BitcoinDiupdate Bitcoin rally is weakening, starting to make an H&S
I have copied a few lasts updates of my previous analysis. I just want you guys to read it again, look it up to understand better what i sam saying here, because you get the chart of that moment with it!
On this one we see, for this rally to stay in full force, we have to stay above that blue line you see in the update above. For this rally to stay strong, everything above that green area is also very bullish. If we drop below it, towards the 7800/7700 (max) i still see a wave up in the low 9K's. In summary, the stronger the move, the higher this rally will go!
This H&S is not a real one, some of you might think why i say levels that go through the neckline and breaking the pattern. First of all, it's an extremely ugly H&S (probably why i am the only one here on TV saying we have one). But like i have said many times before, TA is not looking at pictures, it's a story! H&S is making a higher low (right shoulder) and breaking a very big resistance where price got sold of several times (the neckline). The market doesn't see this H&S, so the neckline level is less significant.
One last thing for now, the 8700/8800 which was THE turning point last week, where i said very clearly several times that those levels were the key point for the market to go towards the 7500 and that the 8300 low would not even be the slightest support. We all saw what happened. Anyway, now we see again that this level is a big resistance so far, and it will not break easily.
Okay, so we did see a drop from the high, as i predicted there was a big chance it would do. Seen to many fake breakouts lately. I just convinced this the the work of whales/hedge funds. Still a 500+ drop from the high, gold mine for a leveraged trader :). Anyway the market seems to do it's very best to go higher from here, it's trying to make a parabolic move to break the 9K, the strength it's showing it's realistic option, but my guess is it will drop out that pattern and make another correction towards the 8200 and hopefully even lower. IF we drop towards the 7800 it would scare many long positions out of the market again. Than it would be ideal to make another rally up again with out all those people.
Okay for now, i am starting to get more mixed signals now. The bull rally is still strong, but it's starting to show some small weaknesses. The 8700 is still a very big resistance where it just can't even get close to and stay there to get a chance to break it. It's getting sold quite fast. There are 2 options of course for that,
1: We all know how i have been sharing my theory on whales lately and what their tactics are, So it just could be they are setting up another big rally up. How, because they now the market has turned bullish for the short term, so they are selling each attempt it's getting close to the 8600/8700. With what are they selling? they are selling all the positions they bought at the 7300/7600. Why are they selling here? They are attracting more short positions in the market again, who most probably put their stops around the 8700/8800. So what happens IF we push through? As usual, you so a big spike up because short's are closing with market orders and for the ones who want to wait for the breakout, probably wont even get the chance!
2: We are starting to see an H&S developing here now, with the neckline around 8100. Volume is slowly dropping which is confirming this idea. So i still think we will see a drop towards the 7800 support area. In the bullish scenario we drop to the neckline but the H&S fails and we see a fast rally up to the 8700 and will most probably so a break of that level. Bearish scenario, the neckline breaks and we drop towards the 7500/7600.
For now, i will probably short this if we drop below the 8500/8400, and i might go long if we break the 8700, but i just don't like going long because it's a counter trend move and we have not made a real corrections since this rally from the 7250.
Please like, don't let me ask for it
On this one we see, for this rally to stay in full force, we have to stay above that blue line you see in the update above. For this rally to stay strong, everything above that green area is also very bullish. If we drop below it, towards the 7800/7700 (max) i still see a wave up in the low 9K's. In summary, the stronger the move, the higher this rally will go!
This H&S is not a real one, some of you might think why i say levels that go through the neckline and breaking the pattern. First of all, it's an extremely ugly H&S (probably why i am the only one here on TV saying we have one). But like i have said many times before, TA is not looking at pictures, it's a story! H&S is making a higher low (right shoulder) and breaking a very big resistance where price got sold of several times (the neckline). The market doesn't see this H&S, so the neckline level is less significant.
One last thing for now, the 8700/8800 which was THE turning point last week, where i said very clearly several times that those levels were the key point for the market to go towards the 7500 and that the 8300 low would not even be the slightest support. We all saw what happened. Anyway, now we see again that this level is a big resistance so far, and it will not break easily.
Okay, so we did see a drop from the high, as i predicted there was a big chance it would do. Seen to many fake breakouts lately. I just convinced this the the work of whales/hedge funds. Still a 500+ drop from the high, gold mine for a leveraged trader :). Anyway the market seems to do it's very best to go higher from here, it's trying to make a parabolic move to break the 9K, the strength it's showing it's realistic option, but my guess is it will drop out that pattern and make another correction towards the 8200 and hopefully even lower. IF we drop towards the 7800 it would scare many long positions out of the market again. Than it would be ideal to make another rally up again with out all those people.
Okay for now, i am starting to get more mixed signals now. The bull rally is still strong, but it's starting to show some small weaknesses. The 8700 is still a very big resistance where it just can't even get close to and stay there to get a chance to break it. It's getting sold quite fast. There are 2 options of course for that,
1: We all know how i have been sharing my theory on whales lately and what their tactics are, So it just could be they are setting up another big rally up. How, because they now the market has turned bullish for the short term, so they are selling each attempt it's getting close to the 8600/8700. With what are they selling? they are selling all the positions they bought at the 7300/7600. Why are they selling here? They are attracting more short positions in the market again, who most probably put their stops around the 8700/8800. So what happens IF we push through? As usual, you so a big spike up because short's are closing with market orders and for the ones who want to wait for the breakout, probably wont even get the chance!
