Bitcoin death cross

1 Jul

In 1 year COIN is up 282% and BTC is up 154%. Now what? Everyone knows there's only 3 possibilities. Up, down or sideways. And since we've been going sideways for about 5 months, I'd say we're getting closer to only 2 options now. Up or down.

If I overlay a back tested strategy based on the cross of 20sma and 100sma, it results in 32 Bitcoin trades since 2015 when BTC was trading at 250. The 32nd trade that just printed was a Bitcoin short, when the 20sma crossed under the 100sma on Thursday 6/27/24.

I'm posting this as a Bitcoin short until I see BTC 20sma cross over it's 100sma.

2 Jul

Catatan

Stochastic on the 8 week candlestick chart:

4 Jul

Catatan

BTC Swing trade idea:
Long = 57k
Stop = 56.5k
Profit = 60k

4 Jul

Catatan

The Mt. Gox trustee holds 142k in BTC and 142k BCH. So as these are distributed in pieces in July it will increase selling pressure on BTC and BCH. Going long for a swing trade is risky. That's why I am planning an entry at 57k, with a tight stop loss 56.5k BTC 5 month low and take profit level with 50% retracement between 3 days ago high 63k and today 57k = 60k.
In theory, all other coins should not have this exogenous selling pressure from Mt. Gox distribution. However, the psychology of the rest of the cryptocurrency market is following Bitcoin anyways. Accurate technical analysis on all other coins besides BTC & BCH, could be another idea to swing trade from.

5 Jul

Catatan

Trying again
Long 53.5k
Stop 53k

6 Jul

Catatan

Take 50% profit at 58k

8 Jul

Catatan

51.7k could be another good support

12 Jul

Catatan

I'm keeping an eye on sma20 crossing under sma200. Since July 5th sma200 has been acting as resistance for BTC. I input sma365 just to get an average price over the course of 1 year. The last time BTC crossed sma365 was a cross over on March 14th 2023 when it was 24k.

sma20 = 60,075
sma100 = 64,850
sma200 = 58,900
sma365 = 46,664

13 Jul

Catatan

BTC 20sma resistance since June 13, 200sma resistance since July 5 & 20sma about to cross under 200sma.

16 Jul

Catatan

Take all profit at 65k. Wait for a pullback.

18 Jul

Catatan

Bitcoin update:
sma20 = 60,005
sma50 = 63,830
sma100 = 64,390
sma200 = 59,655
ATR resistance = 69,775
ATR support = 50,230

5 Agu

Catatan

Long swing trade:
BTC 54k
ETH 2300
SOL 130

5 Agu

Catatan

Global market crash

6 Agu

Catatan

Bitcoin 3 day chart ATR levels:

6 Agu

Catatan

Bitcoin went from 49k yesterday to 57k today. I won't be surprised if it retraces 50% 53k.

7 Agu

Catatan

Local 50% fib retracement is 53,403

8 Agu

Catatan

The bulls took over from yesterday's 54,564 low. And now we're past the 50% retracement from the past 2 weeks high & low. Bitcoin nearly hit .618 level at 61,997.

9 Agu

Catatan

Bitcoin is sitting at it's 2024 fib retracement .618 now: