Bitcoin macro analysis (BTC/USD Index)

25 Jul 2022

Hello how are you?

On the long-term chart BTC follows a bullish channel.
It looks like he is testing the 38% Fibonacci retracement.
I placed the retracement considering the bottom of March 9, 2020 and the top of March 08, 2021.
Why did I consider these dates?
Explanation below.

BTC/USD indexed on Nasdaq

As Nasdaq is strongly correlated with BTC lately,
I analyzed in a separate chart the price of BTC indexed on the NDX.

Also on the same bull channel:



As we can see, we have the last bottom on March 9, 2020 and the last top on March 08, 2021.
Then, tracing the Fibonacci retracement by joining these dates, we saw that the price corrected until the 50% correction
Maybe test again? I don't know.



Fibonacci Channel

Reached -50% retraction.



Stochastic RSI, RSI and 100-month smoothed exponential moving average

On the monthly chart the price is in a theoretically cheap region, rarely seen.
On the RSI, the indicator broke the historic low.
And the stochastic RSI is still pointing down. When it starts to turn upwards it will be a good sign.
Another interesting sign is the 100-month regularized exponential moving average, as circled.



On-chain data

The volume of BTC on the network indicates important points.
In the yellow circles, where we had high volume on the Bitcoin network, this foreshadowed a strong swing in price, both up and down.



The percent of circulating supply that has not moved in at least 1 year

This indicator appears to be reversing downwards, which indicates that the circulating supply that has been idle for at least 1 year is starting to move.
We can see an inverse relationship as shown by the arrows.



Drawdown

In the past there was a drop of 87%, 80% and 82% approximately.
Now we're down 70%.
Have already fixed everything, or will you test that red diagonal channel, correcting 74% or more?



Stable coins dominance (dollar strength in the crypto market)

The dominance of the three main stable coins (USDT, USDC and DAI) has an inverse correlation to BTC.
When it goes up, the price of BTC goes down, and vice versa.
We have a bullish channel on the stable coin dominance chart, and when dominance reaches the top channel, it is usually a great buy signal, as shown in green circles.



Dollar dominance in the traditional market

Tested 50% Fibo retracement.




Hope this helps.