Is 2017 Repeating Itself?

9 Jul 2019

There's nothing fancy here, just a basic fractal between 2017 and 2019. So far we have similar size rallies taking place over similar length time frames.

We have what appears to be an A leg of similar length to the A leg of June 2017.

We have what appears to be a B leg in progress also similar in length to the B leg of the summer of 2017.

I expect the "B leg" to top out around the $13000-$13,100 area as fear of a double top kicks in thus leading to our eventual C leg.

I expect the C leg to take us down to at least $8200 and more likely down to the $7200 area in close proximity to the 19 week moving average and 61.8 fib levels.

11 Jul 2019

Catatan

As predicted our "B leg" topped out just over $13,000 in the $13200 area.

We now appear to be in the early stages of our larger time frame "C leg."

16 Jul 2019

Catatan

Not much to report. We are well on our way to hitting the "C leg" target of $8300.

And I suspect we'll go further south than that.

18 Jul 2019

Catatan

I'm seeing some fomo in the market now that we've broken above 10k again. Personally I am not a believer. This appears to be nothing more than a dead cat bounce. Unless we break 11k my analysis will remain that we are in the C leg with a target of $8200.

**My last update had a typo and said $8300 but the original analysis was $8200 and remains $8200.

28 Jul 2019

Catatan

After a dead cat bounce to relieve oversold conditions we seem to be steadily marching to a "lower low" on the daily charts.

My stance remains bearish with a minimum target of $8200.

To be clear, I still feel that we will likely see the 61.8 fib down in the $7300 area.

8 Agu 2019

Catatan

We have had a trend reversal taking us all the way to the 12k+ area. At this point I believe this fractal has ran its course, however I remain short for non related reasons.