This is the bottom trend line
Diupdate
I've seen all kinds of bottom trend lines drawn out for the bottom support of the triangle. I am confident about this one. This one lines up with the support/resistance cluster in November last year, and touches perfectly with the Feb and June low points all the way down to the 30 minute chart.
We've been seeing 30 day cycles with trend reversals on the 5th of the month. We saw a teasing of trend reversal on 05/28, 06/06, 06/14, and now 06/28 (not just on BTC but I've seen these dates as possible trend reversal dates on Alts as well). For example I am currently seeing 06/28 as a possible trend reversal date for XVG and GBTC.
If BTC can hold the bottom support line until 06/28 to 07/06, hitting more of a basin phase for a while, I think we could see a trend reversal. The BTC MACD is showing apex in the range of this early July potential trend reversal period. Point D on the chart matches up well with the 08/06 30 day cycle date and the common cluster of support/resistance at 7500 range.
I see this chart as only a possibility. There is of course also the possibility that the trend line busts and it heads down to the 3600 - 4300 USD range. We need to pay close attention, if BTC goes decisively below 6160 in the coming weeks the support will be broken and this triangle with points ABCDE will be invalidated.
We've been seeing 30 day cycles with trend reversals on the 5th of the month. We saw a teasing of trend reversal on 05/28, 06/06, 06/14, and now 06/28 (not just on BTC but I've seen these dates as possible trend reversal dates on Alts as well). For example I am currently seeing 06/28 as a possible trend reversal date for XVG and GBTC.
If BTC can hold the bottom support line until 06/28 to 07/06, hitting more of a basin phase for a while, I think we could see a trend reversal. The BTC MACD is showing apex in the range of this early July potential trend reversal period. Point D on the chart matches up well with the 08/06 30 day cycle date and the common cluster of support/resistance at 7500 range.
I see this chart as only a possibility. There is of course also the possibility that the trend line busts and it heads down to the 3600 - 4300 USD range. We need to pay close attention, if BTC goes decisively below 6160 in the coming weeks the support will be broken and this triangle with points ABCDE will be invalidated.
Catatan
This 1 month 30 minute chart is taken from the Bitfinex BTC/USD chart. The lower light blue trend line is the lower red line of the triangle seen in my primary post of the 1 year Bitstamp chart above. (the upper green trendline is found from the Bitfinex chart). I used the Bitfinex chart to post this sub chart because there is a candlewick for point B on the symmetrical triangle on the Bitfinex chart that helps form a better looking triangle. Elliot waves shows point E up top so it should break downwards out of the triangle. The triangle has potential of a break 515 USD from the apex at 6400 so that puts BTC at 5885 USD. This should form a bullwick event on the lower blue support line and form a basin phase as it weaves up and down over the trendline until June 28'ish. This is my primary count - there are other alternates, one of them is more bullish.
Catatan
We had a C wave breakout (breach seen on the dotted purple line) on the small triangle. It has morphed into a larger triangle; however, the large one is bullish because the E wave finishes on the bottom side. The larger triangle has a potential of 800 USD to the upside from the apex placing BTC at 7254. You can see this is directly in the middle of the cluster of resistance (circled in red).
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