BITCOIN WILL RISE HIGHER

22 Apr 2023

Judge Rules Bored Ape Yacht Club Ripoff NFTs Violated Yuga Copyright

A U.S. court in California has handed Yuga Labs, the company behind the popular Bored Ape Yacht Club (BAYC) NFT collection, a legal victory in the form of a partial summary judgment in its case against Ryder Ripps and Jeremy Cahen.


MY STRATEGY


Long

PT 1 37000-39000

PT2 42950


Below 15750
my setup is short

6 Mei 2023

Catatan

Fed’s Plans and Long-Term Investor Interest Could Send Bitcoin Beyond 30K Mark
Bitcoin (BTC) has been hovering precariously in the $29,000 region for over a month after showing a steady 11% increase during the same period. Such dynamics, after a protracted market freeze, could be signaling the possibility of a major bull run at the slightest hint of positive news backgrounds, especially from the regulator and institutional ends.

Present Fears
The vaunted $30,000 mark is seen as a serious resistance for Bitcoin’s price, which is evidenced by the recent rush of thousands of BTC holders to fix their profits in recent months. A total of a record $80 million were liquidated off the market in perpetual futures positions on April 26, giving the bears a good reason to start pondering the possibility of a price breakout in the very near future.

The events of late 2022 and early 2023, including the collapse of the FTX exchange, are likely the main drivers of long-term investor sentiments and market momentum. As the price of BTC continues to pick up the pace, the meager balances of crypto exchanges, which currently number a total of around 2.19 million BTC, are good evidence of ongoing accumulation of reserves before an impending appreciation of the asset.

Institutional investors are also in the same league, with the likes of MicroStrategy (MSTR) stockpiling an additional 7,500 Bitcoins to their portfolios in the last two months, bringing the total holding to around 140,000. With that number equaling approximately $4.1 billion at the current price, there is reason to believe that the company’s analysts are expecting a major price increase. The domino-like collapse of the banking sector in the United States is only fueling such belief as confidence in alternative value storage instruments like Bitcoin starts gaining weight.

Aiming High
Historical data on Bitcoin’s price performance is strong evidence to suggest that the current price will either be maintained or will go on the offensive by May. The saying “sell in May and forget” is proof thereof, though the market can decide to take a dip at any time as well.

Most analysts are convinced that Bitcoin is “destined” to reach a price level of around $40,000-45,000 in the third and fourth quarters of the year. The foundation for such anticipation is the ongoing search for bullish events in the market that could trigger a price increase. However, many experts are convinced that both institutional and retail investors should come to terms with Bitcoin possibly returning to a correction level of $25,000. Though at first glance, such a downshift could seem pessimistic, it does provide a favorable threshold for more investors to enter the asset in preparation for the next bullish cycle that would lead to the predicted price highs.

The Fed Factor
One significant event that could act as a catalyst for market growth is the recent Fed meeting, which resulted in a new 0.25% rate jump. The glaring risks of a recession and a raging banking crisis will be pushing the regulator to loosen the screws of its monetary policy, exerting significant pressure on both the cryptocurrency and stock markets.

Recent statements made by the Fed indicate that the United States has reached a critical level of public debt it can no longer support in light of the weakening global position of the US Dollar. With that in mind, the U.S. can start changing its economic policy, turning significant attention and pinning big hopes on the cryptocurrency market.

Through the Mists
Bitcoin’s price is highly dependent on supply and demand. At present, demand is lagging, since investors are looking for alternatives in commodities for storing value. However, sudden movements made by regulators like the Fed have always resulted in a sharp increase in demand for Bitcoin, as the asset is an untraceable investment instrument.

Another factor that could whip up Bitcoin’s price is the next halving, exactly one year away. With commodities markets in turmoil, BTC mining difficulty set to increase, and the U.S. banking system faltering, Bitcoin could be realistically looking at local maximum values anywhere between its current price of $30,000 and the predicted optimistic highs of $45,000 all the way by the end of the year.

6 Mei 2023

Catatan

BTC Bulls to Target $30,500 on Hopes of a US Soft Landing
BTC recoupled with the NASDAQ Composite Index on Friday, with the US Jobs Report easing recessionary fears. Regulatory activity remains a headwind.
On Friday, BTC gained 2.36% to end the session at $29,526.
US economic indicators defied the recession story, with the US Jobs Report supporting BTC and the broader crypto market.
The technical indicators are bullish, signaling a return to sub-$30,000.
On Friday, bitcoin (BTC) rose by 2.36%. Reversing a 0.66% fall from Thursday, BTC ended the day at $29,526. BTC broke through resistance at $29,500 for the first time in five sessions.

After a bullish morning, BTC fell to a US Job Report-fueled early afternoon low of $28,816. Steering clear of the First Major Support Level (S1) at $28,559, BTC rose to a late afternoon high of $29,691. BTC broke through the First Major Resistance Level (R1) at $29,270 to test the Second Major Resistance Level (R2) at $29,697 before easing back.

US Jobs Report Eases Recessionary Jitters but Refuel Fed Fear
It was a busy Friday session, with the US Jobs Report supporting a bullish afternoon.

Nonfarm payrolls jumped by 253k in April versus a forecasted 180k increase. In March, nonfarm payrolls rose by 165k. Significantly, average hourly earnings were up 4.4% year-over-year versus 4.3% in March. Economists forecast average hourly earnings to increase by 4.2%.

As a result of the better-than-expected NFP number, the US unemployment rate fell from 3.5% to 3.4%. Economists forecast the unemployment rate to rise to 3.6%.

The Jobs Report eased recessionary fears, supporting riskier assets. However, market bets on a 25-basis point Fed interest rate hike in June remained subdued. According to the CME FedWatch Tool, the probability of a 25-basis point June interest rate hike rose from 0.0% to 8.5%. The Jobs Report did wipe out bets of a June rate cut, with the chances of a rate cut falling from 9.2% to 0.0%.

The NASDAQ Composite Index responded to the US Jobs Report, rising by 2.25%, with the market reaction to the Apple Inc. (AAPL) earnings results providing further support.

6 Mei 2023

Catatan

The Day Ahead
It is a quiet day ahead, with no US economic indicators or corporate earnings for investors to consider.

US lawmakers and regulatory activity will influence, with investors needing to track SEC v Ripple case updates. Binance and Coinbase (COIN)-related news would also move the dial.

While the US government faces the risk of a default on payments and a banking crisis, the government and regulators continue to target the digital asset space. Binance and Coinbase are significant players in the US, leading to greater scrutiny.

6 Mei 2023

Catatan

Bitcoin (BTC) Price Action
This morning, BTC was up 0.22% to $29,592. A bullish start to the day saw BTC rise to an early high of $29,847 before easing back.

6 Mei 2023

Catatan

BTC needs to avoid the $29,344 pivot to target the First Major Resistance Level (R1) at $29,873 and resistance at $30,000. A move through the morning high of $29,847 would signal an extended bullish session. The crypto news wires should be crypto-friendly to support an extended rally.

In the event of an extended rally, BTC would likely test the Second Major Resistance Level (R2) at $30,219 and resistance at $30,500. The Third Major Resistance Level (R3) sits at $31,094.

A fall through the pivot would bring the First Major Support Level (S1) at $28,998 into play. However, barring a crypto event-fueled sell-off, BTC should avoid sub-$28,500 and the Second Major Support Level (S2) at $28,469. The Third Major Support Level (S3) sits at $27,594.

6 Mei 2023

Catatan

Looking at the EMAs and the 4-hourly candlestick chart (below), it was bullish signals. BTC sat above the 50-day EMA ($28,895). The 50-day EMA pulled away from the 100-day EMA, with the 100-day EMA widening from the 200-day EMA, sending bullish signals.

A hold above S1 ($28,998) and the 50-day EMA ($28,895) would support a breakout from R1 ($29,873) to give the bulls a run at R2 ($30,219) and $30,500. However, a fall through S1 ($28,998) and the 50-day EMA ($28,895) would bring the 100-day EMA ($28,807) and S2 ($28,469) into view. A BTC fall through the 50-day EMA would send a bearish signal.

6 Mei 2023

Catatan

Traders Take Profits After Report Reveals Strong US Job Growth
Technically speaking gold traded through a series of lower highs and strong support at $1980.
Market participants used the jobs report to actively engage in U.S. equities taking all three major indices higher. The Dow Jones industrial average gained 1.65%. The Standard & Poor’s 500 gained 1.85%, and the NASDAQ composite gained 2.25% in active trading today.
Gold Prices Drop as Investors Take Profit Despite Strong Fundamentals
Gold investors and traders also used this report as a reason to pull profits from recent gains in gold which had roughly a $100 trading range from Tuesday’s open at $1990 to yesterday’s high of $2083. Before the upside breakout in gold which occurred on Tuesday, May 2 gold pricing was contained in a narrow trading range between $1980 and $2020.
Technically speaking gold traded through a series of lower highs and strong support at $1980. This created an asymmetrical triangle pattern composed of a descending top and a flat bottom. Typically, this type of asymmetrical triangle occurs during a price correction and once pricing reaches the apex of the triangle market technicians look for a break to lower pricing. In rare instances, this pattern can be found during an uptrend as witnessed this week in gold.

Considering that the major fundamental factors that have moved gold substantially higher are still unresolved and worrisome today’s strong decline in gold prices could present an opportunity to buy the dip. There is still common ground that both Democrats and Republicans can sign off on as we get closer and closer to the date at which the government can no longer meet its obligations. Whether or not there are more midsize regional banks that could become insolvent is unknown. Combined these issues could certainly continue to be highly supportive of gold prices moving them higher.

However, gold enthusiasts got a reprieve today as gold futures dropped $30.80 or 1.5% with the most active June 2023 Comex contract currently fixed at $2024.90.

7 Mei 2023

Catatan

Bitcoin has been making a series of lower highs and higher lows, which has settled the crypto into a triangle pattern on the daily chart. The crypto is set to meet the apex of the triangle on May 14 and traders can watch for Bitcoin to eventually break up or down from the pattern on higher-than-average volume to indicate a future direction, although the pattern leans bullish.

The 50-day simple moving average has been acting as support and guiding Bitcoin higher since March 13. Over the last five days, Bitcoin has dropped to test the area as support and bounce. This suggests that if Bitcoin falls under the 50-day, it could be a good place to stop out a bullish trade.

Bitcoin has resistance above at $30,050 and $31.418 and support below at $28,690 and $27,133.

7 Mei 2023

Catatan

setup more bullish now

7 Mei 2023

Catatan

US Lawmaker Scrutiny Sends BTC into the Red
It was a quiet Saturday session, with investors continuing to respond to the US Jobs Report.

However, the bullish sentiment failed to extend throughout the session, with US lawmakers and the SEC weighing on investor appetite.

On Friday, news hit the wires of the US Department of Justice investigating Binance for possible breaches of sanctions against Russia. While crypto investors may be able to stomach increased regulatory scrutiny, the discovery of a sanctions breach would give the US administration a solid footing in its anti-crypto agenda.

However, repercussions of a breach could extend beyond the US borders. European investors and regulators may also respond to any findings that Binance facilitated sanction evasion.

Voyager Digital news and regulatory risk added to the bearish mood as investors moved on from the US Jobs Report. Next week, the US CPI Report could refuel bets of a 25-basis point June rate hike and a hard landing.

Closer to home, Ethereum co-founder Vitalik Buterin and the Ethereum Foundation may have contributed to a broad-based crypto sell-off. News of the Ethereum Foundation selling 15,000 ETH in response to Buterin selling just 200 ETH was bearish.

On November 12, 2021, the Ethereum Foundation sold 20,000 ETH. The sale preceded an extended sell-off that bottomed out in June 2022 with a low of $879.80. Just days before the sale, ETH had hit an ATH of $4,868.

7 Mei 2023

Catatan

Former Coinbase CTO Balaji Srinivasan lost a $1 million bet on Bitcoin’s rise. He bet BTC would reach $1 million by 17 June but conceded defeat before the deadline. “I burned a million to show everyone how the US government is printing trillions of dollars out of thin air,” the businessman tweeted.

The US president’s administration has proposed a 30% tax on crypto miners to make them more aware of the damage they are doing to the climate. The proposed tax will raise about $3.5 billion over ten years.

Robert Francis Kennedy Jr, a nephew of the 35th US President John F. Kennedy, criticised the SEC and FDIC for their “war on cryptocurrencies”, which he said had led to a banking crisis in the country.

The introduction of retail central bank digital currencies (CBDCs) will lead to “many unintended consequences”, said IMF chief Kristalina Georgieva. Florida Governor Ron DeSantis has vowed to ban the digital dollar in his state.

7 Mei 2023

Catatan

Avoid storing larger amounts

One of the most prominent and easy ways to keep your crypto safe is not to keep significant amounts in your wallet. Instead, small amounts are recommended. Chances of losses also increase when you put in more money. It would help if you understand your needs and demands, consider your everyday schedule and use of these currencies, and store currency accordingly.

8 Mei 2023

Catatan

BTC Eyes $29,000 to Retarget $30,000 on Easing Recession Jitters

8 Mei 2023

Catatan

It is a quiet day ahead for BTC. A lack of US economic indicators leaves the SEC v Ripple case and Binance and Coinbase-related news to influence.

8 Mei 2023

Catatan

A bullish start to the day saw BTC strike an early morning high of $29,188. Falling short of the First Major Resistance Level (R1) at $29,702, BTC fell to a final-hour low of $28,458. However, steering clear of the First Major Support Level (S1) at $28,260, BTC wrapped up the day at $28,484.

8 Mei 2023

Catatan

However, regulatory activity and US lawmakers will continue to impact market sentiment. Investors should track SEC v Ripple case updates, with a Court ruling likely to have a material impact. Binance and Coinbase (COIN)-related news would also move the dial. Both are currently under the US Government spotlight.

8 Mei 2023

Catatan

A fall through the pivot would bring the First Major Support Level (S1) at $28,232 into play. However, barring a crypto event-fueled sell-off, BTC should avoid sub-$28,000 and the Second Major Support Level (S2) at $27,980. The Third Major Support Level (S3) sits at $27,250.

8 Mei 2023

Catatan

Top Analyst Predicts 65% Explosion in Bitcoin (BTC) Price

Bitcoin could go parabolic if it mirrors a similar pattern seen months before the last halving event which took place in May 2020. At the time, the price of Bitcoin increased by a huge margin after the halving.

According to the analyst, Bitcoin (BTC) could soar by over 65% from the current level of $28,654 at the time of the analysis. Such a meteoric rise would take the price of the largest cryptocurrency by market cap to the $48,000 zone, Svenson surmised.

8 Mei 2023

Catatan

Bitcoin is now creating a higher low right along our parabolic curve which could create the next major impulse up towards $48,000. That means that Bitcoin in theory has another 65% from here to the next target of $48,000. That is a 65% move, that is a tremendous opportunity if it does in fact play out.”

Speaking on when altcoins could begin to rally, he predicted June or July as the best time to long them or take profits, adding that a decrease in Bitcoin dominance and BTC price reaching $48,000 is a prerequisite for alts to rise significantly in the market.

8 Mei 2023

Catatan

Bitcoin will trade like gold or treasury bonds in the future

Bitcoin’s hashrate has increased by an impressive 25% since the beginning of the year, indicating that network participants’ confidence is now at an all-time high.

The higher the index, the more difficult it is for anyone to control the network or manipulate transactions. And Bitcoin’s hashrate not only doubled during the 2022 bear market, but it is still increasing. This is despite direct attacks on miners by US regulators

8 Mei 2023

Catatan

Bitcoin will trade like gold or a treasury bond

8 Mei 2023

Catatan

Bitcoin will outperform most risk assets as it comes of age. Historically, it is the banking crisis that has determined the value of Bitcoin at different junctures. The last banking crisis (referring to the 2007-08 financial crisis) saw its birth and the current one is defining it. Its value might fall in the short run but it will outgrow that phase and turn into a bullish asset.

8 Mei 2023

Catatan

Bitcoin Network Record High Congestion Caused by Huge Demand for BRC-20 Tokens

8 Mei 2023

Catatan

Bitcoin’s mempool had more than 400k transactions in the pipeline on Sunday as the network congestion reached a new yearly ATH. On-chain analysis indicates the Bitcoin network recorded an extremely high demand for block space fueled by the BRC-20 tokens. Created by Twitter user Domo (@domodata), the BRC-20 economy has grown to a major subsect of the Bitcoin market.

8 Mei 2023

Catatan

Binance Suspends Bitcoin Withdrawals for Second Time in 12 Hours
Binance has once again temporarily stopped allowing BTC withdrawals, citing a significant backlog of outstanding withdrawal requests.

Earlier on May 7, Binance had to briefly halt Bitcoin withdrawals due to an alleged overflow of transactions on the blockchain.

Over half an hour later, withdrawals were once again permitted. However, on May 8, Binance reported again that it had temporarily closed BTC withdrawals due to the large volume of pending transactions.

8 Mei 2023

Catatan

There are 400,000 pending transactions on the bitcoin network and binance halted transactions due to the congestion and high fees

I’ve been warning people of this for months and the righteous bitcoin maxis have kept their mouths shut because they can’t admit bitcoin has any flaws

I always tell the truth.. Bitcoin has an exploit and it needs to be fixed asap

people are uploading useless data to the blockchain which is making it slow and expensive

someone uploaded 10,000 pictures of monkeys to the blockchain which bloated nodes by 1.4 gigabytes!
That’s just one nft collection!

this community is supposed to be strong enough to handle quantum attacks, but watching it be defenceless to jpegs is embarrassing

maybe some centralization is good, because this is an obvious problem that should have been fixed by now

hoping the nodes and miners come together to solve this but I fear greed has already gotten in the way

this demand may be good for price in the short term, but it simply does not scale. People will leave the network because it is inefficient for both money and for NFT’s

I’m researching privacy coins in the meantime since you can’t track each coin to do

8 Mei 2023

Catatan

The mempool serves as an area where transactions are kept at a "waiting" status before being verified by each blockchain node.

These transactions were worth more than $5 billion, and this caused Binance to halt BTC withdrawals for the second time in 12 hours.

8 Mei 2023

Catatan

Liechtenstein's Prime Minister Advocates for Bitcoin as Payment Method for Government Services
In a recent interview, the Prime Minister of Liechtenstein, Daniel Risch, stated that he plans to introduce Bitcoin payments to its citizens, which could be implemented soon.

He went on to outline the European microstate's plans to accept Bitcoin payments for government services.

The national currency of Switzerland, the Swiss franc, will then be promptly exchanged for Bitcoins.

8 Mei 2023

Catatan

MicroStrategy Continuously Increasing BTC Holdings for 11 Quarters
The publicly traded company, MicroStrategy, has benefited from the rise in Bitcoin's value over the past few months, enabling it to report a net profit of $461 million in Q1.

The revenue from the software division was also higher than expected. Tax benefits from the company's BTC holdings contributed to this growth.

MicroStrategy's share price has increased in the first few months of the year.

On January 1, MSTR stocks were valued at around $145; as of now, they are worth approximately $318, representing a 120% increase.

8 Mei 2023

Catatan

Despite the volatile nature of cryptocurrency and the bear market of last year, the business intelligence company has remained loyal to strengthening its BTC positions in recent years.

The quarterly report showed that the company has increased its BTC holdings for the 11th consecutive quarter.

This positive news also helped BTC/USD limit its losses for the day.

8 Mei 2023

Catatan

Rise in Popularity of Memecoin Leads to Multi-Year Highs in Bitcoin Transaction Costs
Bitcoin (BTC) transaction fees have reached a two-year high due to the increased trading activity of memecoins like Pepe.

This week, the total fees paid on the Bitcoin network increased by approximately 400% compared to late April, totaling about $3.5 million.

8 Mei 2023

Catatan

New Report: Despite Crypto Ban, Chinese Citizens Trade on Binance and FTX Exchanges

Beijing has said 'no' to crypto, but that doesn't seem to affect a number of Chinese citizens who have continued trading digital coins since the ban - reportedly, on exchanges including Binance, FTX, OKX, and Huobi.

According to a Bloomberg report, some portion of the country's 1.4 billion people are seeking alternatives to traditional investments, including stocks and property, and they are turning to crypto.

The article cited "varied sources", including FTX’s creditor profile, citizens who stated that they used crypto platforms, and industry insiders describing workarounds to the ban.

FTX's US bankruptcy filings showed that Chinese users accounted for 8% of the exchange’s customers, with advisers counting more than 9 million customer accounts, and claims from creditors amounting to some $11.6 billion.

Jack Ding, a partner with crypto regulations specialist Duan & Duan Law Firm, told Bloomberg that he represents six Chinese creditors with a combined $10 million of FTX claims.

Meanwhile, Chinese investors noted the compliance challenge during interviews: four said that, after the ban was in place, they had traded on Binance, and another said he'd used OKX as well.

Four claimed they lived in mainland China and had passed know-your-customer (KYC) procedures using Chinese identification.

Another Chinese investor, who lives in Silicon Valley, USA, said his $8 million of crypto has been frozen on Binance since July at the request of the police in central Chongqing city who are investigating coins allegedly linked to illegal online casinos.

OKX declined to comment, said the report, while a Binance spokesperson denied that the company operates in mainland China in any way.

