Bitcoin looking for downside?
Hello Everyone,
These past few weeks have seen a lot of red with little upside. A lot of influencers and "analysts" on twitter are calling for a breakout. I generally flock opposite of the crowd. In my opinion, Bitcoin is in a bear market. It is below the 21EMA weekly, 200 MA Daily, 200 EMA daily, etc. What I am trying to say is that bitcoin is below every single indicator that tells us we are bullish , which means we are bearish . How long will it last? I'm not sure. My guess is that the market needs a cool off and needs the retail investors to sell off their "shit coins". There was also way too much leverage being used and the market could not handle it. There is hardly any retail interest to purchase and I believe institutions are driving the price down for lower prices in the long term.
Here are my indicators:
1. Below the 200MA Daily: this is the main indicator that decides bear/bull market. Being below makes bitcoin in a bear market.
2. Below the 21 EMA weekly: This has never been broken in a bull market. When it was, it indicated a bear market.
3. MACD on the buying side is fairly weak and we have not seen much momentum to push higher.
4. Hourly price action looks like a dead cat bounce every time the market "bounces" upward.
5. There is a lot of resistance on the upward side with little momentum to break it.
6. Symmetrical triangle in a bear market has a near 70% chance of breaking down.
7. There have been 2 bull traps on the potential "bounces" this indicates selling is coming.
I believe there is a lot of denial in the market. People are expecting a huge rally when that is the least likely outcome in this scenario. There is so much resistance ahead of us and I believe a slow chop down is coming. I would imagine that bitcoin will land somewhere in the 20s before a major consolidation to move back upwards. Remember, on the way upwards bitcoin had small periods of consolidation to continue moving upwards. I believe the same is happening on the downside. A large movement downwards just happened and bitcoin is consolidating for another move down.
With all of this said, this "bear" market could last a few weeks to a few months. At least short to mid term. I do not see a lot of reasons to start buying especially with how ugly the weekly/daily look. You may want to start looking into shorting if you're confident in your skills as a trader.
As always, be patient, have risk management, and good luck trading.
These past few weeks have seen a lot of red with little upside. A lot of influencers and "analysts" on twitter are calling for a breakout. I generally flock opposite of the crowd. In my opinion, Bitcoin is in a bear market. It is below the 21EMA weekly, 200 MA Daily, 200 EMA daily, etc. What I am trying to say is that bitcoin is below every single indicator that tells us we are bullish , which means we are bearish . How long will it last? I'm not sure. My guess is that the market needs a cool off and needs the retail investors to sell off their "shit coins". There was also way too much leverage being used and the market could not handle it. There is hardly any retail interest to purchase and I believe institutions are driving the price down for lower prices in the long term.
Here are my indicators:
1. Below the 200MA Daily: this is the main indicator that decides bear/bull market. Being below makes bitcoin in a bear market.
2. Below the 21 EMA weekly: This has never been broken in a bull market. When it was, it indicated a bear market.
3. MACD on the buying side is fairly weak and we have not seen much momentum to push higher.
4. Hourly price action looks like a dead cat bounce every time the market "bounces" upward.
5. There is a lot of resistance on the upward side with little momentum to break it.
6. Symmetrical triangle in a bear market has a near 70% chance of breaking down.
7. There have been 2 bull traps on the potential "bounces" this indicates selling is coming.
I believe there is a lot of denial in the market. People are expecting a huge rally when that is the least likely outcome in this scenario. There is so much resistance ahead of us and I believe a slow chop down is coming. I would imagine that bitcoin will land somewhere in the 20s before a major consolidation to move back upwards. Remember, on the way upwards bitcoin had small periods of consolidation to continue moving upwards. I believe the same is happening on the downside. A large movement downwards just happened and bitcoin is consolidating for another move down.
With all of this said, this "bear" market could last a few weeks to a few months. At least short to mid term. I do not see a lot of reasons to start buying especially with how ugly the weekly/daily look. You may want to start looking into shorting if you're confident in your skills as a trader.
As always, be patient, have risk management, and good luck trading.
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