Last fall before the bull market ?
Hello everyone,
A challenging market, to say the least. Carried away by the surge in recent weeks, cryptos experienced a decline yesterday, and a continuation of the decline still seems likely.
If it seems negative in the short term, it doesn't change anything in the medium and long term, don't worry!
What do the price and the market tell us? That we are in market breath and as always this is where traders sometimes start to panic... without them being right to do so.
**Analysis: **
We are very clearly in a triangle with a very solid resistance above, and a rather solid support below in the $3650. The market drops after the growth, it is normal. I remind you that in February, we made +25% on the btc, and that between March 01 and now, we are at +1%. So with a little hindsight, we can, for now, stay calm!
In the shorter term, we are in an upward channel of downward continuation, which, as its name suggests, is often a sign of a decline. Often, but not always. The statistics indicate a 87% probability of decline, in the classic market (book Le chartisme, by François Baron)... but we know that the crypto market has often come to contradict these statistics.
The indicators are relatively negative, but we are gradually approaching a situation of over-sell for the RSI, and a WT that is close to support. The moving averages are low and reassure us about the situation. We are on the support of Ichimoku's Kumo in h12.
In this rising channel, we could very well have a new wave with the 4200$ as an objective (on bitfinex), before having a bearish return. But at the moment, we are considering a probable decrease in the coming days on the support of $3600-$3700. This could then liquidate the short positions, and help a return to power by the bulls.
** A matter of adoption **
On the other hand, we remain totally positive about the market in the medium and long term. Because we are seeing an increasing number of adoptions. We see good news, new contracts, agreements, regulations, etc... and a fact that seems very representative to me, there are more and more job offers concerning blockchains and specialized sites. More jobs = more companies active in the sector = more professionalization of the sector = more adoption = more investment.
As a result, yes. We believe that it is more than likely that the coming months will be the months of a recovery. Not due to indicators, but to a market that is starting to mature, projects that are starting to emerge, and an acceptance of the corporate and political world on the interest of the blockchain. And let's be honest, a pump like the one we experienced in December 2017 did not give any chance to credibility among serious investors....
** My personnal strategy**
I'm right now with +/- 50% of my BTC position in USDT,
- 50% in USDT : buying order at $3700
- 50% in BTC : take profit at $4170 + stop loss at $3900 (for bitfinex), considering that if this level is reached there is no chance to have a last wave.
** Little note **
Remember that it is the long term that counts. School lasts for years, because it is an apprenticeship, a necessary maturation. The evolution of a portfolio is the same, it is built over time. To think otherwise would lead you to take reckless risks and risk big... very big.
We are there for the long term, we trade for long-term gains, and we are always there to help you if necessary.
We are all on the verge of a revolution. This revolution will be gentle, progressive and transparent, and it is the first and most patient actors who will be rewarded.
Have a good day, everyone.
A challenging market, to say the least. Carried away by the surge in recent weeks, cryptos experienced a decline yesterday, and a continuation of the decline still seems likely.
If it seems negative in the short term, it doesn't change anything in the medium and long term, don't worry!
What do the price and the market tell us? That we are in market breath and as always this is where traders sometimes start to panic... without them being right to do so.
**Analysis: **
We are very clearly in a triangle with a very solid resistance above, and a rather solid support below in the $3650. The market drops after the growth, it is normal. I remind you that in February, we made +25% on the btc, and that between March 01 and now, we are at +1%. So with a little hindsight, we can, for now, stay calm!
In the shorter term, we are in an upward channel of downward continuation, which, as its name suggests, is often a sign of a decline. Often, but not always. The statistics indicate a 87% probability of decline, in the classic market (book Le chartisme, by François Baron)... but we know that the crypto market has often come to contradict these statistics.
The indicators are relatively negative, but we are gradually approaching a situation of over-sell for the RSI, and a WT that is close to support. The moving averages are low and reassure us about the situation. We are on the support of Ichimoku's Kumo in h12.
In this rising channel, we could very well have a new wave with the 4200$ as an objective (on bitfinex), before having a bearish return. But at the moment, we are considering a probable decrease in the coming days on the support of $3600-$3700. This could then liquidate the short positions, and help a return to power by the bulls.
** A matter of adoption **
On the other hand, we remain totally positive about the market in the medium and long term. Because we are seeing an increasing number of adoptions. We see good news, new contracts, agreements, regulations, etc... and a fact that seems very representative to me, there are more and more job offers concerning blockchains and specialized sites. More jobs = more companies active in the sector = more professionalization of the sector = more adoption = more investment.
As a result, yes. We believe that it is more than likely that the coming months will be the months of a recovery. Not due to indicators, but to a market that is starting to mature, projects that are starting to emerge, and an acceptance of the corporate and political world on the interest of the blockchain. And let's be honest, a pump like the one we experienced in December 2017 did not give any chance to credibility among serious investors....
** My personnal strategy**
I'm right now with +/- 50% of my BTC position in USDT,
- 50% in USDT : buying order at $3700
- 50% in BTC : take profit at $4170 + stop loss at $3900 (for bitfinex), considering that if this level is reached there is no chance to have a last wave.
** Little note **
Remember that it is the long term that counts. School lasts for years, because it is an apprenticeship, a necessary maturation. The evolution of a portfolio is the same, it is built over time. To think otherwise would lead you to take reckless risks and risk big... very big.
We are there for the long term, we trade for long-term gains, and we are always there to help you if necessary.
We are all on the verge of a revolution. This revolution will be gentle, progressive and transparent, and it is the first and most patient actors who will be rewarded.
Have a good day, everyone.
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