"Following the September 2021 ban, the Binance platform, including the website and mobile application, has been blocked behind the Great Firewall,” the Binance spokesperson was quoted as saying.

Ding said that, while crypto trading is outlawed for Chinese both at home and abroad, this is "hard to enforce."

Similarly, Caroline Malcolm, global head of public policy at the major blockchain analysis company Chainalysis, argued that "essentially, bans don’t work."

"The decentralized nature of cryptocurrencies and the fact that they can be transferred peer-to-peer and traded on global exchanges make it difficult for any government to completely eliminate them."

8 Mei 2023

Catatan

Signs of strength in the Bitcoin network as its “use case” is arguably expanded by the growing BRC-20 movement should be a long-term tailwind for the world’s largest cryptocurrency by market capitalization.

But in the short term, the Bitcoin appears more focused on macro and technical factors.

Regarding the latter, with the Fed’s rate tightening cycle now seemingly over and a cutting cycling likely to start later this year, and with the US banking crisis seemingly snowballing, risks seem tilted to the upside for Bitcoin in the near future.

Bitcoin typically performs well in an environment of easing financial conditions and, since March, has derived a safe-haven bid from financial stability concerns, given rising demand for “hard-money” alternatives to traditional currencies (hence why gold has rallied back to close to record highs).

Meanwhile, Bitcoin’s near-term technicals also look solid.

The cryptocurrency is probing for a bullish breakout of a pennant structure that it has been confined within since mid-April.

8 Mei 2023

Catatan

If Bitcoin can break and hold above $30,000 in the next few days, the door should be open for a swift jump back to yearly highs in the $31,000s and beyond.

9 Mei 2023

Catatan

Bicoin Set Up 9th May23

6D BAR CHART SHORT

DAILY LARGE LONG
DAILY MEDIUM LONG
DAILY CAP LONG

4 H LONG
2 H LONG

Trend Longe
My Decision: Stay Long

9 Mei 2023

Catatan

Blockchain Congestion

9 Mei 2023

Catatan

Typically, miners receive a reward equal to approximately 6.25 bitcoin, but the congestion increased the fee to 6.7 bitcoin, surpassing the block reward for the first time in six years.

9 Mei 2023

Catatan

The Mempool is where unconfirmed transactions on the Bitcoin blockchain network are stored before being confirmed by miners.

Miners typically prioritize transactions with higher fees, resulting in larger transaction sizes and lower fee transactions being left in the Mempool for longer periods of time, leading to congestion.

9 Mei 2023

Catatan

On May 9th, Bitcoin's price continued to drop for the fourth day in a row, reaching $27,626, which is a decrease of nearly 2% over the past 24 hours.

From a technical standpoint, Bitcoin is facing a major hurdle of around $27,750.

If it falls below this level, Bitcoin could form a Doji candlestick pattern, which suggests that the bullish bias is weakening and sellers may dominate the market, especially if Bitcoin closes below the support level in the two-hourly timeframe.

9 Mei 2023

Catatan

support level remains around $27,226. If the downward trend continues, Bitcoin's price could potentially drop to $26,500 and $26,000.

9 Mei 2023

Catatan

Fed says banking sector looks set to weather recent turmoil
"The Federal Reserve is prepared to address any liquidity pressures that may arise and is committed to ensuring that the U.S. banking system continues to perform its vital roles," the Fed said.

While the central bank noted there were spillover concerns following the failures of Santa Clara, California-based SVB and New York-based Signature, it maintained that the issues that sank those regional banks do not appear broadly across the banking sector, calling them "outliers" in terms of heavy reliance on uninsured deposits.

Those firms, as well as First Republic Bank, which was closed by regulators earlier this month and sold to JP Morgan Chase, also were grappling with large amounts of unrealized losses spurred by rapidly rising interest rates. Depositors fled SVB within days after it appeared the firm was in trouble, precipitating its abrupt closure.

The Fed noted in its report on Monday that more than 45% of bank assets reprice or mature within a year, suggesting there is not heavy exposure to less valuable securities for long periods of time. But while the amount of uninsured deposits at banks is declining, they still remain above historical averages after an influx of deposits spurred by the COVID-19 pandemic. In aggregate, it said banks remain well-capitalized.

DEBT LIMIT CONCERNS
The Fed released the report shortly after a separate central bank survey found banks were tightening credit standards amid weaker loan demand.

Beyond banks, the Fed said pressures on various market sectors remained within historical norms. However, it noted that valuations on commercial real estate remain high, which suggests there could be a "sizable" correction in property values should telework trends remain strong. The Fed found that banks hold about 60% of commercial real estate loans, with two-thirds of those at smaller lenders with less than $100 billion in assets.

The Fed's report also found that nearly half of its respondents identified the U.S. debt limit as a salient risk, after not appearing as a top concern in the previous report in November. U.S. Treasury Secretary Janet Yellen said the limit could be reached in June, but Democrats and Republicans are still sparring over what conditions, if any, should be attached to an increase.

Banking sector stresses were identified as a risk by more than half of respondents, up from 12% in the November report.

9 Mei 2023

Catatan

Bitcoin Ordinals NFTs Coming to Binance in Late May
Binance NFT, the crypto exchange’s non-fungible token marketplace, previously added support for the BNB chain, Ethereum and Polygon

9 Mei 2023

Catatan

XRP SCAM & BITCOIN IS LEAVING THE USA
DAVINCI

9 Mei 2023

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Bitcoin is a commoditiy

9 Mei 2023

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IRAN wants to use crypto mining to boost the sanctioned nation's revenue stream


Iran is a notable player on the bitcoin mining market, and during 2020 it contributed almost 4% of the global bitcoin hashpower, according to research by the University of Cambridge.

9 Mei 2023

Catatan

#BTC is in a very sstrong area 24762-28807
OBV Bullish is exploding

9 Mei 2023

Catatan

It is impossible to accurately predict the future price of Bitcoin, as it is subject to many variables and unpredictable market forces. While Bitcoin has experienced extreme volatility in the past, it has also shown resilience and has been able to recover from significant price drops.

That being said, the probability of Bitcoin going to zero is considered to be very low by many experts in the industry. This is because Bitcoin has proven to be a valuable asset with many use cases and has garnered significant adoption from individuals and institutions alike.

However, it is important to note that investing in Bitcoin, like any investment, carries risk and potential for loss. It is always important to do your own research and make informed decisions when investing in any asset, including Bitcoin.

9 Mei 2023

Catatan

Bitcoin derives its value from several factors, including its scarcity, security, decentralization, and network effects.

Firstly, Bitcoin is scarce, with a maximum supply of 21 million coins. This limited supply, coupled with increasing demand, has led to a rise in the price of Bitcoin over time.

Secondly, Bitcoin is secure, thanks to its use of cryptography and the decentralized blockchain network that ensures transactions are recorded immutably and without the need for a central authority.

Thirdly, Bitcoin is decentralized, meaning that it is not controlled by any government or institution. This gives users more control over their money and allows for greater financial freedom.

Finally, Bitcoin benefits from network effects, as more users adopt the technology and use it for transactions, the network becomes more valuable and more useful for everyone involved.

Overall, the combination of these factors makes Bitcoin a valuable asset with many potential use cases, including as a store of value, a medium of exchange, and a hedge against inflation

9 Mei 2023

Catatan

Banks have different reasons for investing in cryptocurrencies, and their motivations can vary depending on the bank's specific goals and strategies. Some of the reasons why banks invest in cryptos include:

Diversification: Cryptocurrencies can provide banks with an additional asset class to diversify their investment portfolios, potentially reducing risk and improving returns.

Innovation: Banks recognize the potential of blockchain technology and cryptocurrencies to improve the efficiency and security of financial transactions. By investing in cryptocurrencies, banks can stay at the forefront of financial innovation and potentially leverage these technologies in their own operations.

Hedging: Cryptocurrencies can serve as a hedge against inflation or other economic uncertainties, providing a way for banks to protect their investments and mitigate risk.

Customer demand: Banks are increasingly aware that their customers are interested in cryptocurrencies, and investing in cryptocurrencies can help banks meet this demand and offer new services to their customers.

Regulatory compliance: Some banks are required by law to invest in certain assets or maintain a certain level of capital reserves, and cryptocurrencies can potentially help banks meet these requirements.

Overall, the reasons why banks invest in cryptocurrencies are complex and multifaceted, and can vary depending on the bank's specific goals, regulatory environment, and market conditions.

9 Mei 2023

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Recession in the United States
Will the recession in the US – if it is actually rolling – significantly reduce the demand for oil, which could justify the already falling oil price? Well, on Friday at 2:30 p.m. they showed US labor market data for April: The US unemployment rate drops to 3.4% ( forecast 3.6% ). And: 253,000 new jobs were created in the USA in April ( Forecast + 180,000 ). So the US economy is running more robust than many analysts thought. Does that mean for the oil price? Possibly oil demand will continue to be at a higher level, which the futures market immediately priced in. Since Friday at 2:30 p.m. we have seen an increase in American WTI oil of $ 2.

9 Mei 2023

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Nasdaq: Big Tech stocks are increasing – but indices are not, why?
Big Tech stocks from the Nasdaq Alphabet, Microsoft and Meta rose sharply after submitting their quarterly figures –, but the US indices of Wall Street no longer rise. The exception was the Nasdaq yesterday, but that was only due to Microsoft, which gave the index + 114 points, while the index itself only gained a total of 81 points – without Microsoft, the tech index would also have fallen. But why are the US stock markets not increasing despite the increase in large tech stocks? Because the markets are finally accepting that a recession is coming and the best is already behind us. The Usm rates remain stable – but the margins are significantly weaker: these are clear signs of an economic downturn.According to the actually sobering numbers of Meta ( share, + 11% ), it is Amazon's turn today to number three in S&P 500 by weighting..

9 Mei 2023

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Why Apple is making the US debt more expensive!

Apple is currently making US debt more expensive. But how is that possible: what does Apple have to do with US debt?

Now – Apple wants to issue bonds and raise money with them. That is exactly what the state of the USA does. But Apple is perceived as an extremely safe haven, the company has massive cash reserves and a profitable operating business.

The US state, on the other hand, is constantly making losses, tax revenues have decreased, while US politicians are currently raising the debt limit (Debt limitwrestle ). If this debt ceiling is not raised, there would be a default –, so bondholders would not be served. This in turn could lead to a rating downgrading of the USA and thus further make debt borrowing more expensive.

Apple makes US debt more expensive
The result: because Apple announced today that it will launch bonds, it is a competition for US bonds. Since Apple is a „ thick fish “ as the company with the greatest market capitalization, the market now assumes that other large US tech companies ( such as Microsoft ) will take this step. So if you want to invest your money safely, you now have good competition for American government bonds – because Apple or Microsoft, for example, could go bankrupt in the near future, is not very likely.

With Apple's announcement that it would launch its own bonds, yields on US government bonds rose significantly: the 10-year US bond yield climbs from 3.42% to 3.50% – in a few minutes a very big movement in a very short time!

Apple Inc. sells bonds on the US first-class bond market on Monday as a flood of borrowers tries to before publication important inflation data to raise cash later this week. Bloomberg now reports details.

According to a person familiar with the matter, the $ 5 billion deal is expected to be in up to five different bonds. The longest term bond of 30 years could pay 135 basis points above comparable government bonds, the person said.

„ The transaction will be very well received by the market “ because we have seen a great demand for high quality fixed income securities “, said Rob Waldner, Chief strategist for fixed income securities and head of macro research at Invesco, on Bloomberg TV.

Bloomberg- surveyed traders expect sales of high-quality US corporate bonds worth $ 30 to $ 35 billion this week as corporate bond markets show signs of stabilization. For Apple, it is the first bond sale since the sale of $ 5.5 billion to finance buybacks and dividends in August.

Up to 15 debtors could sell their bonds on Monday to secure financing before the publication of the data on the consumer price index and the producer price index on Wednesday and Thursday.

Apple bond sales proceeds will be used for general corporate purposes. This could include share buybacks, dividend payments, working capital, capital expenditures, acquisitions and debt repayment, the person said.

An Apple representative did not immediately respond to a request for comment.

Apple is the second mega cap issuer to sell bonds after the profits are announced. Facebook parent company Meta Platforms Inc. raised $ 8.5 billion in its second bond sale last week.

FMW / Bloomberg

9 Mei 2023

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XRP Ripple Publishes New Report on The Future of Central Bank Digital Currency – What's Going On?

The XRP price has dropped by 2.5% in the past 24 hours, falling to $0.425150 as the cryptocurrency market as a whole declines by 1%.

This dips means that XRP has fallen by 8.5% in the past week and by 16% in the last 30 days, although the altcoin remains up by 25% since the beginning of the year.

Despite XRP's losses today, Ripple has published a report on central bank digital currencies that underlines the key role the company, and XRP, is likely to play in the economy of the future.

And with the company expecting a positive outcome in its case with the SEC, the coming months could find XRP becoming one of the best-performing alts in the market.
In particular, its 30-day moving average (yellow) has sunk well below its 200-day average (blue), indicating a strong downtrend.

That said, it's likely that the 30-day has hit a bottom, meaning that XRP is due to recover soon.

This view is supported by XRP's relative strength index (purple), which has begun rising again after sinking close to 20 yesterday.

At the same time, the coin's resistance (red) and support (green) levels are now forming a pennant, implying that XRP's price has reached a point where it has to breakout.

Positivity around XRP is accentuated further by Ripple's aforementioned report, which among other things has found that the global value of CBDCs will rise from $100 million today to $213 billion by 2030.

The report also highlighted the stablecoin points Ripple is currently engaged in with the Republic of Palau, the Central Bank of Montenegro and the Royal Monetary Authority of Bhutan.

In other words, the report signals the key role Ripple could play in the world's monetary system, something also indicated by research published earlier this month by Juniper Research, which ranked Ripple as the world's number one CBDC vendor.
This all sets Ripple up very nicely for a scenario where it secures a favorable outcome from its case with the SEC, which is expected to end in the coming months.

All major pieces of evidence have indeed been submitted in the case, so a settlement or summary judgment is likely to arrive in a matter of weeks, while experts such as lawyer Jeremy Hogan have argued that the SEC has failed to prove that Ripple's early sale of XRP satisfied the Howey test.
Assuming that the case does end in a way that enables Ripple to continue its business as before, there's little doubt that XRP would rally very strongly.

In the weeks following the case's conclusion, XRP could be expected to shoot towards $1, before potentially passing its current ATH of $3.40 during the next bull market.

And if Ripple really does end up playing a key role in CBDCs, XRP could rise even higher over the longer term, potentially making it a serious rival of Bitcoin and Ethereum in terms of market cap.
Running on Ethereum, AiDoge enables its users to create fun memes based simply on short text

9 Mei 2023

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Bitcoin-Based Meme Coin Growth Disrupts Binance, Drives Up Fees
A rapid growth in meme coins issued on the Bitcoin blockchain has caused a surge in transaction fees and disrupted withdrawals from Binance.

The growth in Bitcoin transaction fees has in recent days gone parabolic, with the average fee level hitting as high as $19 on Sunday and then $30.9 on Monday this week, after staying between $1 and $2 for much of the year.

Fees on the Bitcoin network have not been this high since the major crypto bull market in the spring of 2021, data from BitInfoCharts shows.
The surge in the fee level caused Binance, the world’s largest crypto exchange by trading volume, to suspend Bitcoin withdrawals on Sunday, saying on Twitter that it needed to adjust fees and work through a transaction backlog before withdrawals could be resumed.

In a separate update on Monday, Binance explained that its “set fees did not anticipate the recent surge in BTC network gas fees.”

“We’re replacing the pending BTC withdrawal transactions with a higher fee so that they get picked up by mining pools,” the exchange said, while also revealing that it is working on enabling withdrawals via Bitcoin’s second-layer Lightning Network.
Bitcoin meme coins and Ordinals
The explosion in Bitcoin fees are widely believed to be caused by a massively popular meme coins that have been issued on the Bitcoin blockchain recently, including new and popular meme coins like Pepe and Ordi.

Dubbed BRC-20 tokens, the tokens have capitalized on a growth in Bitcoin-based non-fungible tokens (NFTs) called Ordinals, which compete with regular Bitcoin transactions for scarce blockspace on the Bitcoin blockchain.

The Bitcoin transaction fee at any given time is essentially the price for blockspace at that time, and high demand for space due to Ordinal NFTs or meme coins taking up space will lead to higher prices.

“Massive run up in network fees”
Commenting on the sharp rise in Bitcoin transaction fees, Hayden Hughes, co-founder of social-trading platform Alpha Impact, told Bloomberg on Monday that Ordinals have caused a “massive run up in network fees and congestion.”

He further explained that this caused Binance and other exchanges, which typically operates with fixed fees for withdrawals, ran into trouble since the fees they charged users fell short of the actual network fee.

“The queue of transactions pending verification for inclusion in the blockchain has experienced significant growth in recent days, causing an increase in transaction fees and confirmation times,” Hughes said, echoing Binance’s statements on Twitter.

10 Mei 2023

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The US CPI Inflation data for April is expected for release on May 10 at 8:30 a.m. EST.
The reading is expected to remain elevated in April amid looming rate hike risks.
Meanwhile, Bitcoin and the broader market have taken a breather as investors await the reading.
A positive release (lower-than-expected) could fuel a BTC rise back above the $30,000 zone.

10 Mei 2023

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USA: Debt ceiling – Loss of credit insurance costs explode
USA: Demand for credit default insurance is increasing
The mess has skyrocketed demand for euro-denominated US credit default swaps that are traded the most. These contracts for a default next year were traded on Wednesday at 166 basis points. They reached a record high and exceeded the levels reached during previous unrest over the US debt ceiling in 2011 and 2013.

Trading has picked up momentum due to the peculiarity of the derivatives market, which enables owners to achieve substantial returns in the event of a default. Your payment corresponds to the difference between the market value and the nominal value of the underlying asset – an attractive investment if long-term government bonds are traded particularly cheaply. According to Bloomberg calculations, the potential payout could exceed 2,400.
Emerging markets would be most affected
According to Simon Waever, an analyst at Morgan Stanley, the outstanding net nominal volume of US CDs with $ 5.5 billion is now comparable to many larger emerging markets. Ironically, emerging markets will be most affected by any impact on the overall market.
The anomaly is limited to one-year CDS. Five-year contracts, which are usually more liquid and better reflect the assessment of a country's longer-term credit risk, have also increased in the United States, but are still traded about 100 basis points below the one-year terms. This reverse curve indicates that the risks in the immediate future are considered to be higher than in the longer term.
The CDS price reflects the cost of insurance for a very large loan in a very small insurance market, said Charles Diebel, head of Fixed Income at Mediolanum International Funds

11 Mei 2023

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Trend Day

IF BTC falls below 26487 it cn o back to the next retracement level 19980

Trend is Bullish

11 Mei 2023

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What is the debt ceiling?
The federal government operates in a deficit, spending more than it brings in with taxes, so it’s forced to borrow money to pay for everything from the salaries of armed forces and federal employees to Social Security

Congress has the power of the purse strings, letting it set a limit on what the government can borrow to pay for expenses (the debt ceiling). The current limit is $31.4 trillion.

What happens if the debt ceiling is not raised or suspended?
When does the U.S. hit spending limit?
How many times has the debt ceiling been raised?

How much has the U.S. debt increased in the past 20 years?

What caused the debt?
Answers here

11 Mei 2023

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Why Say Recession at All Given How Much Inflation Has Come Down Already?

Because when you dial into the Fed statements over the past several months, they believe anything short of recession will not truly stamp out the flames of inflation. If they just slow down the economy to touch their 2% inflation target, they fear that the remaining embers could reignite higher inflation in the months following.

So, under the heading “Don’t Fight the Fed” probably best that we take them at their word that a recession is coming. And when it is finally on the scene, that is when bears will take charge and stocks will retrace to the previous low of 3,491...and probably lower.

12 Mei 2023

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Stronger EUR/USD is bullish for all dollar-denominated precious metals including gold.

13 Mei 2023

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New Buy at 26821

Long Term Bullish signal at 6W chart
In the coming week I m expecting more Bullish volumes

14 Mei 2023

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Bitcoin curently at Distribution lows trend is bullish
nice dragon doji on Friday may 12th putting Bitcoin bounce of
at low pushing the market higher

The first bullish taget will be 27700 and then 28890
Beaking above will put Bitcoin at 30556 and then 31200

14 Mei 2023

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Being balanced above 31200will push Bitcoin to 33995

15 Mei 2023

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new Regulations to limit Bitcoin.Boom. Bitcoin higher

15 Mei 2023

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US Stocks Rise Led by TechUnited States Stock Market
US stocks rose on Monday, with the Dow Jones up more than 50 points, and the S&P 500 and the Nasdaq up 0.4% and 0.6% respectively, as investors remained hopeful about a debt ceiling deal following successful staff-level negotiations over the weekend. President Joe Biden is expected to host top congressional leaders on Tuesday. Tech companies outperformed after European Union regulators approved Microsoft’s proposed $69 billion acquisition of gaming firm Activision Blizzard. Additionally, Atlanta Fed President Raphael Bostic and Chicago Fed economist Austan Goolsbee signaled their preference for pausing interest-rate increases, while Minneapolis Fed President Neel Kashkari suggested the central bank may have more work to do in its inflation fight. Meanwhile, the NY Empire State Manufacturing Index showed an unexpectedly big drop in manufacturing business activity this month.

