A reversal or a rebound?

25 Jun 2019

Recently, there are more and more bullish people in the market. Some people say they will see you for $100,000, while others say it will be $20,000 in the next month. As for technology, it is also very strong, and it is difficult to make a decent adjustment.  

But there are several questions to consider.  

The first is whether there is a real breakthrough in blockchain technology and whether the application scenarios can be popularized. We have also seen the regulators' concern about fb. If there are not enough scenarios to be implemented, stir-fried money is still the most widely used cryptocurrency, and it will be difficult to get the general recognition of the society.  

The second is that there is more money pushing the market up than expected, and the amount of bitcoin in circulation should be decreasing, so there is still some imbalance between supply and demand in the market. However, since it is capital that drives the market, all capital has costs and the demand for profits. When the capital starts to realize profits, it will reflect a fall in price. Therefore, even if it reaches $200,000, the possibility of falling back to $3,000 cannot be ruled out. So for value investors, for encrypted believers, that's the biggest damage.  

Third, from the fundamental point of view, support the currency price to rise several logic look very reasonable, but can not help deliberating

1, halve, and not too great significance, when millions of circulation halve is very obvious, now 17 million circulation remaining 4 million, halve only 2 million, and not too much significance.  

2. The admission of the so-called institutional capital, if it is really institutional capital, will not substantially push up the price of currency in theory. That is an draining and fishing practice. This is not the logic of institutions. Only retail investors ignore the costs and long-term benefits. If bitcoin is digital gold, you can see how institutions operate in the market by looking at how gold has behaved over the past few decades.  

3. The so-called fight against fiat currency inflation is actually very far-fetched. Eth adds so much, it's inflation itself, BCH at BTC forks, BCH forks BSV, isn't that inflation, so you can't just take it literally and not think about the deep stuff.  



If the rise in the price of the currency is merely driven by certain funds, then when the money leaves the market, it will inevitably cause the price to collapse, so it is not wrong to be vigilant all the time. As for those Shouting $20,000 or even $100,000, just look at what they were saying last October.  

Strategy: if the current market is b wave rebound, basically entered the end, will appear at any time to fall prices, to maintain high vigilance, spot holding no problem, but below ma6 need to reduce positions or hedging. At this stage of the contract, I advise you to take it easy.