BTC!! Although I'm long, the medium term is CLEARLY BEAR!!!
Full disclosure - I am long BTC and it makes up 85% of my long term portfolio. I don't leverage trade or short. But - I really enjoy this TA stuff. Since we broke the parabola everyone has been desperately trying to figure out the direction this goes next. I would say that there's about a 60% chance we will be visiting the 9K level in the next 2-3 weeks, or lower (7.6K or 7K).
Yes, we're in a symmetrical triangle with declining bull volume - but notice the bear volume (sorry, forgot to show it)... it looks fairly constant with no dropoff. This indicates to me there is selling going on, all the way down. Buyers do not have confidence in this price right now! Somewhat contradictorily - look at the BTC longs vs. shorts ratio (tradingview.com/symbols/spread/BITFINEX:BTCUSDLONGS/BITFINEX:BTCUSDSHORTS/).
There is a massive, massive number of longs out there, relative to shorts. When there is a massive amount of shorts versus longs, that can provide the "fuel" for BTC to have parabolic runups, as shorts need to buy up their positions to cover liquidations. The opposite is going on here - we have a massive setup for a powerful "long squeeze."
The clincher for me - and I can't stop noticing this- RSI has finally dropped below critical support levels (tradingview.com/x/N2NfRXaz/) which indicate to me the bulls have lost their nerve. Ever since March of this year, RSI has not dropped below 50%, which has provided support the entire runup from around 4k to now. Currently, we are wicking deeply into that support area. I don't think it's going to hold.
So, to sum up - I think the best thing to do if you're a trader is to short the 7K and 9K areas if you're more the gambling type. We are still in a bull trend and I *do* *not* think we are going down below 7K. I think if we do, the bull market is over, which would make no sense. If you're more conservative, stay in cash and set your buys for these areas.
If you're me - just stay calm and DCA! I'm still convinced BTC will be in the six-figures by 2021-2022. Smile, and enjoy the ride.
-Dr. Geoff
Yes, we're in a symmetrical triangle with declining bull volume - but notice the bear volume (sorry, forgot to show it)... it looks fairly constant with no dropoff. This indicates to me there is selling going on, all the way down. Buyers do not have confidence in this price right now! Somewhat contradictorily - look at the BTC longs vs. shorts ratio (tradingview.com/symbols/spread/BITFINEX:BTCUSDLONGS/BITFINEX:BTCUSDSHORTS/).
There is a massive, massive number of longs out there, relative to shorts. When there is a massive amount of shorts versus longs, that can provide the "fuel" for BTC to have parabolic runups, as shorts need to buy up their positions to cover liquidations. The opposite is going on here - we have a massive setup for a powerful "long squeeze."
The clincher for me - and I can't stop noticing this- RSI has finally dropped below critical support levels (tradingview.com/x/N2NfRXaz/) which indicate to me the bulls have lost their nerve. Ever since March of this year, RSI has not dropped below 50%, which has provided support the entire runup from around 4k to now. Currently, we are wicking deeply into that support area. I don't think it's going to hold.
So, to sum up - I think the best thing to do if you're a trader is to short the 7K and 9K areas if you're more the gambling type. We are still in a bull trend and I *do* *not* think we are going down below 7K. I think if we do, the bull market is over, which would make no sense. If you're more conservative, stay in cash and set your buys for these areas.
If you're me - just stay calm and DCA! I'm still convinced BTC will be in the six-figures by 2021-2022. Smile, and enjoy the ride.
-Dr. Geoff
Catatan
Sad looking bounce. Right now, looks exceedingly anemic and with very little volume accompanying it. Still, it's early.... but my bet is it will peter out and this triangle will collapse.
Catatan
hcm03.ns2cloud.com/sf/learning?destUrl=https://va-hcm03.ns2cloud.com/learning/user/deeplink_redirect.jsp?linkId=ITEM_DETAILS&componentID=36982&componentTypeID=VA&revisionDate=1539877260000&fromSF=Y&company=VAHCM03&_s.crb=e9b1xEtxDN2LTnAV8PFGxzX9MrE%3dOK, so that triangle is NO MORE. Have to start looking at levels and EMAs as potential bounce points. 50 EMA is at around 10K (also a big even). 9.4K is a previous level of support. 7.6 is the bottom of this triangle as a target, and 7.4 is another major area of previous support. Around 7K and change (currently 7136) is the 200 EMA.
So, if I had to bet, there's a 7K "zone" you'd probably want to target. I could see 10K and 9.4K being places where we pause, but at this point I think it has too much momentum. We goin' down!!!
Catatan
Better image for yah: Catatan
Getting very close to the first critical support at the approximate 9.2 zone....Catatan
First target reached. The question is - will it keep going? I don't think 8.5 will hold a lot of support if 9.2 goes. I know, I know, 8.5 is a major fib level (IIRC) and also an EMA, I believe. But, I also think it's a level everyone is watching - so I think 7K is where the bottom of this is.... again, if we break 9.2K support.
Catatan
Note how well 9.4 has held as support (just click "play" on the above idea). However, this support is being defended with very low volume, and I think it's just a matter of time before it breaks. I didn't even draw 8.5K as a level. I think it's going to be ignored, we're either going to reverse from here (unlikely, I give it 30% chance), or we're going to see a high-volume v-shaped reversal from the 7.3K zone as I've sketched out above.
If 7.3K doesn't hold, then we're going to have to throw all of this TA and start talking about some very scary scenarios, methinks....
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Pernyataan Penyangkalan
Informasi dan publikasi tidak dimaksudkan untuk menjadi, dan bukan merupakan saran keuangan, investasi, perdagangan, atau rekomendasi lainnya yang diberikan atau didukung oleh TradingView. Baca selengkapnya di Persyaratan Penggunaan.