BITCOIN - TIme to Join The HODL Party !!! 😁

9 Jun 2022

In this exotic BTC correction there has been some minor development but its enough that I have changed my perspective somewhat and I'll show you why.

So the descending channel (bullish) broke to printing an evening star (bearish) and this appeared to be a repeat of what happened in the highlighted area where it did break up but then continued the trend down.

Here however BTC appears to be forming a contracting pattern which will be building pressure (cause) to break one way or the other.

But I now think this is building upside cause and thats partly because it has held firm following the descending channel and evening star can be a wave 2 to see further upside.

Also there is some bullish divergence between the Jan and May low.

So although I will still maintain that BTC is going to see lower lows, that may not be for a while and a bounce could be coming.

And so i've bought 2 alts so far - MATIC and Dogcoin.

I will cease "hodling" if BTC breaks 28K.

Not advice

9 Jun 2022

Catatan

If you enjoyed this analysis leave a like / comment and more people will see my content. If you didn't enjoy this analysis you can still leave a comment if you like 😄.

9 Jun 2022

Catatan

10 Jun 2022

Catatan

Well CPI report showing inflation highest since 1981 has not really helped any market and BTC has fallen out of the triangle along with indexes having a large gap down.

But yet BTC is still above the low and could now form another descending channel which would could be potentially bullish.

I'm going to retract my BTC sub 28K statement and actually start building a small position for the bounce because some of these alts are now down 90%+ and have been bearish for a long time.

I will be posting on a select few alts shortly so stay tuned for that.

But anyhow I have decided that BTC is a little too nimble and exotic for my current skill set in the short term and so I will begin to build my alt position, which btw is not a life changing amount. I'm here more for the craft and part of that is risk management. A large buy area means less margin, and thats fine. Its a game of probability and psychology.



Next thread I will show some NVT strategy which should also reveal why I am buying here.

10 Jun 2022

Catatan

Will need to see another corrective up-thrust for current move to be considered a descending channel.

11 Jun 2022

Catatan

Well since I posted this just 2 days ago, BTC was then in a tight sideways pattern but now has moved significantly to the downside. And so it seems my original copy and paste fractal taken from December will likely be correct.



Ive squashed the fractal a bit to match the recent high and its interesting that it does finish around 20 - 23K.

So anyhow, just a little thought avenue here, but I think this CPI report can potentially be the straw that broke the investors back. Its an enormous red flag the majority of buyers in any market, from big fish to little fish will now be thinking "recession."

And so I have exited my MATIC and DOGE positions. I didnt get time to post a thread on them but theres not much to say. They are breaking down from their contraction patterns and will probably go much lower.

And I'm in the same situation with stocks currently. ROKU and PYPL are in a similar situation to DOGE and MATIC. They're all down enormously from their highs, but in stocks it is years of growth being wiped out.

But just the same as how MATIC and DOGE need BTC to perform, ROKU and PYPL need NDX to perform and the NDX chart does look quite scary right now.

And if indexes like NDX fall, so too will BTC.

Anyhow just a little stock perspective. If you're only interested in crypto and you think everything else is a waste of time, it may be worth taking some time to understand the correlation with other markets - at least to better understand where crypto sits.

But obviously there's no need to have too much doom and gloom, recessions mean enormous discounts are coming and i'll see you all at 20K.

11 Jun 2022

Catatan

I do cover stock indexes regularly for anyone interested as well as some bonds and yields, oil and gas, and gold.

11 Jun 2022

Catatan

Also regarding pattern - impulse and correction, it has been the same thing happening again in December but with smaller price band:

The descending channel built bullish cause (pressure) in the short term. That cause was realised in the effect (release of pressure) that was a small price spike and this time we had 2 smaller price spikes that temporarily appeared they may lead to sustained bullish impetus within a contracting fractal to push on upward, but actually the effect of the cause built in the descending channel was exhausted in the 2 price spikes, thus this passage was probably an exotic continuation pattern.