BTC rally weak. DANGER AHEAD. Read My BIG PICTURE going ahead

In my last post I said BTC at best can reach the 46700 to 49700 green zone where the Pitchfork median (yellow eclipse) is located BUT will still be rejected down. However BTC fails even to hold the red 42k to 43500 zone that it broke thru 2x last week. Worse, it did not even broke thru the very thin Ichimuko cloud & turned down yesterday with a big red candle breaking below dma20 line & upper BB begins to turn downward.
At this moment BTC is exactly at the base of the small up channel at the edge of cloud with a small green candle. If this level 40900 does not hold, BTC is going down to 38800 zone or worst case the 34k zone next week,
THE BIGGER PICTURE: I think after BTC broke below the blue uptrending line started from Oct2020, it just went back to retest it last Feb 10 but was rejected down. The upchannel from 33k was accompanied by decreasing volume which shows the rally has weak conviction. It has to AT LEAST get above CLOUD & the red zone AND make a HIGHER HIGH (we had a higher low) for me to turn bullish in the short & medium term.
Not trading advice. Pls trade cautiously. May the market be with you always!
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