$BTC longer term view. New lows? Or new highs?

5 Jun

If we haven't already topped, I think the upside is limited here. Price is currently at 71k and if we get a move higher, I think price would top out at $ 78k-$ 81k for this cycle.

I see a few different scenarios from here that can play out.
1. Price tests $ 48-52k from here, we rally quickly from there but then roll over and see new lows below where we went in 2022.
2. Price tests $ 48-52k from here, we rally quickly from there and we end up seeing a new high between 78k-81k. Then price falls after that to new lows below the 2022 low.
3. Price blows past the $ 81k resistance and we continue up (less likely in my opinion).

I think all risk markets are heading into a correction phase here and bitcoin won't escape the drawdown IMO.

I think this will end up being "a black swan" event.

Sharing this idea because most don't think this is even a possibility, but to me, it's my base case.

Cautious heading into the back half of the year.

10 Jul

Catatan

Gotta be honest, leaning towards scenario 1 right now.

The more and more I look at the chart on higher timeframes, the more I think we've topped for the cycle.

We're seeing a flat red heikin ashi 1M candle in July. Unless price can take out 65K by the end of the month, probability favors continuation to the downside.

I think it's likely that we'll see a bounce after the bottom gets tagged, but I now think it's unlikely that we see new highs.

17 Jul

Catatan

Welp 65K level broke, flat top red candle now negated. That leaves the possibility open for the 78k resistance to be hit.

Note: I think the rest of the month will be choppy. I could see 67.8k tagged next before another move down either to retest 60k or maybe we even take out the low, then bounce.

I think you'll want to be long into August.

19 Jul

Catatan

Alright got the bounce but I'm now I'm more cautious here. I think we could reject here between 65.7k - 67.8k. I have a hard time seeing price surpassing that region. Should we reject, it could setup a large move lower.

21 Jul

Catatan

And there's the rejection.

23 Jul

Catatan

Holding below 67.8k = more downside, flipping that region as support = upside.

Simple as that.

Getting conflicting signals on LTFs but big picture, my bias remains that we see new lows (or at least retest of 60k) before any sustained bounce higher.

Got our first red heikin ashi candle today which to me means the downtrend is just starting.

I still think we'll get a flush into August and then a bounce into September.

Will update if anything changes.

1 Agu

Catatan

Alright August flush incoming... you've been warned.

1 Agu

Catatan

The trigger would be a move up to 66.7k-67.8k and failure to break that region (like I mentioned before, this is the critical level), which would form a H&S top.

Or a move below 62.5k.

Let's see how it all plays out.

1 Agu

Catatan

Welp look out below...

5 Agu

Catatan

First target hit.