17 Mei 2023

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US Stocks RiseUnited States Stock Market
US stocks were in the green on Wednesday, with the Dow Jones rising more than 180 points, the S&P 500 up 0.5% and the Nasdaq gaining 0.4% as traders continue to follow the debt ceiling standoff, corporate results and a rebound in regional bank shares. Congressional leaders said Tuesday's talks on the debt limit were productive, but they're still far from a deal and would continue to have meetings later this week. Meanwhile, shares of Western Alliance Bancorp surged more than 10% after the lender reported growth in deposits this quarter. Also, Tesla stocks were up almost 1% after Elon Musk said the company will start to advertise its cars. On the other hand, earnings and revenue from Target topped forecasts but the shares were falling 1.1% after warning of softening sales trend.

17 Mei 2023

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US Housing Starts Unexpectedly Rise
Housing starts in the US unexpectedly increased 2.2% month-over-month to a seasonally adjusted annualized rate of 1.401 million in April of 2023, compared to market forecasts of 1.4 million. Data for March was revised sharply lower to 1.37 million from 1.42 million, as high prices, interest rates, and tighter lending standards continue to weigh. Single-family housing starts, which account for the bulk of homebuilding, increased 1.6% to a four-month high of 846K and starts in buildings with five units or more surged by 5.2% to 542K. Starts rose in the West (34.6% to 315K) and the Midwest (32.6% to 171K) but fell in the Northeast (-23.4% to 131K) and the South (-6.3% to 784K).

18 Mei 2023

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The yield on the US 10-year Treasury note continued to march higher to top 3.6%, a level not seen in nearly two months, as investors follow the debt ceiling standoff and try to assess the Fed's next steps. Congressional lawmakers and President Biden expressed optimism on a deal and said the US will not default. At the same time, bets the Fed will cut rates this year fell and the chances of a pause in rate hikes in June also weakened. Dallas Federal Reserve President Lorie Logan said Thursday current economic data doesn't justify yet pausing the rate hiking-cycle. Retail sales data released this week showed consumer spending remained resilient and initial claims fell more than anticipated.

19 Mei 2023

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US stock futures edged higher on Friday after the major averages gained during Thursday’s regular session, as easing concerns about the US debt ceiling crisis and upbeat corporate earnings results lifted market sentiment. Dow and S&P 500 futures rose about 0.1%, while Nasdaq 100 futures advanced 0.3%. In regular trading on Thursday, the S&P 500 climbed 0.94% and the Nasdaq Composite jumped 1.21%, with both benchmarks hitting their highest levels since August, while the Dow rose 0.34%. Seven out of the 11 S&P sectors finished higher, led to the upside by technology, communication services and consumer discretionary. Investors continued to monitor negotiations on the US debt ceiling, with House Speaker Kevin McCarthy suggesting a potential deal could come as soon as next week. Positive corporate updates from major firms also boosted sentiment, with Nvidia surging nearly 5% after announcing it joined ServiceNow to build AI for enterprises.

21 Mei 2023

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BTC Bulls to Target $27,500 with Debt Ceiling Talks Eyed

The lack of crypto news left investors to consider Fed Chair Powell’s less hawkish comments from Friday. While Powell said that the June policy decision was uncertain, Powell said rates could end lower than previously anticipated, with tighter credit conditions doing the job.

US debt ceiling news also delivered support. On Saturday, reports of US President Joe Biden and Speaker of the House Kevin McCarthy planning to speak as early as Sunday raised hopes of a deal to avoid a US default.
It is a quiet Sunday session, with no US economic indicators for investors to consider. However, investors should monitor updates from Washington on US debt ceiling negotiations.

Progress toward a debt ceiling deal would support BTC and the broader market. US President Joe Biden and Speaker of the House Kevin McCarthy could hold further talks today.
This morning, BTC was up 0.26% to $27,196. A bullish start to the day saw BTC rise from an early low of $27,090 to a high of $27,297. BTC briefly broke through the First Major Resistance Level (R1) at $27,242.

BTC needs to avoid the $27,052 pivot to retarget the First Major Resistance Level (R1) at $27,242 and the morning high of $27,297. A return to $27,250 would signal an extended bullish session. The crypto news wires and US debt ceiling-related news should be crypto-friendly to support an extended rally.

In the event of an extended rally, BTC would likely test the Second Major Resistance Level (R2) at $27,357 and resistance at $27,500. The Third Major Resistance Level (R3) sits at $27,662.

A fall through the pivot would bring the First Major Support Level (S1) at $26,937 into play. However, barring an event-fueled sell-off, BTC should avoid sub-$26,500. The Second Major Support Level (S2) at $26,747 should limit the downside. The Third Major Support Level (S3) sits at $26,442.
Looking at the EMAs and the 4-hourly candlestick chart (below), it was mixed signals. BTC sat below the 100-day EMA ($27,451). The 50-day EMA narrowed to the 100-day EMA, while the 100-day EMA eased back from the 200-day EMA, sending mixed signals.

A move through R1 ($27,242) would support a breakout from R2 ($27,357) to target 100-day EMA ($27,451) and $27,500. However, a fall through the 50-day EMA ($27,137) would bring S1 ($26,937) into view. A fall through the 50-day EMA would be a bearish signal.

21 Mei 2023

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Investor Insights Report - Bulls Remain Hopeful As Market Moves Sideways

nvestor Insights, Venture Capital, DeFi, NFT, Bitcoin, Regulations, GameFi, Crypto Stocks, Blockchain, Mining, Cointelegraph, Research
The Cointelegraph Research Investor Insights Report is a monthly paid report showcasing the latest insights on Bitcoin, DeFi, NFT, GameFi, Venture Capital, Security Tokens, Mining, Crypto Stocks, Regulations, and Derivatives.

After a turbulent month for the crypto industry in March, BTC’s price went sideways in April, despite some volatility. The meteoric rise of meme coins such as PEPE made headlines and with First Republic another mid-sized US bank went under. However, at the basis of current market sentiment is a standoff between markets and policy makers: While the SEC’s chairman Jerome Powell publicly states that interest rates are unlikely to come down this year, the markets for risk-on assets like crypto have firmly priced in a pivot in the coming months.

22 Mei 2023

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Monday happens nothing
tuesday
pmi important also for eurousd if euro gets stronger nasdaq and s+p500 and gold get stronger too
pmi for dollar at 9:45 watch closely and wait how the algos trade. Dont go immediately in,just be patient
also manufacturing data will be published. Important


Until the dat come out, the price moves higher or lower above/below the opening price ,but suddenly comes back to the opening level. No good idea to trade.


Wednesday 2p.m.: FOMC meeting, but this meeting is FOMC minute. High impact, but not so much as the real FOMC meeting,
10 a.m. Yellen will speak,

Thurseday: GDP,pending homesales,unemployment

Friday: Big Day,PCE coming out, also Durable goods
also consumer sentiments and inflation expectations.

Friday will be a very busy day. Watch for those data points.

22 Mei 2023

Catatan

This week:

s+p500
4193 to 4180 should be filled. I am looking bearish this week until sp500 goes to around 4160.
There I will be prepared for a buy, if volume sinks, and we have a bullish signal. The volume has to be increase, while the price gos up again.
If not so, it could mean, that important news, what the public does not know will arrive soon.In this case I willstay out.
If we have buy presure, the target will be 4180, we hold above it, we go then to 4223, and then 4277, cuz there no resistance


Nasdaq US100
Big LVN zone 13563-13606 and a single close at 13689 and 13750

I am expecting that coming down and correction.No! I want to have this correction, before US100 begins a big buy pressure at this level and rise higher.
My bullish target will be then 13952,13999,14218 and 14298


There we have nearly no resistances

In case US100 falls below 13606,
it nears of 13518 but latestly 13350. There are my next Bulls waiting to welcome the bears and support the strong Buy pressure.


Bitcoin.Possibly will come down to 2395 area before the Buying pressure begins.
It has to go above 27700. If we start sideways and the volume reducing, I will take the first Profits, and wait for a second ,but powerfull bullish run.
Then we had the pullback to 38,2 Fib which is a bullflag level,
We pushed then the high ,and higher highs which was wonderful


Gold: we had very strong impulse from 1618 to 1973

Then we had the pullback to 38,2 Fib which is a bullflag level,
We pushed then the high ,and higher highs which was wonderful

The profit taking on the Highs put back Gold in a correction mode,
I am expecting Gold will come down to 1900-1936 (62%Fib.) and then we attack 2150, and then 2212.5

Important is: Gold must Close this week above 1900-1920.

If it doesn´t and falls below this level, then we will see 1840 agin. It will be a ull trend, ,but it will need longer to climb higher.

If we close above 1920 this Friday, then possibly in the next 14 Days Gold will RISE HIGHER...

22 Mei 2023

Catatan

Friday26.May is the Big Day of this week
US Stocks Lack Direction as Investors Eye Debt Ceiling and Inflation report

the yield on the US 10-year Treasury note rebounded from early losses to trade slightly higher at 3.7%, the highest since mid-March, as traders assess the monetary policy outlook and the debt ceiling impasse in the US. On Monday, Fed’s Kashkari said a June rate pause or hike is a close call and St. Louis Fed President Bullard said the Fed may still need to raise rates by another half-point this year. Last Friday, Fed Chair Powell mentioned that because of stress in the banking sector, it might be unnecessary to further raise rates to curb inflation. The likelihood of a pause in the rate hike cycle has been fluctuating, but currently, traders are assigning a 78% probability that the Fed will maintain the rates steady in June. Simultaneously, President Biden is scheduled to meet with House Speaker Kevin McCarthy on Monday to continue negotiations regarding the debt ceiling. This follows an unsuccessful meeting between key negotiators on Friday.

US stocks traded around the flatline on Monday, as investors remain concerned about the sustainability of US government debt. President Biden and House Speaker Kevin McCarthy are set to continue negotiations on the debt ceiling today following a failed meeting on Friday. Treasury Secretary Yellen said on Sunday that the likelihood of the Treasury paying all US bills by June 15th is quite low. Meanwhile, traders continue to follow comments from several Fed officials: Fed’s Kashkari said a June rate pause or hike is a close call and St. Louis Fed President Bullard said the Fed may still need to raise rates by another half-point this year. On the corporate front, shares of Micron Technology fell nearly 4% after China banned some Chinese tech manufacturers from using the company's chips. Stocks of Apple were also down about 1% after Loop Capital downgraded its stock to hold from buy. Meta stocks were also under pressure after the firm has been fined by European regulators.

US futures were around the flatline on Monday, as investors remain concerned about the sustainability of US government debt. President Biden and House Speaker Kevin McCarthy are set to continue negotiations on the debt ceiling today following a failed meeting on Friday. Meanwhile, Treasury Secretary Janet Yellen said on Sunday that the likelihood of the Treasury paying all US bills by June 15th is quite low. On the corporate front, shares of Micron Technology fell more than 4% in premarket trading after China banned some Chinese tech manufacturers from using the company's chips. Stocks of Apple were also down about 1% after Loop Capital downgraded the company’s stock to hold from buy. Meta stocks lost nearly 1% after the firm has been fined a record €1.2 billion by European privacy regulators.

22 Mei 2023

Catatan

Debt Ceiling Deal Or Not, Bitcoin To Remain Bullish; Here’s Why
1 US President Joe Biden and top Republican Kevin McCarthy are set to restart the debt ceiling deal talks while Bitcoin price turned green.

2 US President Joe Biden and top Republican Kevin McCarthy are set to restart the debt ceiling deal talks on Monday as the debt limit negotiating team from the White House arrived at Capitol Hill, according to reports. The talks will begin ahead of a crucial deadline on June 1, 2023, after which the US Federal government will default on some of its debts. The meeting is of utmost prominence as White House had earlier warned that if the debt ceiling deal is not made, it could have a devastating effect on the stock markets.

22 Mei 2023

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Debt Ceiling Talk Bullish For Bitcoin
In this context, the crypto trader community is enraged over Biden’s comments. In fact, some traders spoke about not supporting Biden over his government’s Bitcoin stance in the upcoming US election 2024. However, uncertainty in the macroeconomic space had in the recent times worked in favor of the crypto market, as investors preferred high return, high risk investment options. Hence, uncertainty and instability will remain in the financial market whether or not a debt ceiling deal is arrived at or not before the June 1 deadline.

22 Mei 2023

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Relief in the markets would trigger BTC price jump if the deal is reached at, while fear and uncertainty in stock market would transform Bitcoin into a safe bet if the deal talks fail. Overall, it will likely be a safe ride for crypto market in the coming months. On the other side, the crypto market would digest positive momentum in the economy if the US Fed eventually opts to hold the interest rate hike spree.

22 Mei 2023

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Some school kids asked me about Bitcoin and Cryptos. How would you explaine to a kid wht crypto is ,and debt cieling? Interesting is that they have heard about it....

Imagine Bitcoin and cryptos as a special kind of digital treasure or virtual money.
more and more people are becoming interested in this digital treasure because they think it's valuable.
the Bitcoin price going up over time, like a roller coaster ride going higher and higher.
as more people want to own Bitcoin, its price increases because there is a limited amount available, just like rare toys or collectibles becoming more expensive when everyone wants them.
Understanding Volume and its Importance:

Volume means how much of something is being bought or sold
when there is a lot of buying and selling of Bitcoin (high volume), it shows that many people are interested in it, and this can affect its price.
Mention that high volume means there are lots of people who believe Bitcoin is valuable and want to own it, so its price can go up.
USA Debt Ceiling and Bitcoin's Rise:

Debt ceiling is like a limit or cap on how much money the government can borrow.
when there are concerns about the debt ceiling, it can create uncertainty about the economy and the value of regular money.
some people might think Bitcoin is a better choice because it's not controlled by any government and is seen as a more stable and valuable option.
that cryptocurrencies like Bitcoin and Ethereum are related to these sectors because they can be used in various ways within them.
For example, in technology, people can use Bitcoin to buy computer parts or software.
a person using Bitcoin to buy a computer or video game.
In biotechnology, mention that Ethereum's technology can be used to create secure systems for storing medical records or sharing research data.
Sectors Benefiting from Bitcoin and Ethereum:
sectors where people want to make fast, secure, and global transactions can benefit from Bitcoin and Ethereum.
For online shopping, people can use Bitcoin or Ethereum to buy things quickly and securely without needing a credit card.
For gaming, some games allow players to earn or trade virtual items using cryptocurrencies like Bitcoin or Ethereum.
Picture of a game character buying or selling virtual items with Bitcoin or Ethereum.

23 Mei 2023

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The dollar index steadied around 103.3 on Tuesday, supported by growing expectations that the Federal Reserve will keep interest rates higher for longer, while traders cautiously awaited updates from the debt ceiling negotiations. In the latest central bank commentary, Fed’s Bullard suggested the possibility of raising rates by another half-point this year, while Fed's Kashkari described the decision to pause or hike rates in June as a close call. Markets have scaled back bets on interest rate cuts this year, with rates seen holding at around 4.7% by December. Meanwhile, President Joe Biden and House Speaker Kevin McCarthy signaled cautious optimism that a deal to raise the debt ceiling would be reached, with Treasury Secretary Janet Yellen reaffirming that the US could be at risk of default by June 1.

23 Mei 2023

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Debts higher, Dollar down Bitcoin up

23 Mei 2023

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New Book Reveals Central Banks' Role in Libor and Euribor Rate-Rigging Scandals
According to an extract from a book called “Rigged,” central banks and global policymakers helped coordinate the rate-rigging scandals Libor and Euribor on a large scale.
BTC needs to avoid the $26,849 pivot to target the First Major Resistance Level (R1) at $27,150. A move through the Monday high of $27,130 would signal an extended bullish session. The US economic indicators and US debt ceiling-related news should be crypto-friendly to support an extended rally.

In the event of an extended rally, BTC would likely test the Second Major Resistance Level (R2) at $27,432 and resistance at $27,500. The Third Major Resistance Level (R3) sits at $28,015.

A fall through the pivot would bring the First Major Support Level (S1) at $26,567 into play. However, barring a risk-off-fueled sell-off, BTC should avoid sub-$26,000. The Second Major Support Level (S2) at $26,266 should limit the downside. The Third Major Support Level (S3) sits at $25,683. currently 27300
Looking at the EMAs and the 4-hourly candlestick chart (below), it was bearish signals. BTC sat below the 50-day EMA ($27,033). The 50-day EMA fell back from the 100-day EMA, with the 100-day EMA pulling back from the 200-day EMA, sending bearish signals.

A move through the 50-day EMA ($27,033) and R1 ($27,150) would give the bulls a run at the 100-day EMA ($27,330) and R2 ($27,432). However, failure to move through the 50-day EMA ($27,033) would leave S1 ($26,567) in view. A move through the 50-day EMA would be a bullish signal.

24 Mei 2023

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A mixed start to the day saw BTC fall to a first-hour low of $26,829. Steering clear of the First Major Support Level (S1) at $26,567, BTC rose to a mid-morning high of $27,543. BTC broke through the First Major Resistance Level (R1) at $27,150 and briefly through the Second Major Resistance Level (R2) at $27,432 before easing back to end the day at $27,243.

25 Mei 2023

Catatan

Selling Pressure,Weakenning of UsDollar, thats good for Euro. Strong Euro is GOOD,no VERY GOOD for SP500;NASDAQ;DOW JONES; GOLD;BITCOIN;CRYPTOS: Everything against Dollar.

Look also my NVIDIA Forecast Chart performed: Nailed it! Weak US DOllar also good for Tech Stocks, Bio Pharma and Tech have Highly positive correltions with Bitcoin and Ethereum, and vice versa. NVIDIA : Top Performer

Friday is the Big Day of the Week: aND IT WILL BE VERY BUISY. RGHT AFTER THE bELL PMI and Inflation DATA!

25 Mei 2023

Catatan

De-dollarisation: the yuan’s use grows, but the greenback’s global role is proving to be stubborn

26 Mei 2023

Catatan

Market UpDATES:
NASDQ100 US100 and Indices Sky Rocketing after FED pivot reates cooling
Nasdaq breaking 14055 easily as forecasted in my analysis : Next Target 14350
NVIDAI Sky ROCKETING(Watch als my other Forecasts USD/US100/USDJPY/GOLD/EURO- Related Markets)
Godl Found More Buyers on support.More Bullish Delat coming in nEXT TO 2000USD)
Medium-term price action on the daily chart exhibits scope to extend losses. The longer-term ascending channel is interesting (drawn from $1,641 and $1,959). Note that price action FAILED to touch gloves with the upper boundary in recent trading, pencilling in highs just ahead of the all-time high of $2,075.
Investment Sentiment rising higher from Lows:More Bulls
The Key Fed Inflation Rate Is Cooling At Pivotal Time For The S&P 500
EURO/USD Taking Profits +More Bulls Accumulation and Buying Pressure /Support 1,4075

26 Mei 2023

Catatan

BTC and Crypto upwards after takin profits and correction

26 Mei 2023

Catatan

Bitcoin (BTC) rose slightly higher on Friday, as prices moved away from a recent two-week low.

Following a low of $25,890.59 on Thursday, BTC/USD rose to a peak at $26,591.52 earlier in the day.

The move saw bitcoin (BTC) once again climb above a point of support at the $26,300 level, which has been in place for the past few weeks. For bulls, a positive sign comes in the form of the 14-day relative strength index (RSI), which failed to break out of a floor at 39.00

The last time breakout took place was back on March 10, which led to BTC falling below the $20,000 mark.

26 Mei 2023

Catatan

Nvidia's Blockbuster Outlook Reminds Bitcoin Miners to Give AI a Look(watch also my NVIDA forecasting idea)
Nvidia (NVDA) gave an extremely rosy financial forecast as the chipmaker benefits from surging demand for hardware to power the artificial intelligence (AI) revolution ushered in by the likes of ChatGPT. It was the talk of Wall Street on Thursday as Nvidia's stock price soared.
For bitcoin (BTC) miners, it's a reminder that they already have the expertise and data-center space to join in and run AI applications. Whether they'll dive in remains to be seen.
"The overwhelmingly positive market reaction" to Nvidia's news "will incentivize more mining companies to follow suit making announcements of their own and allocating more of their power capacity to other forms of compute," said Ethan Vera, chief operating officer at mining services firm Luxor TechnologieApplied Digital is one of a handful of miners that have had their eyes on diversifying their data center space into other areas of computing for a while, along with peers Hut 8 Mining (HUT) and Hive Blockchain (HIVE). Miners will see better margins in AI than mining, said Applied Digital CEO and Chairman Wes Cummins – at least before another bull run in the price of bitcoin.s.

