BTCUSD: Volume, MAs, Ichimoku and BB look Grizzly
Diupdate
TL:DR
I threw Everything but the kitchen sink and its all bearish.
Analysis
A lot is is explained on the main chart. The On Balance volume Situation with the EMAS is particularly telling. Having the 20 period cross the 100 is a key event that suggest a lot of persistent recent selling and that situation means bearish moves are more likely and will be more impulsive when they do occur. This suggest more likely than not the price actin will slip the 100 SMA, and then the 20SMA will cross the 100 bearishly as well. From there a chance at a technical bounce at the 200. Looking at the history we can get some pretty severe wicks through.
For those that like the EMA ribbon and are hoping to see it as support the On Balance Volume situation means that we are likely to see the ribbon, which is thin to begin with, fail as support as well.
s3.tradingview.com/snapshots/c/C6919QsQ.png
For a bit wider view here is the 3 day chart where I have highlighted a different bearish volume scenario. The 10 period OBV EMA is now acting as resistance. Likewise, price action has gotten narrow enough that we are on the verge of a T-K cross on the cloud.
s3.tradingview.com/snapshots/s/SUA2v9jO.png
Here is the same 3 day chart with OBV and EMA but with the weekly bollinger band in blue and the monthly in green. This volume situation makes being long outside the monthly bollinger band every risky. In very bullish scenarios the top of the monthly BB can act as support but we can see that the top weekly BB is beginning to round off which is not that bullish.
We can also see price action is tightening in a way that predicts further downside. The price action was very expansive as evidenced by how the bottom of the BB falls out the chart and now as price action constricts the BB snugs up.
Final thoughts
A look at the chart and the history does allow for price action to go higher once the 200D SMA is tested as support. Clearly that is a possibility. But for people tracking inflation wearer experiencing an explosion in the price of food and energy. I am not going to chart you to death, but look up the prices of oil, rice, pork, cattle, etc. All going up. It is going to be hard to hold on to an intangible trustless payment system token when your loved ones need a meal.
I threw Everything but the kitchen sink and its all bearish.
Analysis
A lot is is explained on the main chart. The On Balance volume Situation with the EMAS is particularly telling. Having the 20 period cross the 100 is a key event that suggest a lot of persistent recent selling and that situation means bearish moves are more likely and will be more impulsive when they do occur. This suggest more likely than not the price actin will slip the 100 SMA, and then the 20SMA will cross the 100 bearishly as well. From there a chance at a technical bounce at the 200. Looking at the history we can get some pretty severe wicks through.
For those that like the EMA ribbon and are hoping to see it as support the On Balance Volume situation means that we are likely to see the ribbon, which is thin to begin with, fail as support as well.
s3.tradingview.com/snapshots/c/C6919QsQ.png
For a bit wider view here is the 3 day chart where I have highlighted a different bearish volume scenario. The 10 period OBV EMA is now acting as resistance. Likewise, price action has gotten narrow enough that we are on the verge of a T-K cross on the cloud.
s3.tradingview.com/snapshots/s/SUA2v9jO.png
Here is the same 3 day chart with OBV and EMA but with the weekly bollinger band in blue and the monthly in green. This volume situation makes being long outside the monthly bollinger band every risky. In very bullish scenarios the top of the monthly BB can act as support but we can see that the top weekly BB is beginning to round off which is not that bullish.
We can also see price action is tightening in a way that predicts further downside. The price action was very expansive as evidenced by how the bottom of the BB falls out the chart and now as price action constricts the BB snugs up.
Final thoughts
A look at the chart and the history does allow for price action to go higher once the 200D SMA is tested as support. Clearly that is a possibility. But for people tracking inflation wearer experiencing an explosion in the price of food and energy. I am not going to chart you to death, but look up the prices of oil, rice, pork, cattle, etc. All going up. It is going to be hard to hold on to an intangible trustless payment system token when your loved ones need a meal.
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