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Sorry Bitcoin Bears, but the downwards trend has finished

Diupdate

Looking back at the historical long term chart you can clearly see that it has a long term upwards trend with periods of corrections in a downwards channel 3 times.

I've marked on my chart the lower and upper bands of the upwards trend and also the downwards corrections.

It is clear as day that the long term upwards trend has continued, it has broken up out of the latest downwards correction and has broken above key support/resistance levels.

If you do not agree with this chart I'd love to hear your thoughts.

I'll also share zoomed in versions of this chart in comments.

Catatan

Catatan

Add in the Wyckoff Accumulation and Re-accumulation patterns that can be seen on the daily chart:

Catatan

For transparency and to show that I've had the same view for some time and to show results of previous analysis and not just putting them on the chart in hindsight, here is some analysis I posted on 9th September predicting the "spring" and the "jump across the creek" stage of the re-accumulation pattern.. BEFORE IT HAPPENED.

Catatan

Add Elliot Waves in to the mix:

Catatan

I'm predicting that this current wave will end around the 45k mark as highlighted on the below chart.... which will complete the purple ABC correction and blue wave 1 (as shown on the first elliot wave chart above).

This will then lead in to a correction wave 2, which im predicting won't come below the area and that's when the real volumes will start to pick up and the markup stage really starts to go...

Early price predictions for a market top are around $205-230k.... how long that may take and what year / month that may come isn't part of my analysis... I just ride the trend however long that may take. That is also entirely speculative at the moment and further updates as the market plays out will be required.

Catatan

Zooming in closer and looking at these final 5 waves, you can see a Wyckoff Distribution pattern forming on the 1h chart.

This is goinf to be the start of an ABC correction on the wave "1-2" on the bigger timeframe.

The below chart highlights how waves and wyckoff can be seen on the charts and utilising both ideas together:

Catatan

How that looks on the bigger chart:

Catatan

Marked up a bit better:

Catatan

Update:

This is looking like it is forming an ending diagonal for this 5th wave.

Catatan

This is getting really squeezed now, it's going to burst up to the UTAD soon I think:

Catatan

The Wyckoff Distribution pattern I had been watching did not complete and the correction waves have now begun, which is why I was suggesting not to go long.

This has now suggested that the Blue Wave 1 has now completed following the Purple ABC Wave and is now going to Blue Wave 2.

I am now expecting a corrective pattern such as an "ABC" down to wave 2 and expect this to be down to between $31,000 -$35,000.

Daily chart:

Weekly chart:

Catatan

This ABC correction pattern will consist of 5-3-5 waves (5 waves to A, ABC correction to B and 5 waves down to C).

You can see my forecast of the A and B waves on the below chart, but this is entirely speculative at the moment, so don't take it as a trading signal.

Once we've had the A-B waves we can then measure a target area for the end of the C wave using fibonacci and I'll keep updating as this correction plays out.

Catatan

After re-analysing I don't think we have finished the 5 waves up yet and the correction has not started yet. I now think the move down was still part of the wave 3-4 of the 5 waves up.

See updated chart below:

Catatan

Target area for the last wave up after re-analysing $45500-$47500.

Catatan

Prediction vs where we currently are, it is gone to the area I'd expect the red wave 2 to end (highlighted on the blue box and wave 3 starting:

Catatan

Update with measured targets for each wave.

Also note the RSI breakout at the bottom is also indicating the upwards move.

Catatan

It's been a few days since I last posted an update as I have been busy, plus the market seems to have just consolidated a bit.

I still believe we are going up, but it has just taken a bit of a different shape to what I had predicted.

The RSI that had previously broke out re tested the trend line / oversold range and has came back up.

The shape it looks to be forming is a megaphone shape and I'm expecting one last rally up to around $46,000

See below chart:

Catatan

Please also be aware that the alternative scenario to this is that I've got my Elliott wave wrong and we are in the downwards correction already.

See the alternative scenario below:

Catatan

Quick update...

The original 5th blue wave didn't play out how I thought it was, but as you can now see, I've been updating the red waves as the market reveals itself (you can never predict what's going to happen 100%).

Here's my thoughts now:

Catatan

I would not be surprised if it did something like this to wipe out stop losses of anyone that has gone long, make people go short and then wipe their stop losses out too.

Catatan

Merry Christmas everyone, hope you all had a great day.

I've been with family through the festive period so haven't been on much and why there hasn't been any updates.

This is a perfect example of why I trade longer term and not short term / day trade.

Although it's gone against my shorter term analysis and I had the shorter term waves analysis wrong, it gives you chance to zoom out and look at it again and re-analyse after it goes against you.