26 Mei 2023

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2H Bullish delat supports more buying pressure

28 Mei 2023

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Bitcoin price climbs above $26,800 as traders eye resistance at $27,600

28 Mei 2023

Catatan

2H Bullish

28 Mei 2023

Catatan

#BTC breaks soon 28449.The next target will be 31193.Strong support at 25704 and 24445

29 Mei 2023

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more bullish delta coming in.Bitcoin bullish setup confirmed

29 Mei 2023

Catatan

Bitcoin Profitable Days
Total Days
3,498
Days Profitable
3,051
% Profitable
87.22%
Unprofitable Days
450
% Unprofitable
12.86%

29 Mei 2023

Catatan

Explanation
Number of days in Bitcoin's traded history where holding Bitcoin has been profitable relative to today's price. This chart highlights the aggressive growth of Bitcoin's adoption curve over time, which is reflected in its price. Because supply is limited, as demand grows price moves up. For investors, it also demonstrates the importance of understanding the market cycles of Bitcoin to avoid buying market cycle tops. The drawdowns from cycle tops can last a long time, around 2-3 years in previous cycles.

29 Mei 2023

Catatan

Bitcoin Price Prints Bullish Technical Pattern, Why Close Above $28,500 Is Critical

Bitcoin price is up 4% and trading above $28,000. BTC must clear the $28,500 resistance zone to continue higher in the near term.

Bitcoin is gaining pace above the $27,500 and $27,800 resistance levels.
The price is trading above $28,000 and the 100 hourly Simple moving average.
There is a key bullish trend line forming with support near $27,700 on the hourly chart of the BTC/USD pair (data feed from Kraken).
The pair could correct lower but the bulls might be active near $27,700 and $27,500.
Bitcoin Price Recovers Over 4%
Bitcoin price managed to stay above the $26,000 support zone. BTC formed a base and started a recovery wave above the $27,000 resistance.

29 Mei 2023

Catatan

Bitcoin price is now trading above $28,000 and the 100 hourly Simple moving average. There is also a key bullish trend line forming with support near $27,700 on the hourly chart of the BTC/USD pair.

Immediate resistance on the upside is near the $28,320 level. The next major resistance is near the $28,500 level. A close above the $28,500 resistance zone might send the price toward the $29,200 resistance zone.

29 Mei 2023

Catatan

If Bitcoin’s price fails to clear the $28,500 resistance, it could start a downside correction. Immediate support on the downside is near the $28,000 level.

The next major support is near the $27,700 zone or the 50% Fib retracement level of the upward move from the $27,143 swing low to the $28,450 high, below which the price might test the $27,500 support. Any more losses might take Bitcoin toward the $27,200 level in the near term.

Technical indicators:

Hourly MACD – The MACD is now losing pace in the bullish zone.

Hourly RSI (Relative Strength Index) – The RSI for BTC/USD is in the overbought zone.

Major Support Levels – $28,000, followed by $27,700.

Major Resistance Levels – $28,320, $28,500, and $29,200.

29 Mei 2023

Catatan

First Mover Asia: Bitcoin Rises Past 28K on Debt Ceiling Deal

Crypto and Asian stock markets opened strongly as the White House announced a deal averting a debt ceiling crisis, with Bitcoin and Ether seeing increases of 5% and 4.9%, respectively.

30 Mei 2023

Catatan

Markets steady ahead of final push on the debt deal

After long weekends in many parts of the world, FX markets are returning to some progress on the US debt ceiling. President Joe Biden and House Speaker Kevin McCarthy have reached a two-year deal. That deal will be assessed by the House Rules Committee today and, if approved, will likely go to a vote in the House tomorrow. Both Democrat and Republican leaders feel they have the votes to get the deal through Congress – although at times like these, there may be a few holdout politicians who like their day in the sun.

31 Mei 2023

Catatan

Biden and House Speaker McCarthy reached an agreement on Saturday and the House vote is expected to take place on Wednesday. However, several Republicans have stated that they will not vote in favor of it. Most Ai stocks were still up after Nvidia rose as much as 4% earlier in the session, briefly hitting a $1 trillion market cap. Tesla also held gains after Elon Musk told Chinese foreign minister Qin Gang that he was willing to expand business in the country. On the other hand, energy stocks were among the worst performers dragged down by a 4% decline in oil prices.

1 Jun 2023

Catatan

Blackrock CEO issues dire warning over ‘debt ceiling drama’ — Bullish for Bitcoin?
The United States’ debt ceiling is one step closer to being raised, but Larry Fink says trust in the U.S. dollar is being eroded, which could be good news for Bitcoin

314-117: The House passes the Biden-McCarthy debt ceiling agreement, raising the debt limit until 2025 and instituting discretionary spending caps for two years.

71 Republicans and 46 Democrats voted “no” on the bill

1 Jun 2023

Catatan

BTCUSD long
2H MACD bearish divergence
rsi bullish diverence

support 24480

1 Jun 2023

Catatan

The Dow Jones cut early losses to trade around 50 points higher while the S&P 500 and the Nasdaq extended gains to add about 0.5% each, as traders focus on the monetary policy outlook. Fresh data for unit labour costs, the ISM PMI and comments from some Fed officials reinforced bets the Fed will pause the tightening cycle this month. As a result, Treasury yields fell and tech shares got a boost. On the other hand, stocks of Salesforce fell nearly 5% after the company reported higher capital expenses than expected. Meanwhile, traders welcomed the passage of the Fiscal Responsibility Act of 2023 by a vote of 314-117 on the House of Representatives. The bill is now headed to the Senate and is expected to be approved before the June 5th default deadline.
The dollar index fell below 103.9 on Thursday, the lowest in nearly a week, as fresh data and comments from some Fed officials raised bets the central bank will pause the tightening cycle when it meets in about two weeks. Unit labour costs rose less than expected in Q1 and the slump in productivity was revised lower, while the ISM PMI showed the manufacturing sector contracted for a 7th month. On the other hand, initial jobless claims and the ADP report beat forecasts. Also, Fed Governor Philip Jefferson and Philadelphia Fed President Patrick Harker suggested the central bank would skip a rate hike in the next meeting. Meanwhile, the House of Representatives approved the Fiscal Responsibility Act of 2023 by a vote of 314-117 on Wednesday evening. The bill is now headed to the Senate and is expected to be approved before the June 5th default deadline.

2 Jun 2023

Catatan

a break above 29960 will drive Bitcoin to 34460

2 Jun 2023

Catatan

The buyers must defend the 25758 zone with everything what they have. Otherwise Bitcoin drops to 19000-19600 areas again.

3 Jun 2023

Catatan

Bitcoin has been trading inside a descending channel pattern for the past few days. The price closed below the 20-day exponential moving average (EMA) of $27,239 on May 31, but the bears are struggling to maintain the lower levels.

The bulls will try to push the price back above the 20-day EMA. If they do that, the BTC/USDT pair could reach the resistance line where the bears are expected to mount a strong defense.

If the price turns down from the resistance line, it will signal that the pair may extend its stay inside the channel for some more time. The crucial support to watch on the downside is $25,250 because a break below it will indicate that bears are in control.

The first sign of strength on the upside will be a break and close above the channel. The pair could then start its journey toward $31,000.

3 Jun 2023

Catatan

BTC targets $30,000 as short-term bias turns bullish

3 Jun 2023

Catatan

Bitcoin price trades above the $27,086 support level after bears failed to trigger a breakdown for the last three weeks.
BTC bulls have an opportunity to kick-start a short-term upswing by flipping the $28,051 hurdle into a support floor.
A daily candlestick close below $27,086 that decisively flips it into a resistance level will invalidate the bullish thesis.

4 Jun 2023

Catatan

Bitcoin Above 27K Following Better-Than-Expected May Jobs Report

6 Jun 2023

Catatan

The Fed meets next week and expectations of another rate increase are rising, particularly given the growing hopes the U.S. economy is headed for a 'soft landing' after Congress's approval last week of a debt ceiling deal that averts U.S. default.

The Fed enters its traditional blackout period this week, but there is more data to digest, including the ISM services PMI later Monday, which is expected to point to a still solid rate of expansion.

6 Jun 2023

Catatan

Bitcoin price liquidations cross $100 million after the SEC’s recent lawsuit against Binance.
Ethereum price could retest the $2,000 psychological level if sidelined buyers join the fray.
Ripple price to get boring for a few days before XRP reveals its directional bias.

7 Jun 2023

Catatan

Court filings made by
@SECGov
reveal further details about their years-long investigation into
@BinanceUS
- including the secretive profits made by the company.
@jackschickler
reports.

7 Jun 2023

Catatan

After this morning's
@SECGov
lawsuit,
Coinbase
stock felt the burn, falling by up to 20%.

8 Jun 2023

Catatan

Nasdaq Bitcoin and Co. Bullish

8 Jun 2023

Catatan

US100
long bullish
5min divergence long
5min. short DXY rips nasdaq bitcoin gold euro and co bullish

Unemployment 261K

8 Jun 2023

Catatan

DXY Falls after Weekly Claims

The dollar index dropped to as low as 103.58 on Thursday after higher-than-anticipated weekly claims reduced expectations of an imminent interest rate hike by the Federal Reserve. Market participants anticipate that the Federal Reserve will temporarily halt its cycle of interest rate increases before resuming them in July, but unexpected rate hikes by the Reserve Bank of Australia and the Bank of Canada have increased the likelihood of a Federal Reserve rate hike already next week. Nevertheless, the Federal Reserve's decision could be influenced by the release of May's consumer inflation data, scheduled for a day before the central bank's meeting, which is projected to indicate a 0.3% increase in prices.

Initial Jobless Claims Jump to 2021-Highs
The number of Americans filing for unemployment benefits jumped to 261K in the week ended June 3rd 2023, the highest figure since October 2021, and above market forecasts of 235K. Figures for the previous week were revised slightly higher to 233K from an initial 232K. It marks a third consecutive week of increases in the number of initial jobless claims, in a sign the labour market strenght may be fading. The 4-week moving average which removes week-to-week volatility was 237.25K, an increase of 7.5K from the previous week. Based on unadjusted data, the largest increases in initial claims were in Ohio (6.345K), California (5.173K), and Minnesota (2.746K), while the largest decreases were in Connecticut (-2.35K) and NY (-1.243K). Meanwhile, continuing claims fell to 1757K from 1794K, below forecasts of 1800K.

8 Jun 2023

Catatan

US Wholesale Inventories Fall for 2nd Month

Wholesale inventories in the US decreased 0.1% month-over-month in April 2023, less than earlier estimates of a 0.2% fall and following a downwardly revised 0.2% drop in March. Inventories fell for nondurables (-1.2% vs -0.5% in March), mostly drugs (-0.8%), apparel (-2.3%), and farm products (-7.1%). On the other hand stocks for durable goods rose 0.6% (vs a flat reading in March). Compared to a year earlier, wholesale inventories jumped 6.3%.

10 Jun 2023

Catatan

BTC Bitcoin long but Bear Trap Below 25117

11 Jun 2023

Catatan

ADA, MATIC, SOL face the music as Robinhood delists tokens
Hours after Robinhood delisted ADA, MATIC, and SOL, the price action of the tokens was not what participants would have hoped for.

Ethereum continues to dominate the crypto sector, with increased TVL and notable growth on DEXs. NFT sector however, does not witness the same level of progress.

Should Shiba Inu traders be worried as Shibarium launch date remains uncertain

Solana prices dive 42% within a week, will there be a quick recovery
Solana nears an important resistance
Bitcoin’s Implied Volatility declined rapidly indicating the anticipation of low fluctuations of price from the options market.

12 Jun 2023

Catatan

Asian Stock Market: Bulls and bears jostle at monthly top ahead of central bank decisions
Asia-Pacific shares grind near one-month highs amid cautious mood.
Softer Japan inflation, hopes of no PBOC rate hike underpin mildly positive risk appetite.
Holidays in Australia, light calendar elsewhere join pre-Fed anxiety to limit market moves.

Gold price is looking to extend Friday’s pullback from five-day highs of $1,973 on Monday. Despite the retreat, Gold price maintains its last week’s range, as investors turn cautious ahead of a big week, with eyes on the United States (US) Consumer Price Index (CPI) and US Federal Reserve policy announcements

USD/JPY strengthens beyond mid-139.00s on modest USD uptick, lacks bullish conviction

USD/CHF Price Analysis: Bounces off 200-SMA but recovery remains elusive below 0.9100

GBPUSD SHORT on hawkish FED
SHORT

DAX40 Will Rise much more Higher
LONG

12 Jun 2023

Catatan

US Fed, BOJ, ECB Are Set to Announce Policies This Week

12 Jun 2023

Catatan

US Stocks Rise Ahead Inflation, Fed
The Dow Jones rose 20 points on Monday, the S&P 500 was up 0.3% and the Nasdaq 0.4% as investors are hopeful that inflationary pressures would show further signs of easing, supporting the case for a pause in the Fed’s interest rate hikes this week. The US inflation rate is forecasted to fall 4.1% in May, the lowest since March 2021, from 4.9% in April while the core gauge may decelerate to 5.2% from 5.5%. Most market participants expect the US central bank to leave interest rates unchanged at the current levels but there is a 30% chance of a rate hike depending on the CPI reading and after surprise moves in Australia and Canada last week. Among single stocks, Nasdaq tumbled 10% after the exchange operator said it agreed to acquire Adenza. Oracle was up nearly 4% ahead of earnings results after the market close
Crude Short oil make another bearish attempt
SHORT

BITCOIN WILL RISE HIGHER
LONG

Bank of Japan's Dovish Line Pushes Yen Down
LONG

GOLD STRONG BUY , short term correction coming soon
LONG

USD/CAD continues to move higher amid a broad sell-off in commod
LONG

USDCHF BEARISH Meets monthly Low and Support
SHORT

US100 Long U.S. Debt Deal Optimism Boosts Sentiment
LONG

12 Jun 2023

Catatan

CURRENCYCOM:US100 long
nasdaq100 us100 we go to 15200 where the profit taking and reveras begins US100 Long Rises Higher to 15200zone,the possible correction

13 Jun 2023

Catatan

US Dollar Index: DXY fades recovery below 104.00 on downbeat Fed bets, US inflation eyed
US Dollar Index struggles to extend the previous day’s corrective bounce off three-week low, snaps two-day winning streak.
Markets remain nearly sure of witnessing no rate hike from Fed in June but concerns about July stay dicey.
Bond market moves, challenges to sentiment prod DXY bears ahead of the key US CPI.
Core CPI will be closely observed as high inflation can allow FOMC to remain hawkish despite no rate hike decision.
US Dollar Index (DXY) remains pressured around 103.60 as it fades the previous two-day winning streak on Tuesday as the key US inflation data looms. That said, the greenback’s gauge versus the six major currencies rose in the last two consecutive days amid the market’s positioning for the Federal Reserve’s (Fed) pause to the rate hike trajectory. However, the recently mixed concerns about the US central bank’s future moves join the challenges to the sentiment to prod the DXY buyers ahead of an important data point for the markets.

It’s worth noting that a study from the San Francisco Fed about the correlation between wage growth and inflation could be cited as the reason for the US central bank to remain less hawkish, which in turn weighs on the DXY, apart from the pre-data anxiety. The survey concluded that wage growth has a very small impact on inflation, which in turn raises doubts about the central bankers’ emphasis on wage cost numbers as a source of information to gauge inflation pressure.
Talking about the latest challenges to sentiment, a trade dispute is developing after the US expands its ban on imports from Xinjiang. China vows to protect China firms against any US sanctions, per Reuters. Recently, Bloomberg released prepared remarks of US Treasury Secretary Janet Yellen’s scheduled Testimony in front of the House Financial Services Committee as she said that the International Monetary Fund (IMF) and the World Bank (WB) serve as important counterweights to nontransparent, unsustainable lending from others, like China.
Additionally, the increase in the bets favoring the Federal Reserve’s (Fed) 0.25% rate hike in July also prod optimism and put a floor under the US Dollar Index. It should be noted that the CME’s FedWatch Tool suggests nearly limited scope for the US central bank to act on Wednesday’s Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC).
Looking ahead, the US Consumer Price Index (CPI) figures for May will be in the spotlight as the Fed decision looms on Wednesday. That said, the market forecasts of witnessing no change in the Core CPI MoM figure of 0.4% gain major attention as softer figures could push back the July rate hike concerns and may not allow the Fed to sound hawkish, which in turn can drown the US Dollar.

14 Jun 2023

Catatan

US Dollar Index: DXY licks US inflation-inflicted wounds at three-week low above 103.00 on Fed day

US Dollar Index grinds near the lowest levels in three weeks after snapping two-day winning streak.
US inflation data bolsters market’s bets on Fed’s status quo and weigh on the DXY despite upbeat yields.
Cautious mood ahead of the FOMC announcements put a floor under the US Dollar price.
Expectations of witnessing a hawkish halt from US central bank highlight qualitative updates from the Fed.
US Dollar Index (DXY) steadies above 103.00, after bouncing off a three-week low, as markets brace for the Federal Reserve (Fed) announcements on Wednesday. The greenback’s gauge versus six major currencies slumped the most in a week, to the lowest levels since May 22, after the US inflation data fuelled speculations of the US central bank’s halt to the rate hike trajectory present in the last 10 monetary policy meetings.

As per the latest US inflation data for May, the headline Consumer Price Index (CPI) drops more-than-expected and prior releases to 0.1% MoM and 4.0% YoY. However, the Core CPI, known as the CPI ex Food & Energy, matches 0.4% monthly and 5.3% yearly forecasts. It’s worth noting that the US headline CPI dropped to the lowest since March 2021 and hence justifies the market’s expectations of the US Federal Reserve (Fed) hawkish halt, which in turn should have weighed on the US Dollar.
Following the data, the CME’s FedWatch Tool suggests more than a 90% chance of the US Federal Reserve’s (Fed) no rate hike during today’s monetary policy meeting, versus around 75% chance before that.

It’s worth noting, however, that the ex-Fed Officials have been pushing for a hawkish halt to the rate hikes and prods the DXY bears. On Tuesday, Former Dallas Federal Reserve Bank (Fed) President Robert Kaplan said that he would support a "hawkish pause" at this week's meeting while also adding that he would “leave the question of a July hike open.” Previously, Ex-Boston Fed President Eric Rosengren tweeted, “Expect a hawkish skip this week.”

As a result, Wall Street benchmarks rose for the second consecutive day but the US Treasury bond yields remain firmer. That said, the US 10-year Treasury bond yields rose to a 13-day high of 3.83% whereas the two-year counterpart poked the highest levels in three months with 4.70% mark before easing to 4.67% in the last hours.

Looking ahead, the pre-Fed sentiment may prod the DXY, as well as allow the greenback’s gauge to pare recent losses. However, the traders will pay attention to the US central bank’s economic forecasts, dot-plot and Chairman Jerome Powell’s press conference for clear directions afterward, as the rate hike pause is almost given.

16 Jun 2023

Catatan

European equity markets were set for a positive open on Friday, tracking global peers higher amid bets that US interest rates could be nearing their peak as the American economy loses momentum and after the Federal Reserve paused its tightening campaign in June. Meanwhile, the European Central Bank opted to raise interest rates by another 25 basis points, with ECB President Christine Lagarde saying ‘we are not thinking about pausing.” Investors now look ahead to final euro zone inflation figures and wage growth data for further clues on the economy and future monetary policy. DAX futures jumped 0.9%, Stoxx 600 futures gained 0.5% and FTSE 100 futures edged up 0.2% in premarket trade.

18 Jun 2023

Catatan

The Dow finished more than 100 points below the flatline on Friday, the S&P 500 and the Nasdaq lost nearly 0.4% and 0.7%, respectively, as investors continued to assess the outlook of monetary policy for the Fed amid a massive options expiration at the second 2023’s quadruple witching date. Among stocks, Microsoft fell 1.7% and Micron Technology dropped 1.7%. Conversely, Virgin Galactic surged 16.3% on plans for commercial space tourism. Tesla added 1.8% after hitting a 37-week high during the session and Adobe gained 0.8% with positive earnings and guidance. On the week, the Dow Jones added 0.9%, marking a three-week winning streak despite the Fed's warning of future rate hikes. The S&P 500 gained 2.2%, its fifth consecutive weekly gain, the longest since November 2021, rising 2.2%. The Nasdaq was up 2.7% for an eighth straight positive week. Markets will be closed on Monday for the Juneteenth holiday.

18 Jun 2023

Catatan

BTC Bears Target Sub-$26,000 on SEC v Binance and Ripple Battles

BTC was flat this morning, with regulatory uncertainty stemming from the SEC lawsuits against Ripple, Binance, and Coinbase testing buyer appetite.


The market structure and momentum of Bitcoin was bearish, but its bounce back above 26k gave bears some food for thought.


Bitcoin’s correlation with the S&P 500 turned negative over May. This meant that the index has an overall bullish outlook, but Bitcoin has trended in the opposite direction in recent weeks. The increasing hostility from regulatory bodies in the United States has played a part in BTC’s misfortunes on the price chart.



There was an argument to be made that Bitcoin showed some signs of recovery. Yet, an analysis of the price action showed that the bias remained in favor of the sellers. On the other hand, if Bitcoin climbs to 28k, it could signal an uptrend.


Can the bulls drive Bitcoin past 27.4k next?


The market structure of Bitcoin on the daily timeframe was bearish. The structure shifted on 21 April when BTC dipped below a recent higher low. Since then, the price has trended lower on the chart.

Moreover, the trading volume has been extremely low from April onward, compared to the volume seen in February and March. This was reflected on the OBV as well, which only went slightly lower in May in contrast to the rapid gains it posted in mid-March.

