should be New exponential growth.Trade aktif
Price at support level now. If it breaks then we will see sub 7kTrade aktif
Price is following the red curve. Lower supports will be tested.
Trade aktif
Entered Parabolic stage
Publikasi terkait
Pernyataan Penyangkalan
Informasi dan publikasi tidak dimaksudkan untuk menjadi, dan bukan merupakan saran keuangan, investasi, perdagangan, atau rekomendasi lainnya yang diberikan atau didukung oleh TradingView. Baca selengkapnya di Persyaratan Penggunaan.