I still believe we are going up to around 47k, but it's just taken a bit of time and more consolidation.

Please note - I'm not an expert and I do get things wrong (no one is ever 100% right), so this analysis could still be wrong and it could still go against this. This is not trade advice and you should do your own analysis and make your own decisions before making any trades and always manage your risk.

Catatan

Here's the bigger picture that I'm looking for:

Catatan

Happy new year everyone, hope you all had a good one!

Here is a quick update.... the leg down didn't quite make it to where I predicted in my last update and it has been caught by another line of a bull flag / pennant.

It is now breaking up and my next target is the blue box between - as shown in the chart.

Catatan

*** Update***

I have changed the target area (marked up by the blue box) as I expect 1 last leg up to around 47k.

Catatan

***Update***

This has now had a 5th wave failure and this can be seen on the chart below.

5th wave failures can occur if the market loses momentum and especially if the 3rd wave extends more than 161.8% on the fibs (which it had but I just don't have it marked up on the chart).

This can now be the start of the correction wave I have been suggesting for some time:

Catatan

Sorry for the lack of updates, I've been busy irl and it's also been a bit of a complex correction and bullish momentum has been fading.. this is all possible signs that a correction is due.

It has reached my target area around 47k (it actually went slightly higher to as marked up on my chart below:

On the daily chart you can see that I have marked up where I'm expecting the correction to end between $31-35k before the trend picks up again.

You can also see that the daily candle is forming a rejection candle which is also indicative of a correction happening here. The daily candle has not closed yet however, so this has not confirmed yet. The following day would need a closed candlestick for confirmation to trade based off that too.

In summary, I'm expecting price to come down, but as we are in a bullish trend, I don't reccommend trading against the trend as it can pick up momentum at any point and a correction does not necessarily have to happen.

If price comes down to my target area of around $31-35k then I would see this as an ideal buy zone but I would do your own analysis and make your own decisions.

Catatan

Love it when you can look at your predictions in hindsight and compare the two. If this isn't accurate, I don't know what is 🫣

Catatan

The correction I have been warning about is now in full swing.

The "A" wave may not have quite finished yet but I'm looking for the "B" to come up to around 44.5k - 46.5k and then come back down to between - 35k.

Catatan

Update:

As per usual my predictions have been pretty accurate and it is looking pretty similar to what I had forecasted so far.

There is still room for a bit more upside, before coming back down.

See chart below:

Catatan

UPDATE:

The blue "ABC" zig zag pattern went up a little further than I posted last but it has now started to form another pattern I was watching for on the black "ABC".

It has started to form a flat correction pattern between the blue 61.8% and 78.6% Fibonacci levels I have marked up.

I expect the price to come back to the 61.8% fibs level around the 37.5k level before another bullish run which takes us to new highs.

Watch this space and get ready for the bulls.

As ever... this is not trade advice, just my own opinion, do your own analysis, make your own decisions and manage your risk!

Good Trading!

Catatan

Daily chart:

Catatan

Weekly chart:

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All time chart:

Catatan

Wyckoff update:

Catatan

This is an alternative correction I'm watching out for:

Catatan

Update:

It seems like it is going up to where I posted last as my alternative correction I was keeping an eye on.

This can play out in 2 ways as shown in the charts below:

Irregular Flat

Running Flat

Catatan

Daily chart with the irregular flat pattern:

Catatan

Update:

Looking at how this chart is shaping up, it is looking like a bull trap / manipulation occurring.

A lot of retail / inexperienced traders will be looking at this as a breakout and go long here.

With experience you can start to recognise when traders are being fooled and the market makers are just playing with you to trap you in to long positions only for the market to then reverse and crash down again because the market makers are hunting your stop losses.

I've marked up where most stop losses will be set by the red lines (not the dotted ones).

I think the market makers will be hunting these soon and the C wave I've marked up coming below these.

See chart below:

Catatan

Hello all and sorry for the lack of updates, I've been busy with my day to day life.

I did mean to post an update saying it looks like the correction I had been posting about had already happened due to the behaviour of price not coming down at all.

This goes to show you cannot be right all of the time and that when I said do not trade against the trend as the bulls will pick up at any point, was proven to be true here.

I have now updated my correction pattern and added in the new 5 waves (black) on to my chart, along with adjusting the fib measurements for the purple wave.

As we have approached the ath of SWB:69K I expect there to be some resistance from the bears and a small correction / consolidation pattern before it continues up to around the 100k mark.

Catatan

To add to my last post - Another correction / consolidation pattern will be due somewhere between 81k and 95k

GDuBFX

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