The Fibonacci levels based on the recent leg down show that Bitcoin was likely headed toward 24.8k. The 61.8% extension level at 23.3k was also a target it presented. The price action showed that the 24.2k-24.4k region could serve as strong support. Beneath that, the 22.4k and 21.5k levels were important.

To signal a bullish shift in the structure, Bitcoin prices must rise back above the recent lower high at 27.4k. Yet, an uptrend would not be established there, as BTC would need to form a higher low and continue higher. Cautious investors can wait for this turn of events before looking to buy.


On Saturday, BTC extended the winning streak to three sessions, gaining 0.67% to end the day at $26,535.
SEC v Binance news delivered a breakout morning session before profit-taking left BTC with modest gains.
The technical indicators turned bullish, signaling a return to $27,000.
On Saturday, bitcoin (BTC) gained 0.67%. Following a 2.92% rally on Friday, BTC ended the day at $26,535. Significantly, BTC enjoyed its first three-day winning streak since May.

A mixed start to the day saw BTC fall to an early afternoon low of $26,202. Steering clear of the First Major Support Level (S1) at $25,523, BTC rose to a late morning high of $26,857. However, falling short of the First Major Resistance Level (R1) at $26,882, BTC eased back to sub-$26,500 and a range-bound afternoon session.

SEC v Binance News Delivered Brief Relief
On Saturday, news of Binance striking a deal to address the SEC’s motion to freeze Binance US assets supported a breakout morning.

Binance, Binance US, and the SEC agreed on a deal restricting access to customer funds to Binance US employees. The agreement prevents Binance Holdings staff from having access to private keys for US wallets.

The SEC filed a motion to freeze the assets of Binance US shortly after filing charges against Binance, Binance US, and Binance CEO CZ.

On Saturday, the US Court signed off on the deal, which allows Binance to repatriate all US customer funds and private keys onshore to nullify the motion to freeze.

While the news was positive, Binance US and Binance face charges that could drag on and further impact the US digital asset space.

Uncertainty toward the SEC v Ripple case remains another headwind, with optimism of a Ripple win fading after the release of the Hinman speech-related docs.

The Day Ahead
It is a quiet Sunday session, with no US economic indicators to provide direction. The lack of external market forces will leave BTC in the hands of the crypto market news wires.

SEC activity remains the focal point, with SEC v Ripple, Binance, and Coinbase (COIN)-related news likely to move the dial.

We also expect market sensitivity to lawmaker chatter. US lawmakers have remained silent on the William Hinman speech-related documents and the SEC charges against Binance and Coinbase.

Bitcoin (BTC) Price Action
This morning, BTC was down 0.05% to $26,523. A mixed start to the day saw BTC rise to an early high of $26,551 before falling to a low of $26,410.


BTC Technical Indicators
Looking at the EMAs and the 4-hourly candlestick chart (below), the EMAs sent bullish signals. BTC sat above the 100-day EMA ($26,269). The 50-day EMA closed in on the 100-day EMA, with the 100-day EMA narrowing to the 200-day EMA, sending bullish signals.

A move through the 200-day EMA ($26,654) would support a breakout from R1 ($26,861) to target R2 ($27,186). However, a fall through the 100-day EMA ($26,269) and S1 ($26,206) would bring the 50-day EMA ($26,059) into view. A fall through the 50-day EMA would send a bearish signal.

Resistance & Support Levels

R1 – $ 26,861 S1 – $ 26,206
R2 – $ 27,186 S2 – $ 25,876
R3 – $ 27,841 S3 – $ 25,221
BTC needs to move through the $26,531 pivot to target the First Major Resistance Level (R1) at $26,861 and $27,500. A move through the Saturday high of $26,857 would signal an extended bullish session. The crypto news wires should be crypto-friendly to support an extended rally.

In the event of an extended rally, BTC would likely test the Second Major Resistance Level (R2) at $27,186 and resistance at $27,500. The Third Major Resistance Level (R3) sits at $27,841.

Failure to move through the pivot would leave the First Major Support Level (S1) at $26,206 in play. However, barring a risk-off-fueled sell-off, BTC should avoid sub-$26,000 and the Second Major Support Level (S2) at $25,876. The Third Major Support Level (S3) sits at $25,221.

19 Jun 2023

Catatan

Gold long going to above 2050
LONG


Gold Price Analysis: Testing Support Levels Amidst Consolidation and Breakout Attempts

Technical analysis reveals a retracement in gold, testing key support zones and indicating a healthy consolidation phase before an expected continuation of the uptrend.



Gold, FX Empire
Gold Forecast Video for 19.06.23 by Bruce Powers
Gold rises to a three-day high of 1,986 on Friday before pulling back. It attempted to breakout above the top boundary trendline of a small symmetrical triangle consolidation pattern but is now on track to close below it and within the consolidation range.

Attempting to Break Up yet Remains in Consolidation Range
So far, Thursday’s test of the 100-Day EMA with a day’s low of 1,925 has held up but further signs of strength are needed. Gold briefly dropped below the 100-Day line earlier in the session on Thursday but managed to close strong, back above it and near the high of the day. The 100-Day EMA is now at 1,940.

Further Signs of Strength are Needed
Further signs of strength are needed to indicate whether yesterday’s low completes the retracement or further tests will occur. This week’s candlestick pattern is set to close as a bullish doji hammer. Next week an upside breakout signal will occur on a move above the high at 1,971, and the breakout is confirmed on a daily close above that high. Following a move above that high the next weekly resistance levels are 1,973, 1,983, and 1,985. A subsequent daily close above each price level will confirm strength, otherwise some resistance might be seen again around those levels.

If Lows Tested Again
If lower prices occur before a continuation higher the two potential support zones are around the 61.8% Fibonacci retracement at 1,912, followed by the 200-Day EMA at 1,894. The 200-Day EMA was tested as support with a double bottom in the first quarter of this year price reversed higher from there.

Uptrend Intact
The current retracement in gold is a test of support around previous high swing high of 1,960 from early-February. So far, the retracement is normal and healthy for the uptrend. Consolidation has been occurring at the 50% retracement area as well as the 100-Day EMA. Notice that there is a greater distance between the 100-Day EMA and 200-Day than what was seen in February. It reflects an improving trend. Once this retracement is complete, all signs are that gold should continue higher.


Gold held above $1,950 an ounce on Friday after gaining 0.7% in the previous session, benefiting mainly from the dollar’s weakness as the Federal Reserve paused its tightening campaign at a time other major central banks are still raising interest rates. Still, the metal remains close to three-month lows as the Fed hinted at two more quarter-point rate increases this year, while the European Central Bank delivered another 25 basis point rate hike on Thursday and signaled further tightening. The Bank of England is also set to raise rates again at its June policy meeting, a month marked by surprise rate increases from the Reserve Bank of Australia and the Bank of Canada. Meanwhile, the People’s Bank of China lowered key short-term interest rates this week for the first time in ten months, while the Bank of Japan maintained its ultra-easy monetary policy on Friday.



Daily bullish
4H Bullish
34min Bullish

Gold is mostly traded on the OTC London market, the US futures market (COMEX) and the Shanghai Gold Exchange (SGE). The standard future contract is 100 troy ounces. Gold is an attractive investment during periods of political and economic uncertainty. Half of the gold consumption in the world is in jewelry, 40% in investments, and 10% in industry. The biggest producers of gold are China, Australia, United States, South Africa, Russia, Peru and Indonesia. The biggest consumers of gold jewelry are India, China, United States, Turkey, Saudi Arabia, Russia and UAE. The gold prices displayed in Trading Economics are based on over-the-counter (OTC) and contract for difference (CFD) financial instruments. Our gold prices are intended to provide you with a reference only, rather than as a basis for making trading decisions. Trading Economics does not verify any data and disclaims any obligation to do so.

21 Jun 2023

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Bitcoin will rise higher lol

27 Jun 2023

Catatan

Gold is Being Pulled Between a Hawkish Fed and New Geopolitical Concerns
US Housing Surprises, Fed Pauses but Remains Hawkish
Last week, US economic data revealed a much stronger than expected housing market, with the NAHB Housing Market Index surpassing expectations to hit its highest level since July of last year. New building permits also beat market expectations, and new housing starts surged to their highest level since May 2022.

Last month, we reviewed the three possibilities of a Federal Reserve pivoting to rate cuts, continuing to hike, or pausing. The June FOMC meeting delivered our most likely scenario of a pause, which we presented as one of the better cases for gold, at least in the short term.

However, what markets received from the June FOMC meeting was a hawkish pause, in which no action was taken, while Chair Powell renewed his hawkish rhetoric, underlining his commitment to the task of bringing down inflation.

In a busy week for FOMC speakers, markets had the opportunity to digest comments from a total of six FOMC members. Jerome Powell also made his semi-annual trip to Capitol Hill, testifying before the House Financial Services Committee, and Senate Banking Committee, where he all-but confirmed that more rate hikes are in store and stated that “we don’t see rate cuts any time soon.”

Gold’s Reaction
The result of this pull between the resilience of the US economy plus a hawkish Fed on the one hand, and growing geopolitical uncertainty on the other, has resulted in muted price action despite the overall bearish trend.

We’re seeing this among investors at HYCM as well, for whom gold is one of the most popular assets this year. Positioning suggests current price action could be a period of short-term profit-taking within a longer-term bullish view.

We can see this reflected in gold’s chart. Between June 20 and 22, which saw the release of US housing data and FOMC speeches, gold prices declined by almost 2.4%.

28 Jun 2023

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Fed Chair. Powell reiterated at the ECB Forum on Central Banking that interest rates will rise further and that he wouldn’t take moving in consecutive meetings off the table at all, but noted that a recession in the US is not the most likely case. Nvidia was down by over 2% and Advanced Micro Devices by 1% after the Wall Street Journal reported that the US government is considering new restrictions on exports of artificial intelligence chips to China. The Fed is also due to release the results of its annual stress tests to banks, and more details on Basel III Endgame and changes to bank supervision will be in the spotlight.
The Dow Jones was down over 100 points and the S&P 500 dipped by 0.1% on Wednesday afternoon, on the prospect of further interest rate hikes following the Federal Reserve's chair Powell Speech at the ECB Forum. He said he does not see inflation reaching the Fed's 2% target any time soon. He reiterated that interest rates will rise further and did not rule out a boost in the cost of borrowing at the next policy meeting scheduled for the end of July. Meantime, the Nasdaq was up 0.2% powered by megacap momentum stocks. Among stocks, shares of Nvidia and Advanced Micro Devices were down by 2% and 1%, respectively, after the US government is considering new restrictions on exports of AI chips to China. Intel, Applied Materials and Qualcomm fell more than 2% each. On the other hand, Apple hit an all-time high of $189.8 during the session, while shares of Tesla and Alphabet advanced 1.4% and 2.5%. The Fed is due to release the results of its annual stress tests to banks.

29 Jun 2023

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The US economy grew by an annualized 2% on quarter in Q1 2023, well above 1.3% in the second estimate, and forecasts of 1.4%. The updated estimates primarily reflected upward revisions to exports and consumer spending that were partly offset by downward revisions to nonresidential fixed investment and federal government spending. Imports were revised down.

4 Jul 2023

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Wall Street Edges Higher on Shortened Monday Session

US stocks closed with marginal gains on a shortened Monday session, setting the stage for caution in the second half of the year as markets continued to assess the economy’s resilience to further monetary tightening from the Federal Reserve. The Dow added 10 points, while the S&P 500 and the Nasdaq edged 0.1% and 0.2% higher, respectively. Shares from rate-sensitive sectors edged lower after ISM PMI data showed that US manufacturing contracted more than expected for an eighth consecutive month in June, reigniting concerns that restrictive borrowing costs will hamper economic activity to a large extent. Apple closed 1% down to set the pace for tech giants, pressured by news that the company cut production forecasts for the mixed-reality Vision Pro headset. On the other hand, Tesla rallied 6% as the company beat deliveries and production estimates for Q2. Stock exchanges in the US will be closed on Tuesday for the Independence Day holiday.

4 Jul 2023

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Wall Street Edges Higher on Shortened Monday Session

4 Jul 2023

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This marks the first time that Bitcoin has managed to crack and hold above $31,000 since 2022.

t BTC is still solidly in a bullish mode and one of the most useful short-term moving averages the 20-day exponential moving average also is telling us the rally BTC is still intact.

6 Jul 2023

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TREND STRONG BULLISH
US Mortgage Rates Rise to 8-Month High
The average rate on a 30-year fixed mortgage increased by 10 basis points from the previous week to 6.81% in the week ending July 6th, the highest November 2022 as higher interest from the Federal Reserve underpinned expensive mortgage rates for American consumers. A year ago, the 30-year fixed mortgage rate was at 5.3%. “Mortgage rates continued their upward trajectory again this week, rising to the highest rate this year so far,” said Sam Khater, Freddie Mac’s Chief Economist. “This upward trend is being driven by a resilient economy, persistent inflation and a more hawkish tone from the Federal Reserve. These high rates combined with low i

10 Jul 2023

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The Dow Jones closed more than 209 points higher on Monday, while the S&P 500 and the Nasdaq added 0.2% each, as investors awaited the US consumer and producer inflation reports later this week and braced for the start of the second quarter earnings season. The upcoming inflation report is expected to offer additional evidence regarding inflationary pressures and provide insights into the Federal Reserve's future actions. Traders are currently pricing in a nearly 92% chance for a 25bps increase in the fed funds rate this month, but the odds for another quarter point hike later in the year have been swinging, currently standing at 22% for September and 33% for November. Healthcare shares were among top performers of the session including Amgen (+2.5%). Also, Inter (+2.8%), Honeywell (+2.2%) and Home Depot (2.5%) outperformed while mega cap shares dragged as Apple (-1.1%), Tesla (-1.7%), Microsoft (-1.6%), Alphabet (-2.5%) and Amazon (-2%) ended in the red.

10 Jul 2023

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Fed is close to end of rate hiking cycle, central bank officials say
July 10 (Reuters) – The Federal Reserve will likely need to raise interest rates further to bring down inflation that is still too high, but the end to its current monetary policy tightening cycle is getting close, several U.S. central bank officials said on Monday.
The Fed has raised interest rates by 5 percentage points since March 2022 to bring down the highest U.S. inflation in four decades. Fed policymakers opted last month to forego a rate increase to give themselves time to assess the still-developing effects of the previous hikes in borrowing costs, even as most also penciled in at least two more increases by the end of 2023.
"We're likely to need a couple more rate hikes over the course of this year to really bring inflation" sustainably back to the U.S. central bank's 2% goal, San Francisco Fed President Mary Daly said during an event at the Brookings Institution, giving voice to the most common view among her rate-setting peers at the Fed.
But, Daly added, while the risks of doing too little are still greater than those of overdoing it on rate hikes, the two sides are getting into better balance as the Fed nears "the last part" of its hiking cycle.
Daly said she fully supported June's policy decision, along with a go-slower approach that allows for more "extreme" data-dependence. "We may end up doing less because we need to do less; we may end up doing just that; we could end up doing more. The data will tell us." Fed policymakers are widely expected to deliver a rate hike at their meeting later this month, a move that would bring the policy rate to the 5.25%-5.50% range.
What's less clear is whether they will raise rates again at the September meeting, wait until November, or just stay on hold and let inflation ease over time.
Fed Chair Jerome Powell has said he cannot rule out consecutive rate hikes to deal with stubbornly high inflation, which by the central bank's preferred gauge, the personal consumption expenditures index, has fallen from a peak of 7% last year to 3.8% in May, still nearly twice the Fed's target.
"We still have a bit of work to do," Fed Vice Chair for Supervision Michael Barr said on Monday at a separate event. "I'll just say for myself, I think we're close." Atlanta Fed President Raphael Bostic, speaking at yet another event on Monday, repeated his view that the Fed can be "patient" on rates and allow restrictive policy to bring down inflation without further action by the central bank.
But within the Fed there remains a camp that feels just the opposite.
"In June, I was in the camp that we move up a little bit more and, in assessing where things are today, I'm still in that camp," Cleveland Fed President Loretta Mester said at an event held by the University of California, San Diego.
Still, she said, "we are closer to the end of our tightening phase than the beginning."

11 Jul 2023

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US 10-Year Treasury Yield Down for 2nd Session

The yield on the US 10-year Treasury note fell below 4%, retreating for the second consecutive session after hitting its highest since November 2022 at almost 4.1% as investors turned cautious ahead of key economic data that could influence the Federal Reserve’s next interest rate policy moves. The CPI report on Wednesday is expected to show headline annual inflation fell to 3.1% in June from 4% in the previous month, while the core index probably decreased to 5% from 5.3%. Markets are now pricing in a 94.9% chance of rates being hiked again during the central bank’s upcoming meeting on July 25-26 but uncertainty remains for the other three Fed meetings scheduled for later in the year. In the latest Fed commentary, Fed President Mary Daly said that she expects two further rate hikes to be announced this year to lower inflation, in line with early comments from Fed Chairman Jerome Powell.

Americans Become More Pessimistic in July
The IBD/TIPP Economic Optimism Index in the US unexpectedly fell to 41.3 in July 2023, the lowest since November last year, compared to 41.7 in June and market forecasts of 45.3. It also marks a 23rd month the reading stands below 50, indicating Americans remain pessimistic. “The economy continues to be the number one issue for Americans as we prepare for earnings season and new inflation data. The Six-Month Economic Outlook was the lone bright spot for July, as optimism slightly increased for the long-term, but it’s still a long way from positive. Expect some more twists and turns before consumers trust that the economy has stabilized”, said Ed Carson, IBD's news editor. The Personal Financial Outlook, a measure of how Americans feel about their own finances in the next six months, fell to 50 from 51.9 and the gauge for Confidence in Federal Economic Policies edged lower to 38.5 from 38.6. On the other hand, the Six-Month Economic Outlook rose to 35.5 from 34.5.

11 Jul 2023

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Wall Street Extends Gain Ahead of CPI Data
US stocks closed higher on Tuesday, extending gains for the second session, as investors looked forward to the key inflation report due tomorrow. The Dow Jones finished over 316 points higher, as Salesforce rose 3.9% after the company announced it will be increasing list prices an average of 9% in August. 3M and Boeing were also among the top performers and advanced by 4.8% and 2.6%, respectively. The S&P 500 gained nearly 0.7%, led by the energy sector as APA (+6.3%), Halliburton (+4.2%) and Schlumberger (+4.5%) outperformed. Meanwhile, the Nasdaq added 0.5%. Traders were also digesting comments from several Fed officials which continued to point to the need of further tightening this year. The odds for a 25bps increase in the fed funds rate this year currently stand at 95%, but investors remain divided about another rate hike. The economic calendar is soft today and the earnings season kicks off later in the week.

12 Jul 2023

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Dollar Index Hits 14-month Low

DXY decreased to a 14-month low of 100.61

Wall Street Rallies after Softer Inflation
US stocks surged on Wednesday after both headline and core inflation fell more than expected in June, reinforcing the view the Federal Reserve may stop the tightening campaign sooner than expected. The Dow Jones gained around 250 points to 34548, the highest level since November last year, with 3M and Goldman Sachs up nearly 2% and among the top performers. The S&P 500 added 0.9% 4477, a level not seen since April of 2022, led by shares in the consumer discretionary, tech and real estate sectors. The Nasdaq was up about 1.2% to 13906, also the highest since April last year. Traders are currently pricing in a 92% chance for a 25bps increase in the fed funds rate this month, while the odds for another quarter-point hike in September fell to 13% from 20% before the CPI release and in November eased to 26% from 34%.

Brazil Business Morale Rises to 8-Month High
The Industrial Entrepreneur Confidence Index (ICEI) in Brazil rose by 0.7 points from the previous month to an eight-month high of 51.1 in July of 2023. This marks the second consecutive month in which the industry has shown confidence, attributed primarily to a more positive evaluation of the current economic conditions (+1.3 points to 45.5). Also, the indicator of future expectations increased (+0.4 points to 53.9), indicating optimism for the next six months.
FTSE MIB Close Rise to 15-Year High
The FTSE MIB index closed 1.8% higher at 28,573 on Wednesday, outperforming other benchmark European indices amid sharp gains for its heavyweight financial sector as markets digested the soft US inflation print. American consumer prices rose by 3% annually in June, below estimates of 3.1%, benefitting from a slowdown in core consumer prices. The development lifted equities amid hopes that the Fed will be able to ease its hawkish pressure. Banks were among the sharpest gainers as BTP yields fell by 15bps, aiding their balance sheet with Banca MPS and Banco BPM both adding more than 2%. In the meantime, STMicroelectronics shares surged 4.8% amid recommendation updates from Jeffries and Citigroup.

12 Jul 2023

Catatan

Dollar Index Hits 14-month Low

DXY decreased to a 14-month low of 100.61

Wall Street Rallies after Softer Inflation
US stocks surged on Wednesday after both headline and core inflation fell more than expected in June, reinforcing the view the Federal Reserve may stop the tightening campaign sooner than expected. The Dow Jones gained around 250 points to 34548, the highest level since November last year, with 3M and Goldman Sachs up nearly 2% and among the top performers. The S&P 500 added 0.9% 4477, a level not seen since April of 2022, led by shares in the consumer discretionary, tech and real estate sectors. The Nasdaq was up about 1.2% to 13906, also the highest since April last year. Traders are currently pricing in a 92% chance for a 25bps increase in the fed funds rate this month, while the odds for another quarter-point hike in September fell to 13% from 20% before the CPI release and in November eased to 26% from 34%.

