Struggling to Break the long term down trend.

22 Jun 2018

We'll have to see how the various markets react to the breakdown of the symmetrical Triangle pattern. There is an ascending Wedge on the chart that we are currently trading in 8600 should act as support, breakdown of that could fall to the next support.
I am using Martin Trend Candles on my chart with the early exit and stop loss to trade with the trend so not concerned where it goes. But bulls were definitely hoping for a break up on the triangle, next pressure point should be that convergence between the wedge support and the overall down trend line resistance, if it gets there. If bulls can control this should just be a swing low back up to continue trying to push up.

22 Jun 2018

Catatan

Market Reaction was a huge sell off! Short was initiated at 8701, using the Martin Trend Candles with a setting of 18 on the 2 Hr chart, this is where it triggered to short (This indicator draws breakout lines in the background and changes candle colour to indicate upward or downward trends). Switched to the 5min chart now to close as we are at a support level that hit on the 15/6 and on the 16/6, closed at 6344.

Symmetrical triangle indicates trend continuation, in this case the down trend, so that was the first drop, breakdown of the rising wedge pattern was Trend reversal, in this case the upwards trend that was forming.

6150 and 6050 would be the next supports. From there Willy Wu's 5600-5800 prediction would be the next bet. But we'll have to see how it all plays out. Could double bottom at 6050.

25 Jun 2018

Catatan

The supports were definitely found at the 6050 - 6150 range, but forming a LL (lower low) for 2018 means my new best guess for BTC is it’s heading for the 75% Correction line, which is 5000. Akin to 2014s 83% correction, it’ll be bad news if we head too far below tha though as corrections like this should decrease over time and would bring upon a bit of a crash if we go too far under. Willy Woo who uses the NVT estimates it will head to 5500-5700, so I need to correct that here. The NVT currently is way outside the normal NVT range indicating the ramp in price from December last year created a bubble the likes of 2011 which saw a 92% correction and 2014 which saw a 83% dip from the established high, it is worth having a look at how it works as when he mentioned this back when BTC was up near 8k I didn’t quite believe it, but now it is certainly more believable, especially coming from a bull.

I think we have entered a consolidation period here, where the bulls can get in and make some quick gains, possibly up to 6400 area before we start seeing more lows on the chart. Good short opportunities here as the falls will be big. We’ll just have to see what happens though.