BTCUSD Perspective And Levels: Risky Business.

5 Nov 2017

BTCUSD Update: Nothing new on the new high front except for a new high of 7598. When markets trade like this, it is always a good idea to really zoom out to get a sense of proportion and risk.

People ask me why is it that I won't go long if I am projecting targets at the 8k level? I realize when I answer, "Risk is too high" that is vague. So in this chart I will demonstrate what I mean.

For those who are new to trading in general, the expectations that you have in terms of time frame are a big part of defining risk. Swing trading (days to weeks) generally presents a multitude of risks, with one being larger daily price ranges compared to day trading (minutes to hours) especially in nutty markets like this one. This is why I have been encouraging day trading and staying away from swing trades.

When I say I am not taking any swing trades long, it is because of the potential of the pullback vs. the potential of continuing higher. The weekly time frame of this market paints a clear picture of this potential in terms of price proportions. Two price extension levels projected from the recent wave 2 and 4 swing lows point to 7901 and 8006 levels as the 2.618 and 1.618 proportions respectively. These are extensions measured on the weekly time frame and are overlapping near a common price point. Overlapping extensions on large time frames like the weekly usually offer a more reliable point of reference in terms of potential. In my previous report I had a smaller time frame extension in the lower 8k area as well. That is only about 4 to 500 points away which can be achieved in a matter of hours. (Great for day trading). This is a reasonable expectation of potential because it is based on price structure.

Now let's consider the pull back potential. When I measure the entire rise in this BTC beginning in the 150s, I get a .382 support at 4776. That means it is reasonable for price to pull back to this level, and still be within a price structure that is bullish. This level also coincides with the old resistance of 4970 (Wave 3 high). Now keep in mind, this does not mean price WILL retrace this far, it means that IF it happens, it is perfectly normal and would offer a buying opportunity. (A move like this can take weeks to play out).

So what does all this mean? In theory, if I got long now for a swing trade, and I want to set a reasonable stop based on big picture price structure, I am looking at 1500 points, vs a potential 500 point profit (1:3 reward/risk?). The situation that is driving this market is unusual and serves as an outlier. As a short term trader, I am looking for repetition so that I can determine reliable signals and achieve consistent results, not long shot one offs. If I wanted a long shot, I would play roulette.

1:3 reward/risk? That means if I short it, my reward/risk is 3:1! The bears are forgetting that this is not the only factor when it comes to measuring risk. There is also the probability of the trade going in your favor on this time frame. As I wrote about in my previous report, there is no structure in place at all that makes for a broader bearish argument. This conflict is also another good reason to either day trade or stay out. This environment presents a problem that day trading solves because you are not exposed to all this risk, but can still benefit from the lingering bullish momentum.

In summary, when it comes to swing trading, being aware of the big picture is a helpful exercise that offers insight that is not available on small time frames. The example that I illustrated here is not a prediction, rather it is an idea of what is within reason based on price proportions. Price may not come close to retesting 4770 when the larger magnitude correction unfolds, but even if it pulls back half way, you are looking at the higher 5ks which is quite a ways from where price is now. If this doesn't paint a clear picture of risk, than I don't know what will.

Comments and questions welcome.