BTC high-level view H&S
After BTC broke 43K, I no longer felt the drop was a Elliott correct wave, instead i started considering this could be a bigger retracement. Viewing info on Wyckoff distribution made a lot of sense and I started believing a full retracement may be in the cards. I looked back at previous run ups/downs this is almost exact what's happened before. The retracement doesn't always drop down to 100% before accumulating, but during the accumulation period there will be a "spring" event in which price will drop even lower before starting a new distribution phase, and it's here that you can hit nearly 100% retracement price targets.
At this point i believe we are in phase E of the Wyckoff Distribution Schematic #1 (bitcoinschmitcoin.com/wp-content/uploads/2018/02/wyckoffdistribution1.jpg) and still have a ways to go, as my previous ideas have stated. I've included my buyin tho i'm personnally going to make buys at 20k, 15k, and 9.5k unless it reverses.
Some folks roll their eyes when someone says Wyckoff, i get it, everyone is now saying it. So I think an easier interpretation is a head and shoulders pattern. I used the weekly chart to help highlight this setup. I also found someone who made a simplified Wyckoff chart showing accumulation, spring, distribution, and back down. It feel it shows the same head and shoulders pattern.
vantagefx.com/wp-content/uploads/2018/12/WyckoffArtboard-1-1024x647.png
Folks who are adverse to Wyckoff, should get the H&S as it's a simple/common pattern people identify and trade on daily.
In the past i've tried to call play-by-play what i think BTC will/should do, and I can't seem to time things exactly (no surprise) so I'm just going to keep this high-level and suggest the following key points I expect.
1. I believe BTC can go higher to fill out the right shoulder. 42K would be fine, but this isn't a requirement.
2. Though I draw a drop as a straight line, the price action will not be a straight drop, nothing is, it will zig-zag and go sideways some.
3. I believe BTC will finish retracement at around 15k-21K and go sideways.
4. I believe this run up started in March 2020 with the pullback and spring, 100% retracement would be around 8-11K. Previous run ups/downs didn't retrace 100% until accumulation finished and the spring event pulled BTCs price back one last time. I believe that after some time, we could see BTC accumulate, and pull back around 8-15k. This may be a quick event, or it may not occur if there is a super strong bounce.
Now if BTC moves simply up to 45K or higher, instead of down, I'd question this H&S view and consider the bear run ended early. The only problems i have with an early end is that i don't think it would be healthy for BTC for a couple reasons:
1. I don't believe there will be room for a large run up maybe we touch 50k... but I don't believe we can go from 30k to 65K. Elon helped push BTC from 39k up and it rocketed on a lot of hype. Without that same hype i don't think btc will see that price target anytime in the short run as many folks are still sore. BTC is having issues breaking 40k now, if it were trivial we wouldn't be going sideways, and if we are struggling in the 30s, i expect less momentum in the 40s and 50s in the short term barring a major catalyst.
2. Alt coins are eating BTCs lunch when it's over 30k... maybe even 20k. Alts are sort of an existential issue for BTC. When it drops in price it become dominant and the focus of all trading. When BTC is expensive it makes small percentage moves and isn't as good a play as cheaper coins like CRV, ETH, MRK, etc which can put up 10%-30% in a few days vs btcs 2-6%. If BTC doesn't drop, I'll put all my trading money in to alts, if btc drops i'll put 60%+ into BTC as I can feel confident it will go from 15K back to 30K... I just don't feel confident about BTC holding at 40K, as there was a lot of hype, it could happen. If BTC drops significantly, some of the ALTS may die and that could be good, some don't even have working products and feel like hype. Doge and Shib are jokes yet they are eating BTCs lunch due to Elon and this isn't good. His tweets made BTC skyrocket and plunge too... so i don't feel confident in the 40-60k range as i feel this was all Elon's manipulation some good, some bad.
I'm still hopeful about the future, I like seeing greater interest and adoption and am bullish long term, but bearish short term.
At this point i believe we are in phase E of the Wyckoff Distribution Schematic #1 (bitcoinschmitcoin.com/wp-content/uploads/2018/02/wyckoffdistribution1.jpg) and still have a ways to go, as my previous ideas have stated. I've included my buyin tho i'm personnally going to make buys at 20k, 15k, and 9.5k unless it reverses.
Some folks roll their eyes when someone says Wyckoff, i get it, everyone is now saying it. So I think an easier interpretation is a head and shoulders pattern. I used the weekly chart to help highlight this setup. I also found someone who made a simplified Wyckoff chart showing accumulation, spring, distribution, and back down. It feel it shows the same head and shoulders pattern.
vantagefx.com/wp-content/uploads/2018/12/WyckoffArtboard-1-1024x647.png
Folks who are adverse to Wyckoff, should get the H&S as it's a simple/common pattern people identify and trade on daily.
In the past i've tried to call play-by-play what i think BTC will/should do, and I can't seem to time things exactly (no surprise) so I'm just going to keep this high-level and suggest the following key points I expect.
1. I believe BTC can go higher to fill out the right shoulder. 42K would be fine, but this isn't a requirement.
2. Though I draw a drop as a straight line, the price action will not be a straight drop, nothing is, it will zig-zag and go sideways some.
3. I believe BTC will finish retracement at around 15k-21K and go sideways.
4. I believe this run up started in March 2020 with the pullback and spring, 100% retracement would be around 8-11K. Previous run ups/downs didn't retrace 100% until accumulation finished and the spring event pulled BTCs price back one last time. I believe that after some time, we could see BTC accumulate, and pull back around 8-15k. This may be a quick event, or it may not occur if there is a super strong bounce.
Now if BTC moves simply up to 45K or higher, instead of down, I'd question this H&S view and consider the bear run ended early. The only problems i have with an early end is that i don't think it would be healthy for BTC for a couple reasons:
1. I don't believe there will be room for a large run up maybe we touch 50k... but I don't believe we can go from 30k to 65K. Elon helped push BTC from 39k up and it rocketed on a lot of hype. Without that same hype i don't think btc will see that price target anytime in the short run as many folks are still sore. BTC is having issues breaking 40k now, if it were trivial we wouldn't be going sideways, and if we are struggling in the 30s, i expect less momentum in the 40s and 50s in the short term barring a major catalyst.
2. Alt coins are eating BTCs lunch when it's over 30k... maybe even 20k. Alts are sort of an existential issue for BTC. When it drops in price it become dominant and the focus of all trading. When BTC is expensive it makes small percentage moves and isn't as good a play as cheaper coins like CRV, ETH, MRK, etc which can put up 10%-30% in a few days vs btcs 2-6%. If BTC doesn't drop, I'll put all my trading money in to alts, if btc drops i'll put 60%+ into BTC as I can feel confident it will go from 15K back to 30K... I just don't feel confident about BTC holding at 40K, as there was a lot of hype, it could happen. If BTC drops significantly, some of the ALTS may die and that could be good, some don't even have working products and feel like hype. Doge and Shib are jokes yet they are eating BTCs lunch due to Elon and this isn't good. His tweets made BTC skyrocket and plunge too... so i don't feel confident in the 40-60k range as i feel this was all Elon's manipulation some good, some bad.
I'm still hopeful about the future, I like seeing greater interest and adoption and am bullish long term, but bearish short term.
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