I'm calling the bottom - $4,800 BTC/USD
Diupdate
Chart is based on log values, not USD price.
Calling a bottom is about as serious as it gets. Here's why I'm doing it.
A) This Elliot Wave impulse wave setup is almost a textbook setup. In order to get these counts, the price action has touched some strong floors, ceilings and most importantly, trendlines.
B) I believe in how a market "feels". That makes me a bad scientist but a good artist. This market has felt heavy for WEEKS now, and every rally has ended in disappointing reversals. I have felt like we have been heading to $4,800 for a while now, and if we break the $6,800 (+/-, there's ALWAYS a +/-), I will consider this set up confirmed.
C) The distances and levels of this setup comply with Elliot Wave theory as strongly as my mother made me comply with my curfew. :)
D) $4,800 was a unique level on the way up. We stalled there longer than we did from $2,000 to $3,000 and from $3,000 to $4,000. It took a few days to break through, and when we did, it didn't calm down until $6,000. So the "$5,000" line gives way to $4,800 in my mind. Also, the rate of change after $4,800 accelerated, and was the point at which I feel we became manic regarding BTC.
E) The deal-breaker: BTC/USD rebounds firmly off of $6,800, closing above $8,000 for a few days.
F) A lot of folks have been calling for April to be the bottom. Lots of reasons for that, one of which is that Americans all over are scrambling to cash out enough crypto, stock, bonds, IOUs, loan-shark debt and neighborhood kid shakedowns to pay income tax come April 17. There was a LOT of money made in investments last year, and I feel crypto has been a nice piggy bank for folks to raid. And for those who lost money, that sets you up for a nice loss claim on next year's taxes.
Mark Haines called the "Haines bottom" in March of 2009 for the U.S. stock market. If I'm right, we can all call this "Taylor's bottom", which usually means something else entirely.
Calling a bottom is about as serious as it gets. Here's why I'm doing it.
A) This Elliot Wave impulse wave setup is almost a textbook setup. In order to get these counts, the price action has touched some strong floors, ceilings and most importantly, trendlines.
B) I believe in how a market "feels". That makes me a bad scientist but a good artist. This market has felt heavy for WEEKS now, and every rally has ended in disappointing reversals. I have felt like we have been heading to $4,800 for a while now, and if we break the $6,800 (+/-, there's ALWAYS a +/-), I will consider this set up confirmed.
C) The distances and levels of this setup comply with Elliot Wave theory as strongly as my mother made me comply with my curfew. :)
D) $4,800 was a unique level on the way up. We stalled there longer than we did from $2,000 to $3,000 and from $3,000 to $4,000. It took a few days to break through, and when we did, it didn't calm down until $6,000. So the "$5,000" line gives way to $4,800 in my mind. Also, the rate of change after $4,800 accelerated, and was the point at which I feel we became manic regarding BTC.
E) The deal-breaker: BTC/USD rebounds firmly off of $6,800, closing above $8,000 for a few days.
F) A lot of folks have been calling for April to be the bottom. Lots of reasons for that, one of which is that Americans all over are scrambling to cash out enough crypto, stock, bonds, IOUs, loan-shark debt and neighborhood kid shakedowns to pay income tax come April 17. There was a LOT of money made in investments last year, and I feel crypto has been a nice piggy bank for folks to raid. And for those who lost money, that sets you up for a nice loss claim on next year's taxes.
Mark Haines called the "Haines bottom" in March of 2009 for the U.S. stock market. If I'm right, we can all call this "Taylor's bottom", which usually means something else entirely.
Catatan
A comment about FUD & FOMO ~ Fear, Uncertainty and Doubt & Fear Of Missing Out.It seems to me there are many buyers who misinterpret bearish market descriptions as FUD. This could not be more incorrect. A bearish prediction is no more FUD than a bullish prediction, and the bulls often spread more Fear ("HODL!"), Uncertainty (FOMO) and Doubt ("We're not at the top yet!") than do bears.
A prediction may be right, a prediction might be wrong, but as long as it's a solid prediction, it's anything but FUD. Market prediction, based on either fundamentals OR technical analysis, decreases fear, uncertainty and doubt, because it presents a responsible view on what will happen.
FUD is fog on the road, not knowing where one is or what is coming up. Bulls and Bears might be going the wrong direction, but they're not lost, and if they're wrong, missed something about the trail they were following.
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