BTC Halving 2016/2020 Comparison

Who doesn’t love comparing apples to apples? Or how about halvings to halvings? Or correction to correction? Or one Bitcoin trip to the moon to another?
Yah, me too…

Disclaimer: This is not investment advice (you’ve heard this before). I am marking similarities between the 2016 and 2020 halvings. See for yourself, and deduce for yourself. What I say is based on my own inferences. Yours may be different, for better or for worse…

Explanation of Arbitrariness:
The Fib graphs and channels start on rock bottoms and end at price peaks. The reason why there are so many graphs is because I am “magnifying” each Fib level. For example, over the entire history of Bitcoin there are numerous supports between 1 -> 0.786. So I overlay a Fib graph that starts at 1 and ends at 0.786. If I find additional significant supports within that second graph, then I overlay a third Fib graph over one of the Fib levels of that second Fib graph. In sum, the fibonacci equation is fractal, as such the price action of Bitcoin is fractal. Layering multiple graphs will reveal endless support/resistance levels on any scale.

Let’s dive right in!

On the left, we have the 2016 halving in all its naked glory.
On the right, is the looming 2020 halving in all its anxiety-inducing magnificence.

Let’s review the 2016 halving to see if we can pinpoint some comparisons between the past and present, and hopefully foreshadow what may happen in May 2020.

PRE-HALVING 2016
In the Fall of 2015 a large impulse sent Bitcoin skyrocketing, but as December rolled around it was stopped cold by strong resistance at the 0.786 level (pink arrow).

Note: The multiple fibonacci graphs overlaid are fractal. The 0 -> 0.786 range of a full-history graph, has a second graph laid over it to show to the levels between 0 and 0.786. I did this three times. So the 0.786 level I am referring to is a level within the red graph’s 0 -> 0.786 level, which is a graph inside a third, larger fibonacci graph.
Back to the story…

Once stopping at the 0.786 level, it corrected to 0.618 (black arrow). This established a rather large, but confined price range leading up to the 2016 halving. After this correction it had a small impulse to the 0.236 Green Fib Level. After it corrected to 0.618 Green Fib Level in a tight trading range. From there it gradually impulsed back to the 0.786 Golf Fib Level right up to the 2016 halving (yellow arrow), with a nearly perfect track of the Blue Fib Channel 0-> 0.236 (marked with parallel orange lines). It had a brief red candle right on the nose of the halving, marking the resistance of the 0.786 Fib level and the impact of the change in mining costs at the time.

To review, it crashed after the big impulse, tried to recover and then flatlined with mild growth up to the halving.

POST-HALVING 2016
After the halving the rocket ship to the full moon officially launched. It is hard to predict where it will stop because of the sheer momentum behind it. However, as my brother tells me, “hindsight is 20/20.” So we clearly see this impulse stop at the 1.618 level of the Blue Fib Channel, or the candle stopping at the 0.0 level of the gold fib graph.
After the impulse was halted, it corrected to the 0.382 Gold Fib Level, or the 0.236 Blue Fib Channel is that’s what you prefer (black arrow). Keep in mind the specific levels and prices aren’t all that important as they change from halving to halving. With that said, the direction and magnitude of change is what tends to remain similar throughout time.

This trip through memory lane has concluded. Now, let us try to foresee the future.

PRE-HALVING 2020 (Now)
Amazingly, we begin this comparison with Bitcoin extreme volatility. The first stage is a large impulse (pink arrow) whose highest candle takes us to the 0.5 Gold Fib Level. From then on it crashes (black arrow) and again tries to rise beyond the 0.618 Gold Fib Level, but to no avail. Say hello to our new resistance. Now that we’re acquainted, we can see Bitcoin crash to the 0.786 Green Fib Level and extend a candle wick all the way to the 0.786 Gold Fib Level.

After suffering major losses through the fall and winter of 2019/2020, Bitcoin regains some self-confidence and tries another push towards the 0.618 Gold Fib Level (yellow arrow). This time there was major success. Not only did it break the 0.618 and the 0.236 Green Fib Level, but also stuck its toes beyond a major psychological barrier: $10,000.

IMPORTANT: If nothing else matters in this chart, recognize the similarity between the Green and Gold Fib Levels (blue circle). In both 2016 and 2020 the price impulsed to the 0.236 Green Fib Level in February of that year, which resides between the 0.618 -> 0.786 Gold Fib Levels. So an identical Fib level, within an identical Fib level, at around the same time. Spooky...

Thus far, we have compared the past to the past or present. Let us take a step towards the future, or should I say the moon…

In 2016, after touching the 0.786 resistance, it gradually corrected and maintained a trading range. From this range it slowly climbed until the 2016 halving. If the past is any predictor of the present, then our $10,000 euphoria will end in the next couple of weeks, and correct to a new support between the 0.5 -> 0.618 Green Fib Level (white line).

POST-HALVING 2020
After the halving I expect Bitcoin to do what it did in 2012 and 2016. The price action has a logical background, I suggest you read about Stock-to-Flow, mining production cost, and the Energy Value of Bitcoin.
Here’s an article on mining costs: medium.com/capriole/bitcoins-production-cost-88d889462ea7

I will not speculate on the magnitude of the price of Bitcoin post-halving, but I am certain of its direction:
To the Moon!