The Binary moment of our market

24 Apr 2020

I has become incredibly interesting how the markets (both stock and Bitcoin) sit and hover around the 50% retracement of the big move from a month ago.

I am glad for posterity's sake that on March 24th (a big up day) I put out to many of my trading groups that I called the bottom... in a tounge-in-cheeck joking sort of way... about how my Oatmeal Indicator worked. The day that I noticed Oatmeal (my staple breakfast product) was back on the shelves in the grocery store was "the bottom". It signaled the end, or at least the beginning of the end, of our supply chain disruption and culmination of peak fear and uncertainty.

I think it is important on a more philosophical level the meaning of that observation. That as life showed signs of returning to normal the price of All The Things began to mean revert.

Once again the price of All The Things sit at the halfway point. We are just about to re-open the economy. We don't know if the worst of times is past us of if we might have a resurgence of COVID-19. Information to this end is often contradictory and inconclusive. Therefor the end result of the near future is really a 50/50 shot. Price reflects this prospect as it does all known information in the market.

I cannot say with certainty what will happen as a trader... but as a contrarian trader I will make a call. For well over a month I have consumed the daily feed of Fear, Uncertainty, and Doubt (FUD). Through all of the 'experts' predicting the end of the world, or the end of markets, or the end of the US Dollar, etc. I've begged the question... "what if it isn't the end of the world?" What if, we do actually decided to continue this great experiment called civilization after 1918, 1665, or 1347? I think in the end we will decide that the REWARD of living in our modern, globalized world is worth the RISK of which we have just been reminded.

My call, just go against the prevailing media sentiment, is that we will be back at the market highs by the November election. Happy trading :)