2: We are starting to see an H&S developing here now, with the neckline around 8100. Volume is slowly dropping which is confirming this idea. So i still think we will see a drop towards the 7800 support area. In the bullish scenario we drop to the neckline but the H&S fails and we see a fast rally up to the 8700 and will most probably so a break of that level. Bearish scenario, the neckline breaks and we drop towards the 7500/7600.
For now, i will probably short this if we drop below the 8500/8400, and i might go long if we break the 8700, but i just don't like going long because it's a counter trend move and we have not made a real corrections since this rally from the 7250.
Please like, don't let me ask for it
Catatan
A zoom in, that green area around 8450, should be a support for the bulls for the coming hours. If we drop below that level, chances increase allot we see that H&S forming what i am talking aboutCatatan
For the ones who find it interesting, get use to reading at least the previous analysis, so you wont miss out on a few facts or patterns i have discussed.Catatan
Still looking strong on the 1min chart. If we drop below that blue area i will open a small short position, otherwise i will stay on the sideline (probably)Catatan
A few days ago, i had very thankful follower who wanted to give a tip for all the good trades i have given and of course for all the time and effort i put into this to make this available for you guys. It's completely voluntarily of course, and i have never asked for it to anyone, just to be clear about that. But i have to say, it's quite inspiring of course, most of all i got my wife off my back a bit with her complaining that i spend to much time on TV :)So if anyone feels grateful and most probably made some very big wins because of me, feel free to send me a PM. I don't know how it normally works here, i have no experience with it
Catatan
The generous follower was Snacks by the way, thanks again, really appreciated :)Catatan
For the ones who are interested in the normal stock markets. I think we will see a small dip today, just below the lows of last week. Than another rally up towards the high creating a very big bull trap. From those levels i will open a very big short position because i think wave 3 of the long term bear market will start than. I will try and post something again one of these daysCatatan
If we bounce off that yellow area, it's 90% certain we make another attack of at the 8650/8700 and 50% chance we break it. But i wont go long nonetheless Catatan
Bulls are still fighting, defending the blue support area, i am ready to take on a small short positionCatatan
I will try to do it differently next time, but for now here are a few addresses BTC: 1LNkJ5CiXBFsm5U23aUcNXvDzcqiCfYwVx
ETH: 0x0cc156b3c041de85437464fe4379377fdd387d02
LTC: LVkN32eCLDdPAVUgVikCYwg1EhP6iDjyfU
:)
Catatan
Bulls and bears are fighting right now. Bulls are defending the blue support level, trying to make a very small inverse H&S, but if failed. So i think it's 75% chance we drop. I have my sell order ready if we drop below the 8450ish (blue support level). AGAIN, small position for a risky trade. This is trading within a consolidation, most difficult and with the most risk. Think about it this way, IF it becomes a loosing trade, you should still be able to laugh about it :) It should be that small. Only trade big at tops and bottomsCatatan
Keep up the likes guys :) i am getting closer to getting in the top 5 of top authors :) Followers are finally getting close the 1000. Looks like people are finally seeing that they missed out some huge trades not following me sooner :). Thanks for the support guys :)tradingview.com/people/
Catatan
This could be the bulls last attempt to defend against a drop towards 8300 or lower.Catatan
If it takes longer i won't be making the trade anymore and i will take a half day off :)Catatan
Remember this update? Where i said it was trying to make a parabolic break out. Here we can see a clear triangle forming, but bulls don't get your hopes up, it's really a 50/50 chance. A rally like this just needs a correction. Why, because no real big volume will buy at these levels, to much uncertainty. Rather see a correction to 7800/8000 to see if the market will buy it there with a confirmed higher low. That would give much more confidence to break the 8700. For now it's all guessing of course.
Catatan
We will get our answer any minute now i think. Look at that pattern, bulls are still defending it Catatan
I am short now at 8550 with a stop at 8625Catatan
It's only a very small position people!!!Catatan
Hahaha, still laughing :) That's it for now guys. Going away and will do something useful instead of watching this sideways actionCatatan
Clear break with high volume! Good luck for the bulls :)Catatan
I think if it can push through above the 8800 than stop will get triggered and buying volume will increase. If it does not push through right now, it could drop again to 8500ish and make another attemptCatatan
The flag is holding up very good, suggesting 9100 within the hour. Catatan
I made it, top 6 of the top authors today :) LOL Thank you guysCatatan
Catatan
Look at OMG, like have mentioned a few weeks now, it's one of the strongest. Almost 50% up already :)Catatan
Bitcoin has managed to create a bigger inverse H&S that targets 9900ish. Look at the moves Bitcoin has been making again since the low. And now compare this to the rally we made when we broke the 9K a month ago. Slowly and steady without any drops. I knew the target of that wedge i showed you sunday was 9900, but i really did not think we would make that target. But now with that H&S also giving the same target i scratch myself again at the back of my head to why i jumped out at 7970 :) LOL. This is (sometimes) the downside to trading instead of swing trading. I will post this later on, maybe a new analysis
Catatan
I am even nr 4 now on the list :), thanks guysCatatan
This looks like a wedge, but it only counts when those to orange area's are small fake outs. But the most important thing, the volume picture is wrong for this to be a wedge. If volume was right, i would short it instantly and heavy. Now i am still thinking about it. And before i forget, normally after the last breakout we should see an acceleration down. But as i have mentioned many times before, the chart tells a story, not just a picture.WHat do i mean with this:
-We have a wedge (maybe)
-Volume is to high at the end
-No fast rejection and price dump from the high.