Brazil Business Morale Rises to 8-Month High
The Industrial Entrepreneur Confidence Index (ICEI) in Brazil rose by 0.7 points from the previous month to an eight-month high of 51.1 in July of 2023. This marks the second consecutive month in which the industry has shown confidence, attributed primarily to a more positive evaluation of the current economic conditions (+1.3 points to 45.5). Also, the indicator of future expectations increased (+0.4 points to 53.9), indicating optimism for the next six months.
FTSE MIB Close Rise to 15-Year High
The FTSE MIB index closed 1.8% higher at 28,573 on Wednesday, outperforming other benchmark European indices amid sharp gains for its heavyweight financial sector as markets digested the soft US inflation print. American consumer prices rose by 3% annually in June, below estimates of 3.1%, benefitting from a slowdown in core consumer prices. The development lifted equities amid hopes that the Fed will be able to ease its hawkish pressure. Banks were among the sharpest gainers as BTP yields fell by 15bps, aiding their balance sheet with Banca MPS and Banco BPM both adding more than 2%. In the meantime, STMicroelectronics shares surged 4.8% amid recommendation updates from Jeffries and Citigroup.

12 Jul 2023

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Dollar Index Hits 14-month Low

12 Jul 2023

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US Stocks Pop on Cooling Inflation
All major US stocks indexes were trading in the green on Wednesday afternoon as June CPI data came cooler-than-expected, raising hopes that Fed officials might rethink their stance on more rate hikes. The Dow Jones was up more than 100 points after reaching the highest level since November earlier in the session, as Salesforce, Goldman Sachs and Home Depot outperformed, adding nearly 2% each. The S&P 500 gained 0.8%, a level not seen since April of 2022, led by shares in the consumer discretionary, tech and basic materials sectors. The Nasdaq was up about 1.2%, also the highest since April last year. Bank stocks advanced firmly, with Citigroup and Goldman Sachs adding 2.9% and 2.5%, respectively. Also, regional banks such as Comerica(5.1%) and Zions Bancorporation (4.9%). In the news, Domino's Pizza surged over 11% after revealing its deal with Uber Eats.
All major US stocks indexes were trading in the green on Wednesday afternoon as June CPI data came cooler-than-expected, raising hopes that Fed officials might rethink their stance on more rate hikes. The Dow Jones was up more than 100 points after reaching the highest level since November earlier in the session, as Salesforce, Goldman Sachs and Home Depot outperformed, adding nearly 2% each. The S&P 500 gained 0.8%, a level not seen since April of 2022, led by shares in the consumer discretionary, tech and basic materials sectors. The Nasdaq was up about 1.2%, also the highest since April last year. Bank stocks advanced firmly, with Citigroup and Goldman Sachs adding 2.9% and 2.5%, respectively. Also, regional banks such as Comerica(5.1%) and Zions Bancorporation (4.9%). In the news, Domino's Pizza surged over 11% after revealing its deal with Uber Eats.Japanese Yen attempting fifth consecutive daily advance (first time since December)
USD/JPY plunge now approaching major support confluence- risk for price inflection
Resistance 140.10s, 140.93, 142.10/50 (key)- support 137.36/91, 136.15, 134.04
The Japanese Yen has continued to coil just below uptrend resistance with major event risk on tap into the close of the week. The focus is on a breakout of the monthly opening-range for guidance. These are the updated targets and invalidation levels that matter on the USD/JPY short-term technical charts.
Initial resistance now eyed at the 75% parallel (blue slope currently ~140.10s) backed by the objective May high at 140.93. Ultimately, a breach / close above the weekly open / 61.8% retracement of the 2022 decline at 142.10/50 would be needed to mark resumption of the broader USD/JPY uptrend.

Bottom line: The USD/JPY plunge us approaching the first major technical support hurdle just below the 138-handle. From at trading standpoint, look to reduce portions of short-exposure / lower protective stops on a stretch towards this key support zone – rallies should be limited to the weekly open IF price is heading lower on this stretch. I’ll publish an updated Japanese Yen Weekly Forecast once we get further clarity on the longer-term USD/JPY technical trade levels.

13 Jul 2023

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Wall Street Ends Higher after CPI

The RICS UK Residential Market Survey house price balance, which measures the gap between the percentage of respondents seeing rises and falls in house prices, fell to -46 in June 2023 from -30 in May, posting the weakest reading in four months and coming in below forecasts of -34. This points to a slowdown in the British housing market as higher borrowing costs weighed on demand, with average two-year fixed mortgage rates in the country recently hitting a 15-year high. Expectations that the Bank of England will raise interest rates further this year to bring down inflation also dampened sentiment. Simon Rubinsohn, chief economics at RICS, said: “The latest increase in interest rates and the impact this has already had on mortgage rates is clearly visible in buyer enquiries, sales and prices which have all retreated over the past month.”
The BusinessNZ Performance of Manufacturing Index in New Zealand fell to 47.5 in June 2023 from 48.9 in the previous month. It marked the fourth straight month of contraction in the manufacturing sector and the steepest since last November as activities negatively influenced by declining demand, cost increases and production/staffing issues as the key negative influences on activity for the current month. Production (47.5 vs 45.7 in May) remained subdued and new orders (43.8 vs 50.8) fell back to contraction zone. Meanwhile, employment (47 vs 49.5) contracted further while deliveries (50.5 vs 46) rebounded.
Brazil’s Ibovespa stock index gave up on earlier gains to close 0.1% higher to finish around 117,700 on Wednesday, inline with global positive mood, after the US inflation data came in below expectations in June, even the core measures, suggesting a possible turning point for Federal Reserve policymakers in the coming months. On the domestic data front, services activity in Brazil grew by a more-than-expected 0.9% in May, following a decline of 1.5% in the previous month, placing the sector 11.5% above the pre-pandemic level of February 2020. On the corporate front, shares in the world's largest meatpacker JBS surged 9%, the most in the index, after proposing a dual listing of shares in Sao Paulo and New York in a securities filing today. It was followed by B3 (+2.4%), Gerdau (+2.1%) and PetroRio (+2%).

14 Jul 2023

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US Futures Steady Ahead of Major Bank Earnings
US stock futures held steady on Friday after four-day winning streak on Wall Street as investors look ahead to earnings reports from major banks. Futures contracts tied to the three major indexes were all trading near breakeven. In regular trading on Thursday, the Dow rose 0.14%, the S&P 500 gained 0.85% and the Nasdaq Composite rallied 1.58%, with nine out of the 11 S&P sectors ending higher led to the upside by communication services, technology and consumer discretionary. Those gains came as the latest producer price index report showed inflation rose less than anticipated in June, adding to signs that US inflation is on a downward trend and raising hopes that the current tightening cycle is nearing the end. Investors now await earnings reports from big banks such as JPMorgan, Wells Fargo and Citi on Friday for more clues on the economy. US consumer sentiment data from the University of Michigan is also on deck.

14 Jul 2023

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BULLish

14 Jul 2023

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The greenback is approaching a make-or-break moment — at least as far as a closely watched technical indicator is concerned.

The Bloomberg Dollar Index has now surrendered more than 61.8% of its gains since May 2021, bringing it to one of the Fibonacci retracement levels popular among chart watchers. They tend to keep a close eye on these indicators to determine whether or not trends will extend or reverse.

What happens next is therefore crucial.

If the index remains below this point over the coming sessions, it would be a strong signal to traders that the currency’s losses are the beginning of a new longer-term downtrend, and not just an aberration.

The latest bout of weakness comes as the market now sees an end to a tightening spree that Federal Reserve officials begun communicating more than two years ago. The prospect is narrowing interest-rate differentials with other major currencies and weighing on the dollar.

This week, it dropped to the weakest level against euro and pound since early 2022. It’s even falling out of favor against the yen — where rates are still negative — with the cross falling to a two-month low.

The bearish signal seen in the chart of the Bloomberg Dollar Index could be soon validated elsewhere too. The ICE Dollar Index — a popular alternative to the BBDXY — stands just 0.6% higher than the 61.8% Fibonacci retracement of a rally that kicked off in January 2021.

To be sure, options paint a more mixed picture. While long-term bets are supportive of the US currency’s prospects, sentiment over a one-month sentiment has reached its least bullish level since September 2020.

14 Jul 2023

Catatan

The greenback is approaching a make-or-break moment — at least as far as a closely watched technical indicator is concerned.

The Bloomberg Dollar Index has now surrendered more than 61.8% of its gains since May 2021, bringing it to one of the Fibonacci retracement levels popular among chart watchers. They tend to keep a close eye on these indicators to determine whether or not trends will extend or reverse.

What happens next is therefore crucial.

If the index remains below this point over the coming sessions, it would be a strong signal to traders that the currency’s losses are the beginning of a new longer-term downtrend, and not just an aberration.

The latest bout of weakness comes as the market now sees an end to a tightening spree that Federal Reserve officials begun communicating more than two years ago. The prospect is narrowing interest-rate differentials with other major currencies and weighing on the dollar.

This week, it dropped to the weakest level against euro and pound since early 2022. It’s even falling out of favor against the yen — where rates are still negative — with the cross falling to a two-month low.

The bearish signal seen in the chart of the Bloomberg Dollar Index could be soon validated elsewhere too. The ICE Dollar Index — a popular alternative to the BBDXY — stands just 0.6% higher than the 61.8% Fibonacci retracement of a rally that kicked off in January 2021.

To be sure, options paint a more mixed picture. While long-term bets are supportive of the US currency’s prospects, sentiment over a one-month sentiment has reached its least bullish level since September 2020.

14 Jul 2023

Catatan

USDJPY BULLISH WILL Go to 180 Yen
LONG
the Bank of Japan is unlikely to increase its ultra-loose policy rate until Governor Kuroda's term expires in the first quarter of 2023.

A break below 124is the start of bearish trend.

Technical: BULLISH
STRATEGY
BUY THE CORRECTION
Higher Highs
Higher Lows


Fundamentals:

See my previouse USDJPY trade ideas.All Tades are active, and a lot of fundamental explanations of USDJPY. Read them.Undestand them,then you can mae good trades.

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14 Jul 2023

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Week Ahead - July 17th

Next week, investors will focus on the earnings results from major US companies, such as Bank of America, Morgan Stanley, Goldman Sachs, IBM, Netflix, Tesla, and Johnson & Johnson. Additionally, it will be interesting to monitor retail sales, industrial production, and housing data, including existing home sales, housing starts, and building permits. In other news, China is set to release Q2 GDP growth, retail sales, industrial production, and fixed asset investments. Markets will also be attentive to inflation rates in the United Kingdom, Canada, Japan, New Zealand, and South Africa. Furthermore, the central banks of Turkey and South Africa will make decisions regarding monetary policy, Australia will publish the unemployment rate, and the UK and Canada will release retail sales data.

16 Jul 2023

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Bitcoin long will Go highe after Profit Taking
LONG

17 Jul 2023

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bullish

18 Jul 2023

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bullish trade open

18 Jul 2023

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bullish trade open

18 Jul 2023

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All major US stock indexes finished higher on Tuesday, at the levels not seen since early April 2022, boosted by stronger-than-expected earnings results from some of the country’s top lenders and a rally in AI-linked stocks. The Dow Jones soared over 360 points or 1%, the S&P 500 and the Nasdaq gained 0.7% each. Stocks of Morgan Stanley surged 6.4% after the bank's earnings and revenue beat forecasts. Shares of Bank of N.Y. Mellon added 4.1% after reporting better-than-expected profit and revenue, Bank of America jumped 4.4% after an earnings beat and Charles Schwab jumped 12.5% after reporting stronger profit and revenue. Microsoft shares rose 3.9%, hitting all-time high of $366.78 during the session after announcing a new AI subscription service for Microsoft 365. On the losing end, Masimo tumbled 20% after the medical equipment maker said it expects to report weaker-than-expected revenue for the spring quarter.

19 Jul 2023

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Bond Yields Continue to Fall
Government bond yields around the world fell for a third day on Wednesday, with the US 10-year Treasury note yield retreating to 3.74%, a fresh low since late June. Investors are getting increasingly convinced that major central banks, and specially the Fed will soon end their tightening campaign. Bets for a 25bps hike in the fed funds rate next week currently stand at 97% but investors remain divided on the need of further increases, with chances for a September increase currently standing at 12% and for November at 23%. Meanwhile, the ECB is also set to raise rates by 25bps again next week while there is just a 70% chance of a further rate rise in September. In the UK, another increase in borrowing costs is seen as certain next month, but a smaller-than-expected inflation reading for June lowered bets on further BOE rate hikes. On the other hand, traders are increasingly speculating the Bank of Japan could adjust its ultra loose monetary policy next week.

European Markets Head for Higher Open
European equity markets were headed for a higher open on Wednesday as investors reacted to data showing the annual consumer inflation in the UK stood at 7.9% in June, the lowest reading since March 2022 and below forecasts of 8.2%. Investors also await final euro zone inflation figures later on Wednesday to guide the economic and monetary policy outlook in the region. Moreover, markets look ahead to the latest earnings report from Dutch chip industry giant ASML, as well as from major US firms such as Tesla, Netflix and Goldman Sachs. DAX and Stoxx 600 futures rose 0.2% in premarket trade, while FTSE 100 futures jumped 0.8%.

19 Jul 2023

Catatan

Bond Yields Continue to Fall
Government bond yields around the world fell for a third day on Wednesday, with the US 10-year Treasury note yield retreating to 3.74%, a fresh low since late June. Investors are getting increasingly convinced that major central banks, and specially the Fed will soon end their tightening campaign. Bets for a 25bps hike in the fed funds rate next week currently stand at 97% but investors remain divided on the need of further increases, with chances for a September increase currently standing at 12% and for November at 23%. Meanwhile, the ECB is also set to raise rates by 25bps again next week while there is just a 70% chance of a further rate rise in September. In the UK, another increase in borrowing costs is seen as certain next month, but a smaller-than-expected inflation reading for June lowered bets on further BOE rate hikes. On the other hand, traders are increasingly speculating the Bank of Japan could adjust its ultra loose monetary policy next week.

European Markets Head for Higher Open
European equity markets were headed for a higher open on Wednesday as investors reacted to data showing the annual consumer inflation in the UK stood at 7.9% in June, the lowest reading since March 2022 and below forecasts of 8.2%. Investors also await final euro zone inflation figures later on Wednesday to guide the economic and monetary policy outlook in the region. Moreover, markets look ahead to the latest earnings report from Dutch chip industry giant ASML, as well as from major US firms such as Tesla, Netflix and Goldman Sachs. DAX and Stoxx 600 futures rose 0.2% in premarket trade, while FTSE 100 futures jumped 0.8%.

19 Jul 2023

Catatan

Japan will release some key data over the coming days that could provide some directionality for the JPY. The yen hasn’t been acting all that “normally” recently, as traders hang on comments from Japanese officials that might indicate intervention to support the currency.
To make matters more confusing, the head of the BOJ, Kazuo Ueda, has said some things that appear to be contradictory. There’s a ball of forex yarn here that needs to be untangled to get a better idea of where the yen could be headed in the medium-to-long term.

First, the data
Tomorrow, Japan will publish its trade balance which is expected to see a dramatic reduction in the trade deficit to just ¥46.7B from ¥1.37T reported in May. Japan typically has relatively large fluctuations in its trade statistics, but if the forecast is correct, it would be the smallest deficit since the latter part of 2021. The weakness of the currency (and brief recovery earlier this year) have been a key factor affecting the trade balance, which is an important component for the BOJ’s decision-making.

The shrinking deficit is expected to be because imports are forecast to decline while exports are expected to grow. Part of that dynamic is seen as a result of the weaker yen meaning that exports are priced at a higher value. On the other hand, the shrinking imports are a sign of lack of dynamism in the economy. The erosion of purchasing power from a weaker currency could mean Japanese citizens are buying fewer things. That would be a worrying sign for the BOJ.

What’s the BOJ up to?
Just last Sunday, the Governor of the BOJ admitted that the weakness in the yen was a concern, and that the bank could take measures to address it. He used more technical speech, of course, talking about restoring market pricing. But the takeaway is what mattered for the market reaction. Just two days later, on Tuesday, he appeared to backtrack, saying that the BOJ is committed to easing.

This changing commentary shows the dilemma of the BOJ, which wants to keep easing in order to support the economy. That means not worrying about a weaker yen, because that helps exports. But the weaker yen has contributed to rising inflation, and slowing the economy. So the BOJ would be worried about a weaker yen.

Clearing up the situation
Ueda has repeatedly said that he wants to see inflation “sustainably” rising at the target rate of 2%. Inflation has been higher than that for months now. What he means is that the current bout of high inflation is seen as “temporary”, and the result of non-market driven yen weakness that has raised the cost of imported goods. “Non-market driven” here means things like carry trade and bets that the BOJ won’t intervene as the currency weakens. The BOJ is trying to cajole markets into getting the yen higher without actually having to do anything to strengthen the yen.

If inflation turns around and starts rising, however, the BOJ might have to come to the conclusion that they can’t have their cake and eat it too. That might prompt a move towards shoring up the yen, such as widening the YCC again. Japanese annual June inflation is expected to tick up to 3.3% from 3.2% prior.

19 Jul 2023

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Bitcoin lagging gold despite weakening dollar: A Bitcoin, gold, USD analysis

The dollar continues to weak, now 12.5% off its 20-year high last year
Gold and Bitcoin tend to strengthen when the dollar falls
The relationship has turned this week though with Bitcoin lagging

The dollar continues to get hammered.

After dominating virtually every currency throughout the COVID pandemic, the DXY index, which measures the strength of the greenback against a basket of major currencies, hit a twenty-year high in Q4 of last year. Since then, however, it has shed 12.5% of its value.
The fall comes as inflation continues to cool, with the most recent CPI data putting year-over-year inflation at 3%. While core inflation remains a little stickier, the market is nonetheless betting that one of the fastest rate-hiking cycles in recent history is finally coming to a close.
The dollar strengthens in times of uncertainty because correlations go to one in a crisis, while there is a flight to safety as investors peel back on the risk curve. And there is no safer asset than the global reserve currency, so the dollar picks up steam in such turbulent periods.
While the last couple of years do not quantify as a recession, the turbulent climate which has arisen out of rampant inflation and spiking interest rates (not to mention a once-in-a generation global pandemic and all the bespoke economic fallout that entailed) has caused mass uncertainty. This in turn has increased the attractiveness of the dollar.


Additionally, the faster pace of interest rates in the US compared to many nations worldwide has encouraged capital to flow into the greenback. But with inflation cooling off and the market betting the rate hiking cycle is now nearing its conclusion, the climate has changed – and the dollar has pulled back as a result.

How are other assets affected by the dollar?
This is all relatively straight-forward, but what does this mean for other assets?

Well, as mentioned above, the dollar is the global reserve currency, meaning it is also the lifeblood of the global financial system. In such a way, the effects are widespread. If we look at the classic example of gold, a falling dollar means it takes more dollars to purchase the same amount of gold (and vice-versa). So we tend to see gold rise when the dollar falls, even if it may be nothing to do with gold itself.

In the next chart, I have plotted the correlation between the dollar index and gold over the last year, which shows a strong negative relationship in the -0.8 to -0.9 range for much of the period (albeit with a recent weakening).
Let’s now look at Bitcoin, gold’s wannabe best friend.With Bitcoin far more volatile as an asset than gold, and given the numerous crypto-specific scandals (Terra, Celsius, FTX etc) of the past year, this is unsurprising.Why is Bitcoin selling off amid dollar weakness?
This takes us to an interesting finding: why is Bitcoin not being buoyed by this weaker dollar? Gold is up 2.4% in the last week, taking advantage of the dollar’s dip. On the other hand, Bitcoin has actually fallen slightly, which goes against trend.

In truth, I am not really sure why the buying activity has been subdued. Perhaps buyers did their part after the XRP ruling last week, and are hesitant to pile further in while the market finds its footing. But that is a shaky theory at best.

Even looking at miners in the next chart, we can see that they are offloading Bitcoin rather than buying, which they have been doing since the start of the month. It seems that for whatever reason, there are just not as many buyers out there in the last week compared to normal, and the sell pressure has not been soaked up by a softening dollar. To be clear, this is far from alarming and a totally benign occurrence. My gut feeling is that this is simply a summer lag, which has tended to see the lowest trading activity in Bitcoin markets in the past, too.

Either way, it’s an interesting little tidbit. The relationship between gold, Bitcoin and dollar is always fascinating to track as it incorporates so much macro and so many intriguing variables, so it is worth keeping an eye on. If the trend continues to deviate, a deeper analysis may be warranted. But for now, it feels OK to assume this is just buyers taking a little summer break, and a minor abnormality.

