Even if This Isn't Distribution, Consolidation Could Take Months
Just popping in for a quick Bitcoin update. Though cycle proponents will be quick to point out that Bitcoin is way ahead of where it "should" be, price wise compared with previous cycles, it's still struggling to maintain a new all-time high despite supposed institutional interest. People who have been in the market for years are starting to want out, expressing the sentiment that this is going to be their "last cycle." Meanwhile, stocks are significantly up since their last all-time high and some high-performers like Nvidia have well outperformed Bitcoin over the last few years. Bitcoin's price currently looks like consolidation after an explosive move up from the bear market lows near 15.5k. It's taking so long that price is beginning to drift below all the major daily moving averages. Ethereum is really looking quite weak, having retraced all of this year's gains and broken below a major long term trendline. 
On my Bitcoin chart, price is hanging out below the large broadening support, dating back to fall 2022, now almost two years ago. It's below all the major daily moving averages, representing current weakness. Seller volume remains generally high in this range.
I drew a secondary trendline and another broadening pattern, this one pointing down. Historically, this can be a bullish pattern. Even if it is, there appears to be plenty of room structurally for more sideways movement into the fall. The pattern comes to completion by the end of the year. This is an example of what I'm thinking, for bullish and bearish options:
Bulls hope that consolidation this long produces a major move up, perhaps all the way to 300K + and to the top of the broadening pattern. This sounds crazy, but it's roughly the same magnitude of price increase as the last bull marker. Though, due to diminishing returns, this does really seem unlikely. Of course, this is a lot of foo-foo guesswork, but understanding charts visually has always been how I like to roll. Fundamentals are then also important.
On the bearish side, a breakdown from these patterns could easily send prices back below 40k. Let's see how things play out! I'm still betting on crypto largely becoming a forgotten "industry" due to lack of authentic utility and therefore little fundamental value. Even though ETFs exist, ETFs exist for many things. I don't think investors are necessarily prepared for the slow fade, where Bitcoin and other cryptocurrencies remain niche and their value starts to decline over time. I'll easily be proven wrong if prices sustain new all-time highs.
Thanks for reading! I'll provide updates when I can. This is clearly speculative and not meant as financial advice.
-Victor Cobra
On my Bitcoin chart, price is hanging out below the large broadening support, dating back to fall 2022, now almost two years ago. It's below all the major daily moving averages, representing current weakness. Seller volume remains generally high in this range.
I drew a secondary trendline and another broadening pattern, this one pointing down. Historically, this can be a bullish pattern. Even if it is, there appears to be plenty of room structurally for more sideways movement into the fall. The pattern comes to completion by the end of the year. This is an example of what I'm thinking, for bullish and bearish options:
Bulls hope that consolidation this long produces a major move up, perhaps all the way to 300K + and to the top of the broadening pattern. This sounds crazy, but it's roughly the same magnitude of price increase as the last bull marker. Though, due to diminishing returns, this does really seem unlikely. Of course, this is a lot of foo-foo guesswork, but understanding charts visually has always been how I like to roll. Fundamentals are then also important.
On the bearish side, a breakdown from these patterns could easily send prices back below 40k. Let's see how things play out! I'm still betting on crypto largely becoming a forgotten "industry" due to lack of authentic utility and therefore little fundamental value. Even though ETFs exist, ETFs exist for many things. I don't think investors are necessarily prepared for the slow fade, where Bitcoin and other cryptocurrencies remain niche and their value starts to decline over time. I'll easily be proven wrong if prices sustain new all-time highs.
Thanks for reading! I'll provide updates when I can. This is clearly speculative and not meant as financial advice.
-Victor Cobra
Catatan
Look at that perfect touch of the trendline! Catatan
That pink curve illustrates what might hold price if price is to break down from this consolidation.Catatan
I ultimately decided to let go of my small Bitcoin short position, held for much of this year. This consolidation is looking a bit stronger, boosted by the stock market, which remains resilient to any economic worries. I'm a bit tired of keeping track of this market anyway. Looking at my chart, there's the possibility of a bearish channel, if price cannot break out here. Catatan
The only thing making me think exiting the short wasn't necessarily a great idea is volume - buyers seem pretty weak here. Open interest remains high comparatively. Any disturbing market data this week could also spook markets.
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