BTC Bear market will end between May and Oct 2019

13 Mar 2019

There is a clear pattern on log scale that the bear market will end in late May at a price of $2800. The graph shows that the dotted line continues to fall until the point it reaches the long term trendline going upwards. On the other hand, the same analysis has been done on a linear scale and shows that the Bear market will end in October 2019 at a price of $3000.

My conclusion is that the bear market will end between May and October at a bottom price of $2800-$3000.

Compared with the bear market in 2015 there are many similarities. An import similarity is that the bear market started 9 months before the halvening event in 2016. At current time this would be translated to August 2019. This would be a price of bitcoin just below $3000.

However, some analysts such as Tone Vays and Tyler Jenkins predicted the bitcon price would fall to a $1000-$1500 range. Tyler for example used a different method to analyse and he used hyperwave.

A good strategy would be to apply DCA in combination of price levels. If you have a bag of 10k available to invest in bitcoin this year I would invest it as follow, starting from 1st of April:

Every first of the month - invest $500 (apr-dec = $4500)

In combination with:

At a price level of $3000 - invest $1500
At a price level of $2500 - invest $1000
At a price level of $2000 - invest $1000
At a price level of $1500 - invest $1000
At a price level of $1000 - invest $1000

And for the rest, just HODL! ;)