Breakout or Fakeout - Has Bitcoin Shrugged Off The Bear For Good

3 Mar 2018

Well looks like bitcoin has broken out of its descending trend-channel (red channel), at least for now. I'm still skeptical of btc's long term outlook and still think fundamentally this market is over-priced, but you can't ignore what price is doing right now and technically price has broken-out, albeit on very low volume. In fact the anemic volume should be a concern for the bulls as this recent rally has actually seen volume dropping off, which isn't a good sign. Although this could be the start of a new bullish trend (blue channel), price still has to break the previous resistance at $11,700 to avoid forming a double-top structure and if we can clear that hurdle then heavy resistance waits at the nice round $13000 level.


A look at the daily chart:


Price is looking bullish with that daily close above the descending trendline, but look how low the volume is on that breakout. A legitimate break-out should see volume increase not fall off like that. This recent rally and price structure is encouraging for those that are long this market, but plenty of resistance still awaits up ahead.

3 Mar 2018

Catatan

A lot of people use the logarithmic chart when analyzing bitcoin because price was growing exponentially last year. A log chart is helpful when trying to analyse exponential growth, but price hasn't been growing or declining at an exponential rate since the rise to 20k, in fact price has moved in a linear fashion, so a regular chart will work better for now. For those still looking at a log chart, price is still hasn't broken out of the declining trend channel.