20 Jul 2023

Catatan

This trade is stil open and active

relevant market wraps
European Markets Head for Muted Open

European equity markets were headed for a muted open on Thursday as investors braced for the start of the earnings season in the region. Major European firms slated to report earnings today include SAP, EasyJet, Volvo Car, Publicis, ABB and Nokia. Investors also turned cautious after shares of key technology names in the US dropped in post-market trade on disappointing quarterly results. DAX, Stoxx 600 and FTSE 100 futures all fluctuated around the flatline in premarket trade.
Gold Hits 2-Month High on Fed Pause Bets
Japan 10-Year Yield Steadies Around 0.46%
Japan’s 10-year government bond yield steadied around 0.46% as a dovish outlook on Bank of Japan monetary policy kept the benchmark yield below the upper limit of the target range. BOJ Governor Kazuo Ueda recently stated that there was still some distance to sustainably and stably achieve the central bank’s 2% inflation target, indicating the BOJ’s commitment to ultra-easy monetary policy. Last month, the central bank held its short-term interest rate target at -0.1% and that of 10-year bond yields at around 0% by a unanimous vote, in line with expectations. Falling bond yields in other major economies also reduced upward pressure on JGB yields, as easing inflationary pressures raised hopes that the end of the current monetary policy tightening cycle is close.

Japan Raises This Year’s Price View to 2.6% Ahead of BOJ Meet
The Japanese government raised its overall inflation forecast to 2.6% for the current fiscal year ahead of the central bank’s policy decision meeting next week, the Cabinet Office said Thursday. The upward revision from the previous forecast of 1.7% shows stronger-than-expected inflationary pressure. Japan saw that trend holding up even after accounting for government price-relief measures, which the Cabinet Office says shaves 0.5 percentage points off this year’s price reading. For fiscal 2024, the government expects overall inflation to slow to 1.9%.

21 Jul 2023

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Japan Inflation Rate Below Estimates in JuneJapan Inflation Rate
The annual inflation rate in Japan edged up to 3.3% in June 2023 from 3.2% in May but less than market forecasts of 3.5%. Core inflation also ticked higher to 3.3% in June from 3.2% in May, matching consensus but staying outside the Bank of Japan's 2% target for the 15th month. On a monthly basis, consumer prices rose 0.2% after being flat in May.
Dow Extends Winning Streak, Tech Drag
The Dow Jones closed 163 points higher on Thursday, marking its ninth-straight session of gains and its longest winning streak since September 2017. Meanwhile, the S&P 500 and the Nasdaq lost 0.7% and 2%, respectively dragged by tech shares as latest corporate earnings were in focus. Johnson & Johnson was the top performer and soared around 6% on upbeat revenue and earnings, helping propel the Dow. Travelers added 1.8% higher after beating on revenue but falling short of expectations on earnings. IBM shares were nearly 2.1% higher despite its disappointing revenue. Conversely, Netflix lost 8.4% after the company's revenue missed forecasts. Also, Tesla tumbled 9.7%, its biggest daily percentage drop since April 20 after reporting a drop in its second-quarter gross margins to a four-year low and Elon Musk hinted at more price cuts. Blackstone moved 0.7% lower after a 39% drop in earnings and American Airlines sank 6.2% despite raising its earnings outlook for 2023.

22 Jul 2023

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trade is open

22 Jul 2023

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trade is open

23 Jul 2023

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Update:
Bitcoin price today is $ 29,922 with a 24-hour trading volume of $ 34.18B, market cap of $ 581.50B, and market dominance of 48.04%. The BTC price increased 0.25% in the last 24 hours.

Bitcoin reached its highest price on Nov 10, 2021 when it was trading at its all-time high of $ 68,770, while Bitcoin's lowest price was recorded on Jul 17, 2010 when it was trading at its all-time low of $ 0.050000. The lowest price since it's ATH was $ 15,599 (cycle low). The highest BTC price since the last cycle low was $ 31,804 (cycle high). The Bitcoin price prediction sentiment is currently bullish
Based on technical indicators, Bitcoin's 200-day SMA will rise in the next month and will hit $ 27,429 by Aug 22, 2023. Bitcoin's short-term 50-Day SMA is estimated to hit $ 32,209 by Aug 22, 2023.

The Relative Strength Index (RSI) momentum oscillator is a popular indicator that signals whether a cryptocurrency is oversold (below 30) or overbought (above 70). Currently, the RSI value is at 49.30, which indicates that the BTC market is in a neutral position.

23 Jul 2023

Catatan

trade is open.
Trade setup as on the chart above explained and mentioned is open(See the Time Frame): The Trade setup above is only based on daily,weekly,monthly and 4 Hours timeframe. For daytraders who are involved on lower time frame you need to calculate or possibly use your other strategies. The trade setup above is only created for trend followers, also daytraders can benefit of it, if they choose to.

23 Jul 2023

Catatan

trade is open.
Trade setup as on the chart above explained and mentioned is open(See the Time Frame): The Trade setup above is only based on daily,weekly,monthly and 4 Hours timeframe. For daytraders who are involved on lower time frame you need to calculate or possibly use your other strategies. The trade setup above is only created for trend followers, also daytraders can benefit of it, if they choose to.

23 Jul 2023

Catatan

Low volatility next week till friday. The pullbacks are profit takings, low trading volume and low volatility of the market makers.

Trading oppurtunities are in USD FX specially USD JPY...Keep monitor them closely.

24 Jul 2023

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Dow Rises for 11th Session

The Dow Jones added nearly 100 points to book an 11th straight session of gains on Monday, with Chevron among the top performers (1.8%) after reporting better-than-expected earnings. Meanwhile, the S&P 500 was up about 0.3%, led by a nearly 1.5% gain for the energy sector, namely shares of Halliburton (2.5%), as oil prices touched a three-month high. On the other hand, the Nasdaq failed to hold early gains and was down about 0.2%, with Amazon (-1.2%) and Tesla (-0.7%) weighing. Investors brace for the Fed's monetary policy decision on Wednesday, with another 25bps increase in the fed funds rate already priced in, although traders will be looking for any clues on whether the Fed will stop the tightening cycle or believes further increases are still necessary. Meanwhile, the earnings season continues with about 40% of the Dow and 30% of the S&P 500 giving their financial updates during the week, including Alphabet, Meta Platforms, Microsoft, GE, 3M, General Motors, Boeing and Amazon.

US Private Sector Growth Slows to 5-Month Low
The S&P Global US Composite PMI declined to 52.0 in July 2023, down from 53.2 the previous month, as shown in a preliminary estimate. The latest reading indicated the softest pace of expansion in private sector business activity since February, with service activity growth easing to a five-month low, and manufacturing output levels remaining relatively unchanged. Total new orders rose the least since April, amid reports of constraints on client spending, including higher interest rates, while the rate of job creation was only marginal, marking the weakest level since January. On the price front, input prices increased the least since October 2020, while the rate of output charge inflation picked up as firms sought to pass through higher costs and increased interest rate payments to customers. Finally, business confidence dipped to the lowest level so far this year.

26 Jul 2023

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Trade open
Bought today more Bitcoin.New Buy Signal

26 Jul 2023

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masdaq bullish after FOMC , I bouht more nowmy target stays at 21000
Next FED meeting in nov. december is much more important..

long dow jones long rty long indices and stocks

26 Jul 2023

Catatan

masdaq bullish after FOMC , I bouht more nowmy target stays at 21000
Next FED meeting in nov. december is much more important..

long dow jones long rty long indices and stocks

27 Jul 2023

Catatan

Trade open
Long
VIX DOWN DXY DOWN

The US economy grew 2.4% GDP in Q2
US Futures Extend Gains after Upbeat GDP Growth
US stock futures extended gains on Thursday, with contracts on the Dow Jones jumping about 170 points, S&P 500 gaining 0.9% and the Nasdaq 100 up 1.6% as investors cheered fresh data and corporate earnings results. The US economy grew 2.4% GDP in Q2, surpassing market expectations of 1.8% expansion in a sign the US economy remains resilient despite high-interest rates. Meanwhile, Meta Platforms surged about 10% in premarket trading after reporting strong earnings and profit and a better-than-expected forecast for the current period. Comcast jumped over 2.5% after earnings and revenue came higher than anticipated and McDonald's was up about 1.3% after sales topped forecasts. Mastercard was also in the green (0.6%) after delivering strong revenue and earnings growth. Intel, Ford and T-Mobile are due to report today after the closing bell.

US Initial Jobless Claims Fall to 5-Month Low

US GDP Grows at a Stronger 2.4%

31 Jul 2023

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US Stocks on Track to End July More than 3% Higher

1 Agu 2023

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DXY down,sweep lows, trade open bullish

10 Agu 2023

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Nasdaq SP500 Dow Reversal
Trend up US 10-Year Treasury Auction Sees Decent Demand Despite Yield Under 4%

DCY down
Oil UP
Nasdaq Bullish
Dow Bullish
RTY Bullish
SP500 Bullish
Wait for CPI today. Possible Correction(I hope so that the makrket goes down first to 15000-14500) That is exactly the Gap Fill ,before Nasdaq Flies to 15850 and 16250 2nd Gap FILL)...So ge ready ,wait and watch closely the supports and resistances,better with Divergenes. In the chats and social media a lot of amateur traders are nervouse, becuz no trading experiences.So stop listening to them...Chats will cost you money. Instead relax,wait,have patience till we get the buy zones. Read comments above. I mentioned already Picadelli Points.

11 Agu 2023

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Perfect!Gap filling i over. The bear tap wants you to jump into short selling before it rises higher..Avoide bear traps. I baought today more nasdaq at 1477514995 again. The market will go higher . Next week FOMC. Meeting. Fundamentals are bullish.Infalition going don.

Next week, investors will eagerly follow the FOMC minutes release for additional insights into the Fed's plans for the remainder of the year. In the US, retail sales and industrial production will also be in the spotlight. Elsewhere, the upcoming week is poised to bring a flurry of significant economic releases, including China industrial production and retail sales; GDP and inflation for the Eurozone; Japan GDP growth and inflation; Germany economic sentiment; wholesale and consumer prices for India; inflation, unemployment and retail sales for the UK; Canada CPI; Australia unemployment data; and interest rate decisions from Norway, the Philippines and New Zealand.

Michigan Consumer Confidence Falls In August, But Beats Expectations: Declining Inflation, Resilient Job Market Key Factors

12 Agu 2023

Catatan

BTCUSD bullish
95% Traders say No Hike at next FOMC
Dollar Index down
BLX UP
Bitcoin Volume up
Delta bullish
Stochastic 4H bearish
Stochastic Daily weekl monthly Bullish
RSI +69
poc Rising
HH HL daily weekly Monthly 4H
Next target 42500

12 Agu 2023

Catatan

If they say get out.. do the opposite. when they say buy they are looking to use you as their exit.

12 Agu 2023

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Blackrock is going to push us right into bull market

12 Agu 2023

Catatan

The Bitcoin price forecast for the next 30 days is a projection based on the positive/negative trends in the past 30 days.
Bitcoin price today is $ 29,432 with a 24-hour trading volume of $ 31.39B, market cap of $ 572.24B, and market dominance of 48.22%. The BTC price increased 0.02% in the last 24 hours.

Bitcoin reached its highest price on Nov 10, 2021 when it was trading at its all-time high of $ 68,770, while Bitcoin's lowest price was recorded on Jul 17, 2010 when it was trading at its all-time low of $ 0.050000. The lowest price since it's ATH was $ 15,599 (cycle low). The highest BTC price since the last cycle low was $ 31,804 (cycle high). The Bitcoin price prediction sentiment is currently neutral, while Fear & Greed Index is showing 54 (Neutral).
Bitcoin's current circulating supply is 19.44M BTC out of max supply of 21.00M BTC. The current yearly supply inflation rate is 1.69% meaning 323,367 BTC were created in the last year. In terms of market cap, Bitcoin is currently ranked #1 in the Proof-of-Work Coins sector and ranked #1 in the Layer 1 sector.

Highlights
Price has increased by 22% in the last 1 year
Outperformed 86% of the top 100 crypto assets in 1 year
Outperformed Ethereum
Trading above the 200-day simple moving average
Has high liquidity based on its market cap
Trading on Binance
Trading with Euro
Yearly inflation rate is 1.69%

Risk Analysis
Only 13 green days in the last 30 days (43%)
Down -57% from all-time high

Bitcoin is predicted to rise by 11.36% and reach $ 32,757 by August 17, 2023. According to our technical indicators, the current sentiment is Neutral while the Fear & Greed Index is showing 54 (Neutral). Bitcoin recorded 13/30 (43%) green days with 1.69% price volatility over the last 30 days. Based on our Bitcoin forecast, it's now a good time to buy Bitcoin.

The Bitcoin price prediction for 2025 is currently between $ 39,546 on the lower end and $ 163,056 on the high end. Compared to today’s price, Bitcoin could gain 454.01% by 2025 if BTC reaches the upper price target.

Based on data from August 13, 2023 at 01:40, the general Bitcoin price prediction sentiment is neutral , with 16 technical analysis indicators signaling bullish signals, and 13 signaling bearish signals.

Based on our technical indicators, Bitcoin's 200-day SMA will rise in the next month and will hit $ 28,610 by Sep 11, 2023. Bitcoin's short-term 50-Day SMA is estimated to hit $ 32,184 by Sep 11, 2023.

The Relative Strength Index (RSI) momentum oscillator is a popular indicator that signals whether a cryptocurrency is oversold (below 30) or overbought (above 70). Currently, the RSI value is at 47.62, which indicates that the BTC market is in a neutral position.

Over the past 7 days, Bitcoin price was most positively correlated with the price of IOTA (MIOTA), OKB (OKB), Dash (DASH), Cardano (ADA) and Bitcoin Cash (BCH) and most negatively correlated with the price of TRON (TRX), Maker (MKR), EOS (EOS), Bitcoin (BTC) and Bitcoin (BTC).

12 Agu 2023

Catatan

Bitcoin's Tight Correlation With Nasdaq-SPX Ratio Muddies Safe-Haven Narrative

Bitcoin,rose in tandem with the Nasdaq to S&P 500, or NDX/SPX, ratio, a sign the rally was partly, if not mainly, driven by improved risk appetite stemming from hopes for an early Federal Reserve pivot in favor of liquidity-boosting rate cuts.
The NDX/SPX ratio measures the relative difference in valuation between technology stocks represented in the Nasdaq 100 and a basket of broader industry stocks from the S&P 500. The 90-day correlation coefficient between bitcoin and the NDX/SPX ratio rose from 0.81 to 0.90, signaling the strongest positive relationship between the two assets since June 2022. At press time, the correlation coefficient stood at 0.89. The positive correlation means on days when the ratio rises, bitcoin is more likely to do the same and vice versa.
Tech stocks tend to be more sensitive to interest-rate expectations than the broader market. Thus a rising ratio is often equated with dovish Fed expectations and improved investor risk appetite that often percolates into other assets like cryptocurrencies, as observed in 2020 and early 2021. A falling ratio represents a sentiment against risky assets.
The correlation between bitcoin and the NDX/SPX ratio was consistently positive during the 2022 bear market and between May 2020 and March 2021, when the cryptocurrency rallied nearly tenfold to $60,000.
If that's not enough, both have been rallying in lockstep since early January. While bitcoin has risen nearly 70% this year, the ratio is up 11.26%.

13 Agu 2023

Catatan

Bitcoin’s Correlation With S&P 500, Nasdaq Hits Highest Level Since July 2020
The correlation between Bitcoin and two major equity indices, the S&P 500 and Nasdaq, surged to an 18-month high, according to new research.

Historically, Bitcoin has maintained a relatively low correlation to traditional asset classes, including equity indices and commodities like gold.

However, in recent weeks, the leading cryptocurrency's correlation to two major indices—the S&P 500 and Nasdaq—has been on the rise.
However, there are a few factors that can help explain why Bitcoin's correlation might have been positive with these markets during certain periods:

Market Sentiment and Risk Appetite: Bitcoin, as a relatively new and highly volatile asset, can be influenced by similar market sentiment and risk appetite as traditional markets. When investors are optimistic about the economy and financial markets, they may be more willing to invest in riskier assets like Bitcoin, leading to a positive correlation.

Institutional Involvement: The increasing involvement of institutional investors in both traditional markets and the cryptocurrency space can lead to correlated price movements. If large institutional players start allocating funds to both stocks and Bitcoin, it can create a positive correlation as these players rebalance their portfolios.

Global Economic Factors: Major global economic events, such as monetary policy decisions by central banks, geopolitical tensions, and economic indicators, can impact both traditional markets and Bitcoin. When these events affect the broader economy, they may impact both stocks and cryptocurrencies.

Liquidity and Speculation: During times of high liquidity in the markets, where investors are looking for speculative opportunities, Bitcoin can become part of that speculation. When liquidity is ample, correlations between various assets can increase.

Media and Information: News and media coverage can influence investor behavior across different markets. If there is significant coverage or attention on both traditional markets and Bitcoin simultaneously, it can lead to coordinated moves.
Certainly, here are a few additional points to consider regarding the correlation between Bitcoin and traditional financial markets, specifically the S&P 500, NASDAQ, and the technology sector:

Safe-Haven Asset Perception: While Bitcoin is often referred to as "digital gold" and considered a store of value by some investors, it may exhibit positive correlation with traditional markets during periods of economic uncertainty or market turmoil. If investors perceive Bitcoin as a safe-haven asset similar to gold, it could see increased demand when traditional markets are under stress.

Macro Trends and Tech Influence: The technology sector, particularly in the NASDAQ, has been a significant driver of economic growth and innovation. If Bitcoin is seen as a part of this technological innovation and if both the technology sector and Bitcoin are influenced by similar macro trends (e.g., advancements in blockchain technology, digitalization, fintech), this could lead to positive correlation.

Market Evolution: The cryptocurrency market has been evolving, with more mature market structures, increased adoption, and growing integration with traditional finance. This could lead to tighter correlations as market participants become more sophisticated and interconnected, using similar strategies and reacting to common macroeconomic factors.

Global Liquidity: The increasing prevalence of global liquidity injections by central banks can impact both traditional markets and Bitcoin. If central banks take actions that impact liquidity in the financial system, it can lead to coordinated movements in various asset classes, including stocks and cryptocurrencies.

Investor Behavior: Speculative behavior and investor sentiment can drive correlations. If there's a speculative "bubble" mentality, where investors are seeking quick gains across different assets, this can lead to correlated movements as capital flows into multiple markets simultaneously.

13 Agu 2023

Catatan

Further Correlations

IOTA is a cryptocurrency project that focuses on enabling the Internet of Things (IoT) by providing a secure and scalable infrastructure for machine-to-machine communication and transactions. The project aims to solve some of the challenges related to IoT, such as data integrity, scalability, and transaction fees.

The NASDAQ is a major stock exchange in the United States, known for listing many technology companies, particularly in the tech-heavy NASDAQ Composite Index. The NASDAQ Composite includes a wide range of technology-related companies, such as software, hardware, internet, and other tech-centric businesses.

Regarding the correlation between IOTA (MIOTA) and the NASDAQ or tech sector, it's important to note that cryptocurrency prices, including IOTA, can be influenced by a variety of factors, some of which may be similar to those impacting traditional tech stocks on the NASDAQ. These factors can include market sentiment, technological developments, regulatory news, and overall trends in the technology sector.

However, the correlation between a specific cryptocurrency like IOTA and the NASDAQ, or any particular stock market index, can vary over time and might depend on the specific market conditions, adoption of IOTA in IoT applications, investor interest, and other factors.
Tech stocks, also known as technology stocks, represent shares in companies operating in the technology sector. These companies are often involved in various aspects of technology, including software development, hardware manufacturing, internet services, semiconductors, telecommunications, and other related fields. Traditional tech stocks typically refer to established companies in the technology sector, some of which are listed on stock exchanges like the NASDAQ.

Here's how traditional tech stocks can influence cryptocurrencies like IOTA:

Market Sentiment: Positive or negative sentiment in the broader technology sector can impact investor sentiment across various technology-related assets, including cryptocurrencies like IOTA. If there's positive news or strong performance in tech stocks, it can create a favorable environment for risk-taking, potentially leading to increased investment in cryptocurrencies. Conversely, if there's negative sentiment or a downturn in tech stocks, it might lead to more cautious investor behavior, affecting cryptocurrencies as well.

Investor Overlap: Many investors who are interested in tech stocks may also be interested in cryptocurrencies due to the technological innovation aspect. If tech stocks perform well, it can attract attention to the broader technology theme, leading some investors to explore the cryptocurrency space, including projects like IOTA.

Institutional Participation: As institutional investors, including hedge funds and investment firms, enter the cryptocurrency market, their investment decisions can be influenced by movements in traditional markets. If tech-focused institutional investors have exposure to both tech stocks and cryptocurrencies, their actions in the stock market could potentially impact their views on cryptocurrencies like IOTA.

Risk-On/Risk-Off Dynamics: During periods of increased risk appetite (risk-on), investors might be more willing to explore riskier assets, including cryptocurrencies. Conversely, during risk-off periods, where investors seek safer assets, the interest in riskier assets like cryptocurrencies might decrease. Traditional tech stocks can be part of this risk-on/risk-off dynamic, influencing investor behavior.

Overall Market Trends: If there's a broader trend of optimism or pessimism in the overall stock market, it can spill over into the cryptocurrency market. Investors often assess the macroeconomic environment when making investment decisions across various asset classes, which can lead to correlated movements.

It's important to note that while these are some potential ways traditional tech stocks can influence IOTA and the broader cryptocurrency market, correlations are complex and can change based on various factors. Market participants, news events, technological advancements, regulatory developments, and broader economic trends all play a role in shaping the relationship between tech stocks and cryptocurrencies.