Just think about it, what if it IS a wedge, and because volume is higher than it should be (which means there are more buyers than it should have here), it supports the price from making a dive down and slowing this part of the wedge down.
Target of that flag was around 9100, if we fall short it's a weakness, or we could make one more jump to the 9100. As i am writing this, i have opened a small short position at 9665 and i will add again around 9100 with a stop around 9250. It's all (again) a small position
Catatan
Looks like we will get another 100/200 point jumpCatatan
cointelegraph.com/news/volumes-on-most-major-cryptocurrency-exchanges-are-fake-or-inflated-studyAnd again something proving that most Alts are very difficult to trade.
Catatan
Buyers are still in power, lets see if they can the higher Catatan
Where i have mentioned that i opened my short position at 9665, that had to be 8965 :)Catatan
I am trying to post a new analysis, but i keep getting an error. So i will post it here for now, and will try it again laterCatatan
Bitcoin has been go higher slowly, steady and controlled, just like we did when we broke the 9K a month ago. Since i went long around 7400 and got out at 7970 (i was waiting for a bull flag to jump in at 7800/7700 again but i missed it), i have been waiting for 2 things to enter a normal trade. That is to go long if price would drop towards the 7800/8000 or to build up a big short position again if we get between 9000/10000. Now we clearly have not made a correction of this rally to 7800 so i have been waiting patiently for my entry points (with the exception of a few small trades). Thing is, i am a bit confused about what to do in the meantime, there are just many mixed signals. We have that wedge i showed you a few days ago which predicted a relief rally. The target of this wedge is 9800/9900. But a day ago i thought we would go towards 9200/9400 max, not reaching it's target and therefore showing a big sign of weakness. But the bulls have created an inverse H&S (ugly one but still) with the same target as the descending wedge.
Now, we have created a new rising wedge. But this same wedge is also the inverse H&S. About this rising wedge i have posted an educational analysis, please read that one first to understand it a little bit better.
That purple support line is the neckline of the inverse H&S. This should be a very strong support level now (8600/8700). I really can't give an good trade now, what i can say is this, if i was still long now, i would close half my position here at 8950 and i would leave the rest with a stop around 8400/8500 with the possibility we go towards the 9800.
In my previous analysis i opened a small short position at 8965, for a small trade. I don't have a target yet, but i have a stop around 9200. As you can see i drew 3 possibilities.
-The green one is the most boring one and the less likely to happen, that is going sideways between 8400ish and 9200ish and slowly going higher (these levels are based on a pure
guess)
-The red one is the strongest one, saying we will stay above the purple neckline and go to the 9900 within a few days. This one has the biggest chance
-The purple one is the one i want to happen, getting another chance to go long and to close above the 9000 and to start to build up a big short position in the higher 9K's
My bigger picture plan is still the same since i got out in the high 7K's with my short position from 9800. I still expect 6K and most probably even 4K prices.
For now the market is still looking very strong, looks like it is trying to make another 200 point jump, if it does that i will add again around 9100. Still a small position! To give you perspective, If i could add at 9100, my total is still only 10% of what i would do if i am able to go short around 9800 again.
For the ones on the sideline, if you make a trade, keep it very small but it's probably even better to wait for a better entry point!
If you find this interesting, read some of my previous analysis, where i explain all my thoughts and trades
Catatan
For now, it still keeps hanging around the highs, the longer it hangs there the stronger it is. It is trying to make a similar pattern as we did below the 8700. It's all very short time frame, but if we break the 9000 again i expect it to break the resistance and make another wave up. If we break 8900 than the test would be 8800. Below this level the bullish power of this rally decreases.Catatan
I am out at 9030Catatan
Still looking to strong! Keeping the losses small! I am changing my plan slightly, i will only go short again if we drop out of that 'wedge'.Catatan
Target of that last flag is reached at 9150, price looks to be against the resistance line now. BUT, that resistance line is very difficult to place, each exchange shows a slightly different picture Catatan
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Pernyataan Penyangkalan
Informasi dan publikasi tidak dimaksudkan untuk menjadi, dan bukan merupakan saran keuangan, investasi, perdagangan, atau rekomendasi lainnya yang diberikan atau didukung oleh TradingView. Baca selengkapnya di Persyaratan Penggunaan.