BTCUSD - we won't hit 40k until we hit it
Feb 5th '22, 12AM UTC --- good evening, here's a quick analysis of the BTC price action showing that it is not ready to reach 40k just yet, but might soon. Here I use the Phoenix Ascending, the Stochastic RSI and the regular RSI.
General market outlook - Over the past week BTC has been correcting to the upside along with stocks. Now that this slow upward trend seems to have paused for now, there is fear of another breakdown to 33k and below. I do not think it's likely to happen in the short term: that breakdown was initiated by a panic move in the stock market, but stock indices strongly bounced up from where they landed. We could consider that for now, the markets have "absorbed" some of the panic caused by recent US Fed reports, that's why I think that we are not to retest those lows in the next days.
Technical analysis, 1D time frame - On the Phoenix, we can see the lsma and rsi are hovering right over 50, which could lead us to think upward expansion is imminent. However I wouldn't be so quick to think that, because of how the two other indicators I use here are looking: the Stoch RSI is about to go below 80 and that could be the reason why the lsma will get temporarily rejected down at 50. (I am not an experienced user of the stoch). It has managed to make its way up here though, so it could retest level 50 by next week and potentially help us exit the current descending channel, but right now it's obvious we're not ready yet, right. Also, the regular RSI has just broken above an important (red dotted) dynamic resistance, while it doesn't necessarily mean the downward trend of BTC is over it shows that the RSI is on its way to recover to the upside. For now, as I expected the previous days, it's touched back down on that red line to find support and could then bounce up from it. in order to exit that major descending channel we've been trading in since ATH, I believe the 1D RSI would have to be above 40-45 at least though. Ultimately, it's still got a bit of work to do, and meanwhile we're still at risk of retesting 33k and below.
Thanks for reading!
General market outlook - Over the past week BTC has been correcting to the upside along with stocks. Now that this slow upward trend seems to have paused for now, there is fear of another breakdown to 33k and below. I do not think it's likely to happen in the short term: that breakdown was initiated by a panic move in the stock market, but stock indices strongly bounced up from where they landed. We could consider that for now, the markets have "absorbed" some of the panic caused by recent US Fed reports, that's why I think that we are not to retest those lows in the next days.
Technical analysis, 1D time frame - On the Phoenix, we can see the lsma and rsi are hovering right over 50, which could lead us to think upward expansion is imminent. However I wouldn't be so quick to think that, because of how the two other indicators I use here are looking: the Stoch RSI is about to go below 80 and that could be the reason why the lsma will get temporarily rejected down at 50. (I am not an experienced user of the stoch). It has managed to make its way up here though, so it could retest level 50 by next week and potentially help us exit the current descending channel, but right now it's obvious we're not ready yet, right. Also, the regular RSI has just broken above an important (red dotted) dynamic resistance, while it doesn't necessarily mean the downward trend of BTC is over it shows that the RSI is on its way to recover to the upside. For now, as I expected the previous days, it's touched back down on that red line to find support and could then bounce up from it. in order to exit that major descending channel we've been trading in since ATH, I believe the 1D RSI would have to be above 40-45 at least though. Ultimately, it's still got a bit of work to do, and meanwhile we're still at risk of retesting 33k and below.
Thanks for reading!
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