13 Agu 2023

Catatan

Next Week Nasdaq Crypzo Bullish
Bonds down
Bond Market Sees No End to Tumult as Fed Casts a Hawkish Shadow
The rise in long-dated yields has been driven by the hawkish message from the Fed,
In the coming week, traders will scour the release of the minutes from the July 25-26 FOMC meeting for clues on where policymakers see rates heading and any diverging views between them.
Minutes of the July 25-26 FOMC meeting, to be released Aug. 16, will show that a majority of Fed officials were encouraged by progress on disinflation, but not yet convinced the rate-hike cycle is over.”
There are still a whole host of events that could stall these positive market returns, including continuing inflation, perception of credit quality of US government debt, skyrocketing US budget deficits, political instability in the world and more

Aug. 16: MBA Mortgage Applications; building permits; housing starts; industrial production; FOMC meeting minutes
Aug. 17: Jobless claims; Philadelphia Fed Business Outlook; Leading Index

Aug. 17: 4- and 8-week bills

14 Agu 2023

Catatan

Bullish

14 Agu 2023

Catatan

DXY down
Oil UP
Nasdaq,Dow,RTY AND Tech bullish
Source: The Federal Reserve Bank of New York’s Center for Microeconomic Data
Consumers’ Inflation Expectations Decline at all Horizons, Expectations about Household Financial Situation Improve
The Federal Reserve Bank of New York’s Center for Microeconomic Data today released the July 2023 Survey of Consumer Expectations, which shows that inflation expectations declined at the short-, medium-, and longer-term horizons. Year-ahead price growth expectations for food, medical care, and rent declined to their lowest levels since at least early 2021. Labor market expectations strengthened, while households’ perceptions about their current financial situations and expectations for the future improved.
The main findings from the July 2023 Survey are:

Inflation

Median inflation expectations declined across all three horizons, falling from 3.8% to 3.5% at the one-year-ahead horizon and from 3.0% to 2.9% at both the three-year and five-year-ahead horizons.The decline at the one-year-ahead horizon was broad based across demographic groups and the July reading is the lowest since April 2021. The survey’s measure of disagreement across respondents (the difference between the 75th and 25th percentile of inflation expectations) decreased at all three horizons.
Median inflation uncertainty—or the uncertainty expressed regarding future inflation outcomes—declined at the one-year-ahead horizon and increased slightly at the three- and five-year-ahead horizons.
Median home price growth expectations decreased from 2.9% in June to 2.8% in July, remaining well above the series 12-month trailing average of 2.0%.
Median year-ahead expected price changes declined for all commodities: by 0.2 percentage point for gas (to 4.5%), 0.1 percentage point for food (to 5.2%), 0.9 percentage point for medical care (to 8.4%), 0.3 percentage point for the cost of a college education (to 8.0%), and 0.4 percentage point for rent (to 9.0%). The current readings for food, medical care, and rent are the lowest since September 2020, November 2020, and January 2021, respectively.
Labor Market

Median one-year-ahead expected earnings growth decreased by 0.2 percentage point to 2.8%. The series has been moving within a narrow range of 2.8% to 3.0% since September 2021.
Mean unemployment expectations—or the mean probability that the U.S. unemployment rate will be higher one year from now—decreased by 1.0 percentage point to 36.7%, the lowest reading since April 2022.
The mean perceived probability of losing one’s job in the next 12 months decreased by 1.1 percentage points to 11.8%. The mean probability of leaving one’s job voluntarily in the next 12 months decreased by 1.9 percentage point, to 17.0%, its lowest reading since March 2021. The decrease in the average quit probability was broad based across demographic groups.
The mean perceived probability of finding a job (if one’s current job was lost) increased from 55.3% in June to 55.8% in July.
Household Finance

Median expected growth in household income was unchanged at 3.2% in July and remains below the series 12-month trailing average of 3.6%.
Median household spending growth expectations increased from 5.2% in June to 5.4% in July, but remains well below its 12-month trailing average of 6.1%.
Perceptions of credit access compared to a year ago and expectations about credit access a year from now were largely unchanged, with a slight deterioration in current perceptions and a slight improvement in year-ahead expectations.
The average perceived probability of missing a minimum debt payment over the next three months decreased by 0.3 percentage point to 11.7% in July.
The median expectation regarding a year-ahead change in taxes (at current income level) remained unchanged at 4.3%.
Median year-ahead expected growth in government debt decreased from 10.0% in June to 9.7% in July.
The mean perceived probability that the average interest rate on saving accounts will be higher in 12 months increased by 1.1 percentage points to 30.9%.
Perceptions about households’ current financial situations improved in July with more respondents reporting being better off than a year ago and fewer respondents reporting being worse off. Similarly, year-ahead expectations improved with fewer respondents expecting to be worse off a year from now and more respondents expecting to be better off. The share expecting to be better off a year from now is the highest since September 2021.
The mean perceived probability that U.S. stock prices will be higher 12 months from now increased by 1.8 percentage points to 37.1%.

Bitcoin started its bullish trend continuation based on buying pressure of the tech industry.

14 Agu 2023

Catatan

Trade open Bullish

1 Sep 2023

Catatan

Absolutely BULLISH!

1 Des 2023

Catatan

Trade open and active

Bitcoin hits highest level since May 2022 to kick off December Bitcoin rallied about 9% in November, with $38,000 proving to be a difficult obstacle to cross. Buyers have repeatedly tried to maintain the price above $38,000, but the bears have held their ground. Historically, December has been a mixed month. Coinglass data shows that in the past five years, Bitcoin rose only in 2020, but the extent of the rise at 46.92% was impressive. The bulls will try to replicate at least a part of that performance this year. Entering into the new year, several analysts are bullish on Bitcoin. The repeated retest of a resistance level tends to weaken it. After several failed attempts, the bulls have kicked the price higher on Dec. 1. This indicates the resumption of the uptrend. The rally above $37,980 completes an ascending triangle pattern. The BTC/USDT pair could next rise to $40,000, which is again likely to act as a formidable resistance. If this level is scaled, the pair may reach the pattern target of $41,160. The rising moving averages and the relative strength index (RSI) above 65 indicate that bulls are in control.

This optimistic view will be invalidated in the near term if the price turns down and dips below the uptrend line. That could invalidate the bullish setup, pulling the price down to the solid support at $34,800. A break below this level will signal that the bears are back in the game.

5 Des 2023

Catatan

Bullish BUY
JOLTS Falling job openings could confirm US labor market is losing steam ISM up

6 Des 2023

Catatan

US100 bullish
US Trade Balance down, Dollar down, shares up, Nasdaq bullish, Profit Target 1 16200 BTCUSD Bullish

6 Des 2023

Catatan

US100 Bullish
CRUDE OIL strong bearish...Further Signals below...
ADP Non-Farm Employment Change far below expectations 103K ,Forecast was 131. The US economy is slowing down, ,good for NQ, as Inflation forecasting down now.Interest rates sentiment is increasing.Bullish sentiment is now above 74% Bearih sentiment below 18.75. NQ COT report(lat Friday shows commercials start to buy NQ). Posible FED Fund cut early next year,Feb/Mach 2024.

Further signals: Crude Oil WTI,.... Bearih short, Gold Bullish, BTCUSD Bullish, EURUSD Bullih, GBPUD BULLISH, USDJPY bearih, EURJPY bearish, GBPJPY bearih, DAX40(Germany40) bullish, EU50 bullih, Dow Jones Bullish; US Dollar down bearish, RTY bullish, Coffee Arabica Bullish, Palladium Bearish, Platinum bullish, Ethereum UD Bullish

6 Des 2023

Catatan

US100 Strong bullih now 245min. TF beginning to pump
16050, 16182,16200,16250 next If breaing that level we will see soon ALL TIME High of Nadaq 2021. 16775 after that, and then 17000 ..not necesarily today, as tomorrow and on Friday further Inflation data. the Bias is bullish.. but at the end of this week or until the end of 2023..(unles the economy continues to cool down). Other catalysts lie sudden middle east war, could stop the bullish trend and revere it..But currently Israel starts the diplomatic talks, thats good for U shares and Nasdaq

7 Des 2023

Catatan

short ratio increaing, trend bullish US100 bullish
But dont buy yet.WAIT!!! The uptrend will revere again.
Unemployment Claims unchanged, but Job cuts increase, Inflation down. currently 30 min. trend is down, wait to change the 30 min. trend bullish, and then buy the weekly support at 15747-15800. Today is no trend day, meaning we buy, and set profit targets. Bonds high,but US Dollar down, We posibly go down to upport and sideways, as the market waiting for tomorrows important Non-Farm Employment Change

8 Des 2023

Catatan

5D and 3D Trend are bearish, but all other trend bullish. Wait for trend change on 3D and 5D TF to buy more BTCUSD. Trend is absolutely strong bullish

TREND BULLISH (All trend Daily to 52W, 18 Trends are strongly Bullish) .If some lower TF (e.i. D,2D,3D,5D get bearish, it will be oppurtunity to take ONLY!!!! Bullih Trades.In this cae we only trade long, but set Profit targets!Once PT ha reached, we just wait for another bullish Buy trade. We avoide 100%-ly taking hort trades in this phae of the market, as the strong bullish power will retrace fast,or selling trade will end in low volatile sideways shift).

IMPORTANT US DATA ARE:
Federal Funds Rate VERY IMPORTANT FED MEETING NEXT WEDNESDAY Dec.13th 2023
Current FED rates at 5.25/5.5
Estimation no rate hikes : 97,7%
Estimation rate-cuts(easing) :2,3%

FRIDAY DATA 8th Dec: Very important

-Non-Farm Employment Change if unchanged or below etimates ,good for Nasdaq,Gold,BTCUSD and all markets against US Dollar
-Unemployment Rate: If greater than forecast good for Nasdaq,Gold,BTCUSD and all markets against US Dollar
-Average Hourly Earnings m/m if less than forecast, good for Nasdaq,Gold,BTCUSD and all markets against US Dollar
-Prelim UoM Consumer Sentiment and Prelim UoM Inflation Expectations:If less than expected, good for Nasdaq,Gold,BTCUSD and all markets against US Dollar

Technical Bullish Signals: Gold broke above important Reistance 2084, but could not held above. Trend is bullish. My Buy signals and Long trades are active

Important bullish supports to buy again are:
15750,15658,15628,,15800,15850 above16905

Targets
16050
16125
16202
16250
16358
16407
16442
16609
16678
16723
16814
If Fundamentals change,and the sentiment starts to get bearih, and 52W Bullish Trend change to ,,Sell-Off,,We will liquidate all Bullih poitions and will immediately ell Nasdaq. Also USDollar and Bonds trend change will influence our decisions.

8 Des 2023

Catatan

Strong US Job Growth Seen in November as Strikes End; Trend Slowing
Also detailled explanation of todays trading on my live stream
US100 Nasdaq Non-Farm Payroll 8th DEC 2023
tradingview.com/streams/k4EtkecpNk/
Inter- and Intra market divergence.... Mixed data(so we are waiting to catch the bet potential price. Patience is key.
U.S. job growth likely picked up in November as thousands of automobile workers and actors returned after strikes, but the underlying trend will probably point to a cooling labor market.

12 Des 2023

Catatan

Strong Bullish

FOMC MEETING
on 13th Dec 2023
99% Probability of ,,NO RATE HIKE,,

That is boosting Gold, Shares and Nasdaq
Current US Dollar recovery is caused by Profit Taking

Bitcon profit taking phase

12 Des 2023

Catatan

Long Term Bullish
Short Term Trend Bearish
signal 42666
41444
First Potential support 31108 37532 36828 36816

13 Des 2023

Catatan

FED FUNDS RATES UNCHANGED
bullish
we added positions

13 Des 2023

Catatan

I am BULLISH strongly on this pair now, and will update if, based on my trading systems, trend reversals, position reducing, take profits, or trend change happens

13 Des 2023

Catatan

Fed Pivot Toward Interest Rate Cuts in 2024 and Gold’s Bullish Response

The Federal Reserve concluded its last FOMC meeting of the year, and as expected, they kept their benchmark interest rate unchanged.
Seventeen voting members are all predicting interest rate cuts next year, with five officials projecting a decrease of ¾%, five officials anticipating a larger rate cut than ¾%, and the remaining two voting members anticipating no rate cuts next year. According to their economic projections, the Fed believes core inflation will peak at 2.4% next year, which is lower than its projections in September of 2.6%.
The Federal Reserve is also projecting inflation will cool to 2.2% in 2025 and 2.0% in 2026. Their projections anticipate unemployment rising to 4.1% in 2024 and remaining at that level through 2026. The Fed also anticipates an economic deceleration forecasting growth at 1.4% next year, and rising to 1.8% in 2025 and 1.9% in 2026

14 Des 2023

Catatan

Treasury yields hit lowest since August, fueling market optimism

U.S. stock futures climb as Fed hints at 2024 rate cuts; Dow hits all-time high.
Fed Open Market Committee keeps rates steady; markets react positively to dovish outlook.
Post-Fed, Treasury yields drop to lowest since August, signaling economic optimism.

U.S. stock futures experienced a significant uplift Wednesday night, following the Federal Reserve’s indication of possible rate cuts in 2024.

US DOLLAR DOWN YIELDS DOWN ASSETS vs Dollar UP

Federal Reserve’s Rate Cut Signal
The Federal Open Market Committee maintained interest rates between 5.25% and 5.5%, aligning with market expectations. However, the revelation of potential rate cuts in 2024 spurred a positive shift in market sentiment. The Fed’s decision, signifying the potential end of a cycle that included 11 rate hikes, has been viewed as a pivot towards a softer monetary policy approach


Impact on Treasury Yields
The Fed’s announcement influenced Treasury yields, with the 10-year note hitting its lowest since August. The dovish outlook implies further cuts through 2025 and 2026, potentially lowering the fed funds rate to 2%-2.25%. This forecast aligns with a brighter inflation outlook, as indicated by recent consumer and wholesale price data

Solar Stocks Respond Positively
The Invesco Solar ETF (TAN) saw a significant increase, with constituent stocks like Enphase Energy, SolarEdge Technologies, and Sunrun recording notable gains. This uptrend reflects the solar industry’s sensitivity to interest rates, as lower rates could reduce financing costs and improve valuations.

18 Des 2023

Catatan

Short term trend short. I hedged my longs now at 40860, and am expecting 32933
In case the hort trend change, I will excute the hedge

20 Des 2023

Catatan

Took profit my short hedgeat42738
Long again 42736

21 Des 2023

Catatan

STILL LONG
TARGET 48236

21 Des 2023

Catatan

The January launch of a bitcoin [BTC] spot exchange-traded fund (ETF) is expected to face subdued demand initially, which could lead to a 'sell the news' scenario, Singapore-based QCP Capital wrote in a recent note. This could result in short-term volatility for bitcoin, which will shift the focus towards ether [ETH].
"It is likely that the actual demand for the bitcoin spot ETF at the start will fall short of market expectations," QCP wrote. "We expect topside resistance for bitcoin in the 45k-48.5k region and a possible retracement to 36k levels before the uptrend resumes."
Bitcoin is currently trading above $43,700 during Asia business hours, up 2% on-day.
QCP writes that ether is seen as a potential secondary investment option with an anticipated market shift from bitcoin, and speculative interest in a forthcoming ether spot ETF could drive ether prices higher, even before the ETF's actual launch.
"Ether might also be an interesting laggard play here," they wrote. "This kind of headline excitement could create some speculative uplift for ETH price whether it is warranted or not."
CoinDesk reported that BlackRock (BLK), Nasdaq (NDAQ), and the Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC) held their second meeting in a month to discuss rule changes for listing the bitcoin ETF, with BlackRock modifying its proposal to include cash redemptions, aligning with SEC preferences.
Grayscale also recently had a second meeting with the SEC.
Bitcoin is up 17% in the last month, according to CoinDesk Indicies data, as anticipation builds around the ETF.

27 Des 2023

Catatan

Bitcoin - a break above 44.7k brings 48.2k resistance into play.
Solana – outperformance continues
The multi-week Bitcoin rally remains intact and is pushing the largest cryptocurrency by market cap to levels last seen in April last year. The spot Bitcoin narrative remains the main driver of positive sentiment, while the technical Bitcoin halving event, expected in mid-April, is supporting the push higher. A decision by the SEC on multiple spot Bitcoin ETF applications is expected by early January and a positive decision is currently seen as the most likely outcome. Bitcoin traders are actively watching any SEC announcement at the moment and, it seems, buying Bitcoin ahead of the decision.

The technical outlook for BTC/USD is positive with the weekly chart showing a bullish flag formation being formed, while a bullish 50-day/200-day gold-cross is close to being made. The CCI indicator shows BTC/USD as overbought, suggesting a period of consolidation before any move higher. On the weekly chart there is little in the way of resistance ahead of 48.2k. Support is seen at 40k and a fraction under 38k.

2 Jan

Catatan

Bitcoin climbs above $45,000 for first time since April 2022

Bitcoin touched a 21-month peak of $45,488, having gained 154% last year in the strongest performance since 2020. It was last up 2.6% at $45,344 but remains far off the record high of $69,000 it touched in November 2021.

Ether, the coin linked to the ethereum blockchain network, was 1% higher at $2,376 on Tuesday.

Investor focus has been squarely on whether the U.S. securities regulator will soon approve a spot bitcoin ETF, which would throw open the bitcoin market to millions more investors.

The U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission has rejected multiple applications to launch spot bitcoin ETFs in recent years, arguing that the cryptocurrency market is vulnerable to manipulation.

In recent months, however, there have been increasing signs that regulators are prepared to sign off on at least some of the 13 proposed spot bitcoin ETFs, with expectations that the decision will likely come in early January.

Rising bets that major central banks will cut interest rates this year has also been a boon for cryptocurrencies, helping shake off the gloom that had settled over crypto markets following the collapse of FTX and other crypto-business failures in 2022.

4 Jan

Catatan

Daily Global Market Update
The Euro-Dollar pair experienced a slight decline in the last session, dropping by 0.2%. The Stochastic RSI indicates that we are currently in an oversold market condition.
Dollar-Yen Pair's Gains
The Dollar-Yen pair saw an increase of 0.7% in the last session. The RSI is currently giving a positive signal, suggesting potential continued upward movement.
Gold's Decline
Gold fell by 0.8% against the dollar in the last trading session. The CCI is currently giving a negative signal, hinting at a potential continued downtrend.

Global Financial Headlines
The US dollar has risen, bolstered by high US Treasury yields and a cautious market sentiment affecting Wall Street. Traders are now awaiting further economic data. Job openings in the US saw a decrease to their lowest level since March 2021, indicating a cooling job market. European markets have also experienced a sharp decline, with various sectors showing mixed performances.


Upcoming Economic Highlights
Key economic events to watch out for include the US ADP Employment Change, Initial Jobless Claims, Germany's Harmonized Index of Consumer Prices, and Japan's Jibun Bank Manufacturing PMI, among others. These data points are crucial for investors and traders to watch as they provide insights into the economic health of these countries.

US ADP Employment Change - 1315 GMT
US Initial Jobless Claims - 1330 GMT
Germany's Harmonized Index of Consumer Prices - 1300 hours GMT
Spain's 30y Bond Auction - 0940 GMT
Japan's Jibun Bank Manufacturing PMI - 0030 GMT
Japan's Monetary Base - 2350 GMT

7 Jan

Catatan

Added Longs @43899

BTC going to beak High of Friday, possible resistance high of thurseday last week ,if breaking 45425

7 Jan

Catatan

added longs at 43899 and 44079.Possible resitance at HighofThurseday 44611, if breaking it can go to 45432.But...I am trend follower, so if Pullbacks I use to add more longs.If you are Daytrader,maybe your strategy is different than mine(For example whenI buy breakouts, you may use those level as Short selling points,etc.)pLEASE KEEP THIS ON mind.I just document my own trades, but no recommandation others to take the same trade like me. Thank you

7 Jan

Catatan

added longs at 43899 and 44079.Possible resitance at HighofThurseday 44611, if breaking it can go to 45432.But...I am trend follower, so if Pullbacks I use to add more longs.If you are Daytrader,maybe your strategy is different than mine(For example whenI buy breakouts, you may use those level as Short selling points,etc.)pLEASE KEEP THIS ON mind.I just document my own trades, but no recommandation others to take the same trade like me. Thank you

7 Jan

Catatan

ok. now I added morelongs, at 44132.This trade is no recommandation or advise.
Use always stops.(My targets to react (Not Profit taking)) are the same 44661, and if that break breaks, 45441.

8 Jan

Catatan

still bullish
no more adds. Waiting for new signals

9 Jan

Catatan

Higher highs higher lows trend bullish

29 Jan

Catatan

New buy signal I continue being long

31 Jan

Catatan

Bitcoin bulls back in town after weekly breakout

Trend bullish,and I stay bullish. No new Buys,ut trailed my stops.looking forward to face new hiher highs

7 Feb

Catatan

Bitcoin Price Reclaims 100 SMA But Bulls Clear This Hurdle I stay bullish and amstil long

10 Feb

Catatan

I stay bullish no atter what; It will rise higher