Adam & Eve Double Bottom a la Bulkowski
Diupdate
This idea explores the Adam & Eve double bottom that appears to have formed on BTC. According to Thomas Bulkowski, upon returning to the neckline a bullish breakout target can be calculated by multiplying the price difference between the lowest bottom point and the highest point of the central peak between Adam and Eve by a factor of 0.66
Looking at BTC, Sept 2017 correction provides a good example to test this on and I have marked these levels on the chart. You can see, that in this case the theory did bring us to a local peak, and after a slight correction the trend carried on up. But of course that was a bull market!
Well, apparently A&E double bottoms perform best in bear markets, so... let's take a look!
Firstly you can see that the fractals match very well until March 21 when the price was defeated by the 200 daily moving average. At this point imho the Adam & Eve double bottom idea failed. If you follow the fractals along, you can see that there is a correspondence between dips and peaks, but we are well below the green zone which we should be in already!
So what now? I think (hope? same thing?) that the price will challenge the 200 MA again now. There is probably a good chance it will fail, which would see the price drop first to 8600. But if it does break through I expect a lightning fast movement to 15000 forming a new support at 11000, which imho is unlikely to be broken again.
Bulkowski webpage: thepatternsite.com/aedb.html
Looking at BTC, Sept 2017 correction provides a good example to test this on and I have marked these levels on the chart. You can see, that in this case the theory did bring us to a local peak, and after a slight correction the trend carried on up. But of course that was a bull market!
Well, apparently A&E double bottoms perform best in bear markets, so... let's take a look!
Firstly you can see that the fractals match very well until March 21 when the price was defeated by the 200 daily moving average. At this point imho the Adam & Eve double bottom idea failed. If you follow the fractals along, you can see that there is a correspondence between dips and peaks, but we are well below the green zone which we should be in already!
So what now? I think (hope? same thing?) that the price will challenge the 200 MA again now. There is probably a good chance it will fail, which would see the price drop first to 8600. But if it does break through I expect a lightning fast movement to 15000 forming a new support at 11000, which imho is unlikely to be broken again.
Bulkowski webpage: thepatternsite.com/aedb.html
Catatan
Close up Catatan
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If we go down I look for buy-ins between 9450 and 9550 Catatan
Elliott wave Catatan
Here's a clickable chart, you check the count (might not be right) <deleted>Catatan
Buying Bitcoin at 8900, 8800 and possibly (spike down) 8600.Catatan
Buy order filled at 8980 expecting move to 9400 ish. Still see further downward move afterwards.Catatan
Well it got to 9460 (on Kraken). Trade closed. I expect more downage, see chart. Btw Kraken is the best exchange for crazy over the top spikes Catatan
BTCUSD breaks out of descending wedge, good volume. Massively oversold, 4h RSI lowest since 2016!!! Catatan
This week, in case you don't know, is the most important in the crypto calendar: Consensus 2018 coindesk.com/events/consensus-2018/ This year over 4000 attendees - that's 10x on 2015!Coupled with stupidly low large time frame RSI + zero stochastic means we have potential for a great week. Accident? ;)
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The market is showing some really positive signs right now and I believe we will continue to move up during the week. breaking the horizontal resistance at 8830 is my cue for a bullish move to 9500. Consolidation at that level will see us move up to the 200 ma again.Catatan
Still waiting for my fractal to be denied, as yet going to plan Catatan
Lovely price action, as unpredictable as bitcoin might seem to us all at times, never underestimate its power! I'm holding and not selling BTC or BCH. This is what Fred Smith CEO FedEx speaking today at Consensus 2018 said "...we are so interested in Bitcoin and the Internet of Things, because it's the next frontier that's going to completely change worldwide supply chains..."I don't know what the future holds, but I believe that the infrastructure is being put in place to make Bitcoin the premiere, global cryptocurrency asset. It forms the basis of my bullishness and I accept that the price will swing up and down, but in general the trend is bullish... it's always been bullish.
I'm not a professional trader or even an experienced investor. These are just opinions.
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Gemini just been given official go ahead to expand trading services. They will be adding Bitcoin Cash, ZCash and Litecoin! investing.com/news/cryptocurrency-news/new-york-lets-winklevoss-firm-offer-new-cryptocurrency-services-1445867
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SatoshiLite aka Charlie Lee aka chikun bro tweeted twitter.com/SatoshiLite/status/996058631316627459Catatan
I'm still holding BTC, I think we'll see more of this kind of action. it's very similar to the last 6k bottom - same algos maybe? Also I flipped my alt positions last night to BTC.Catatan
Well, it's a shame we decided to dump rather than breakout. I'm still holding my Bitcoin, I won't sell them of course for a loss - I want to use them to flip alts when the time comes anyway.Still I'm confident that we'll get a higher low. If you press play we are still pretty much doing the Adam & Eve fractal (at least in terms of highs and lows) so I think we'll find the bottom in a day or two. There might even be a bounce in between.
Sometimes people ask me for advice in the pm. I always try my best not to answer :) but all I can say if you're holding and worried - don't be a panic seller! Just take a step back before you make a decision.
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