Hmm SPX vs BTC
Over the last years percentage basis, there is an interesting correlation. Detailed below. (And yes, similar numbers on the YTD, just a bit cleaner to look at this way).
1 - Last time we had a dislocation of this level on a percentage basis, it was late July 2021... The result? When it did turn around, it did so with a vengeance.
2 - At peak dislocation of 23%, the following eight days recorded the following performances: SPX +4% / BTC +34.5%.
3 - We are currently at ~20% dislocation... and have been negative for almost two months straight. (Historical feat).
What I expect to see from this is a hard outperformance from BTC and cryptos relative to SPX when Mr. Market decides to give the Bears a break from their dominance. Wouldn't be surprised to see an ~8:1 ourperformance for BTCvsSPX similar to last time here. So a +3% SPX, I would expect to see something like ~+24% BTC.
Is it this week? Next? Not sure, but I am done looking for shorts for now.
Edu only!
1 - Last time we had a dislocation of this level on a percentage basis, it was late July 2021... The result? When it did turn around, it did so with a vengeance.
2 - At peak dislocation of 23%, the following eight days recorded the following performances: SPX +4% / BTC +34.5%.
3 - We are currently at ~20% dislocation... and have been negative for almost two months straight. (Historical feat).
What I expect to see from this is a hard outperformance from BTC and cryptos relative to SPX when Mr. Market decides to give the Bears a break from their dominance. Wouldn't be surprised to see an ~8:1 ourperformance for BTCvsSPX similar to last time here. So a +3% SPX, I would expect to see something like ~+24% BTC.
Is it this week? Next? Not sure, but I am done looking for shorts for now.
Edu only!
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