Up Down Left Right. Which Right Shoulder?
Diupdate
Just thought I would post an interesting state of the market, since we see a rare case of inverse head & shoulder vs head & shoulder. In which, the market is trying to compete for the right shoulder.
My personal interpretation is that the market is keen to do a recovery from 6k and we are seeing alot of excited buyers. But it is having a hard time trying to find the money to do so, and am slowly running out of steam. Whether a valid pattern or not, the appearance of the H&S is a sign of losing momentum. There are couple of reasons for this lost of momentum but the strongest reasons is that there are a lot resistance above so this is very different from 2017 where there was nothing above. When there is no resistance, you can make all kinds of prediction. $100,000, $200,000, $300,000 or whatever pleases you, and the market will buy the hot potato to whatever their intended target is. But now in the recovery phase, we need alot alot of money to really buy out the resistance above and the lack in volume is not a good sign of buying confidence.
Still buyers are being stubborn, so I could be wrong. Maybe the confidence is in, we are just taking a very slow approach. Some upside is that price has constantly made a higher low despite the increased selling, so that tells us that buyers are actually holding and maybe absorbing the dip. But in order for them to continue holding, there needs to be a catalyst that would give us the much needed volume surge and maybe that is what they are waiting on. If that's the case then we will likely go extended sideways, hunting stop loss between $8000 and $8600. This will skew both the H&S patterns out of shape.
Until then, I'm still leaning on the bear side and betting on the H&S right shoulder to form downwards in the next major sell off.
My personal interpretation is that the market is keen to do a recovery from 6k and we are seeing alot of excited buyers. But it is having a hard time trying to find the money to do so, and am slowly running out of steam. Whether a valid pattern or not, the appearance of the H&S is a sign of losing momentum. There are couple of reasons for this lost of momentum but the strongest reasons is that there are a lot resistance above so this is very different from 2017 where there was nothing above. When there is no resistance, you can make all kinds of prediction. $100,000, $200,000, $300,000 or whatever pleases you, and the market will buy the hot potato to whatever their intended target is. But now in the recovery phase, we need alot alot of money to really buy out the resistance above and the lack in volume is not a good sign of buying confidence.
Still buyers are being stubborn, so I could be wrong. Maybe the confidence is in, we are just taking a very slow approach. Some upside is that price has constantly made a higher low despite the increased selling, so that tells us that buyers are actually holding and maybe absorbing the dip. But in order for them to continue holding, there needs to be a catalyst that would give us the much needed volume surge and maybe that is what they are waiting on. If that's the case then we will likely go extended sideways, hunting stop loss between $8000 and $8600. This will skew both the H&S patterns out of shape.
Until then, I'm still leaning on the bear side and betting on the H&S right shoulder to form downwards in the next major sell off.
Catatan
The inverse H&S completed when it touched 9k but instead of breaking through with volume and getting supported on the neckline, it fell through and hidden bearish divergence are starting to show up the 4H and Daily. Lower time frame still shows hope for bulls but not looking too hot. Now to see how the market react, and whether is truly is going to push towards 12k for the moon target. Or 2.5k, the earth target.
s3.amazonaws.com/tradingview/snapshots/p/P33v1jnN.png
Catatan
The short term momentum is shifting towards bearish now, just waiting on a confirmation when 8600 and 8400 breaks. Once that two break, I am expecting selling pressure to accelerate downwards. If we don't touch 9k again then expect a much stronger selling pressure.
Catatan
Bulls still fighting hard for $8400, we are seeing some small bounces but shorts are beginning to pile up fast. I see in pp lTA that they always like to see history repeating themselves, so I thought I would add one too!s3.amazonaws.com/tradingview/snapshots/j/J8gG05an.png
Catatan
Very unpredictable moves from BTC, frankly I am unclear if I read the market wrongly or its just masterful play from the chess master. But BTC continues to move upwards against bearish momentum over and over again.The Stoch RSI on the daily is now in overbought region, but its unclear if that is indicating bull strength or bearish incoming. Nonetheless, a downtick is waiting to happen. BTC is currently at 9.7k and this will be interesting to see how things play out near the 10k resistance.
s3.amazonaws.com/tradingview/snapshots/s/SrDocD5z.png
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