Bitcoin (BTC/USD) daily timeframe

1 Okt

General Price Action:

• Current Price: Bitcoin is trading at approximately $63,024, showing mild bullish momentum with an increase of +0.61% on the day.
  
• Trendline Support: A rising trendline from the past year provides a strong foundation for Bitcoin’s upward trend. This line currently intersects around $48,000, suggesting that any significant pullback may find support near this level.
  
• Upward Trend: Bitcoin has been making higher highs and higher lows, which indicates a bullish trend over the past several months.
  

Resistance Levels:
Key Resistance Levels:

• The chart shows multiple resistance zones between $67,616 and $73,319. These areas are important for Bitcoin to clear before continuing a strong uptrend.
  
• These resistance zones are aligned with previous price rejections and liquidation zones, meaning that these areas may contain a large number of sellers looking to take profit or reduce exposure.
  
• $67,616 is the first resistance level to break, and if Bitcoin manages to breach this level with strong volume, it could target $70,000 and eventually $73,000.
  

Moving Averages:

• Short-Term and Long-Term Moving Averages:
  
• The green moving average seems to be the 50-day moving average, while the red moving average could represent the 100-day moving average. Both moving averages are upward sloping, reinforcing the bullish trend.
  
• Bitcoin is trading above both moving averages, which is a positive signal for the short to mid-term outlook. These averages can act as dynamic support levels in case of a pullback.
  

Liquidation Zones:
Heatmap Analysis: The chart includes a liquidation heatmap, which shows potential areas where leveraged positions may be liquidated:

• $70,000 to $73,000 appears to be a zone with significant liquidity, suggesting that many positions could be liquidated at those levels. This could increase volatility once Bitcoin approaches those price levels.
  
• Below $50,000, there are also several liquidation zones, indicating that if the price drops, there might be substantial support due to buyers stepping in at these levels.
  

RSI (Relative Strength Index):
Current RSI: The RSI indicator shows a value of around 56, which is neutral. The RSI is neither overbought nor oversold, which means there is room for Bitcoin to move in either direction depending on market conditions.

• In the past, peaks in the RSI have coincided with price corrections when it crossed 70 (overbought), and bottoms occurred when the RSI was below 30 (oversold). The current neutral RSI implies that the market is waiting for a catalyst to push the price in either direction.
  

Potential Scenarios:
Bullish Scenario:

• If Bitcoin can break through the $67,616 resistance, it is likely to test the $70,000–$73,000 region. A breach of these levels could lead to an extended rally as momentum buyers step in, and any liquidation of short positions could add fuel to the upside move.
  
• Target Levels: The next levels to watch after a successful breakout are $70,042, $71,876, and finally $73,319.
  

Bearish Scenario:

• On the downside, if Bitcoin fails to break resistance at $67,616, it could retrace to test support levels. The first strong support is likely to be around the 50-day moving average (approximately $58,000–$60,000).
  
• Trendline Support: A more significant drop could test the rising trendline support, which is currently around $48,000. A breakdown below this trendline would signal a shift in the bullish structure and could lead to further downside.
  

Conclusion and Trading Strategy:

Short-Term Strategy: Neutral to Slight Long

• Neutral Stance: Since Bitcoin is approaching key resistance around $67,616, it’s wise to maintain a neutral stance until there is confirmation of a breakout or rejection at this level.
  
• Long on Breakout: If Bitcoin breaks above $67,616 with strong volume, consider taking a long position, targeting $70,000 and $73,000.
  

Long-Term Strategy: Long

• Accumulate on Dips: As long as Bitcoin holds above its rising trendline and moving averages, the long-term outlook remains bullish. Any pullback toward the 50-day or 100-day moving average could offer a buying opportunity for long-term investors.
  
• Key Support Zones: Watch for potential dips to $58,000 and $50,000 as buying zones.
  

Risk Management:

• Stop-Loss: If taking a long position, consider placing a stop-loss below the 50-day moving average or the rising trendline, depending on your risk tolerance.
  
• Profit-Taking: Target the $70,000 and $73,000 levels for potential profit-taking in case of a breakout.
  

Overall, the chart shows a bullish structure supported by the trendline and moving averages, but caution is warranted near the $67,616 resistance. The neutral RSI suggests the market could go either way, so it’s important to watch key price levels for confirmation