BITCOIN wave analysis

29 Jan 2018

Hi
Here is my BTCUSD wave analysis.
Looks like BTC is performing a big (A)-(B)-(C) correction pattern.
Now btc forms bearish wave (C), which should have a 1-2-3-4-5 structure.
wave 2 is expected to form a-b-c pattern and reach next targets: 12395, 13892 and 16315. (fibo extensions of blue wave a)

After that big fall should unfold. sooner or later.
Target 1734 $ is an 1.618 extension of (A) wave.
Daily RSI 14 is under 50 level.
It's log scale chart.
Wave c should not extend over wave (B) end - 17439 level. it is a stop loss for this structure.

BTC is like Amazon in early 00'.
Amazon shares lost 95% of its peak value after dotcom boom came to its end. Bubble burst
and price droped from 113$ to 5.5$ per share. now its price is 1400 $.
I expect BITCOIN to loss about 90% of its peak value.

2 Feb 2018

Trading ditutup: target tercapai

1st target: 7643$100% extension of wave (A) is reached.
7598 is 61.8% retracement of 0-19891.
price reached 1st target and bounced away, increasing by 18% from today's low.
BTC dropped 32.8% since I posted a short idea on jan29.
price may continue cruising toward 1740 level after forming a reasonable correction pattern.

2 Feb 2018

Catatan

14 Mar 2018

Trade aktif

17 Feb 2019

Catatan

since I posted my idea a year ago, BTCUSD have already lost 72% of its value. BTC lost 85% of its historic maximum value.
initial estimated target was 1734

what next?
price action on the daily chart calls for further upside movement probably to form a complete correction pattern to resume downtrend.

1 hour chart: BTCUSD surged almost 2.2% early today.
market rejected this upward move and BTC rapidly lost 3.2% breaking the crucial support line.

however, price stays above support line, the recent structure is uncertain.
it might be a good R/R opportunity for bulls to enter the market.
but the fact that market rejected this upward price spike should warn us that bulls are weak.
a clear breakout below that support line may trigger a strong sell pressure.

25 Feb 2019

Catatan

BITCOIN weekly overview
BTC formed a 5 wave structure and broke it with highest standard deviation (5) on H4 chart since November 14, 2018.
Price landed on major support line.
clear breakout should confirm a continuation of long-term downtrend.

It's assumed that the recent 5 wave structure has completed wave C in ABC pattern.

27 Feb 2019

Trade aktif

BITCOIN daily overview.
BTCUSD has just broken crucial median line.
it confirms that BTC is not going to continue it's short-term upward movement.

BTC formed a suitable ABC correction pattern to resume its long-term downtrend.
daily chart:

estimated sell target based on recent price action is $1913.
original target was $1734 (Jan 29, 2018)

2 Apr 2019

Catatan

yesterday at night I was looking at BTC and other crypto charts.
I estimated 5100 as reasonable BTC price target.
(red) C = 161.8% of A
(green) c = 161.8% of a.

this final move should have ended (red) A B C correction pattern to resume further downside trend.
Yesterday I was expecting move up. but I did not think 5100 may be reached in 1 hour. (22% surge in less than 1 hour)
pretty aggressive move up.
it raises questions whether short term and mid term uptrend is over or not.
there is no typical divergence or other evidence that current uptrend is dying

30 min chart:

after reaching 5100 btc lost almost 9%. I dont know whether it is minor correction or the beginning of new midterm downtrend. we will see. (anyway, to continue frther uptrend such move should be corrected)
in my opinion, we should wait for clear sell setup.
I am biased to downside scenario.

5 min chart

we have minimum required 38.2% retracement of the most recent 9% fall (from 5100)
it may be a good r/r entry point for short position. (expecialy if this is the continuation of long term downtrend)
act according to ur trading strategy rules.

3 Apr 2019

Trading ditutup secara manual

as u see, there is no sell setup
looks like BTC price is going to break the recent top.

Total crypto market capitalization index have already updated the previous day top.

looks like BTC (and crypto market overall) has been confirming new long term uptrend.
daily volumes of Total crypto market index are at record high. (even higher than in January 2018 at tradingview chart shows)
yesterday BTC was traded at the highest volumes since November 20, 2018.