Is the Parabola Broke or Correction to Buy Bitcoin?

15 Jul 2019

Its the question everyone should ask and coming weeks will help us answer. This is my current cycle count in a 55 day cycle average, but since this has been so vertical, I'm still a bit uncertain if its accurate. This correction will help us get more clarity.

We have a parabolic move, a big drop, a recovery to the 79% OTE, then lose all those gains in a few days. We have massive volatility so we are in a dangerous territory. In my last post I talked about the dangers of a break in the parabola and certainly price action is telling us to be careful. But I'm not certain that its broken. It can just be expanding before the next move up.

When markets get like this I get cautious. So I really wasn't doing much of anything since last time we hit 10k other than small day trades. I'm still net short since my last post.

With such a big move up and down in the past week or so, it would be rare to see the $9600 previous low hold.

Bullish Plan: If we do break lower then I want to see volatility calm down and I'd like to see some sideways chop in the $8500-$9000 area. If we get there this week I'll cover short and look to build a long. But will only be to sell a bounce for now. I'll look for another move down and re-evaluate price action when we near a potential cycle low.

Bearish Plan: I don't want to see continued acceleration. Moving down too fast causes a lot of psychological damage and fear. I'm already concerned about the volatility. If we show no signs of support near 9k then I'm just going to hold. I guarantee the volatility has led to a lot of losses. Its a sign of too much leverage. Bears now have control and its a sign that traders control the market not investors. This isn't going to help us get buyers.

Red line: I really prefer not to see the red line broken in coming weeks. That would be a bit too much. There's some support down here so a wick wouldn't bother me. daily closes under this point would be a big concern.

16 Jul 2019

Catatan

I'm looking to flip long in that green area at least for a bounce trade and cover my short positions.

Lots going on here.

1. Weekly open/close
2. SR level
3. Small volume gap on the way up
4. CME gap in that zone
5. 100 DMA
6. 50% fib from bottom.

Lots of potential algos to buy it so think its good for 1K if not test 10k. I'd really like it if we hit that level on Thurs or Friday with a TD8 or TD9 on the daily. Thats enough confluence to make a good risk reward trade.

20 Jul 2019

Catatan

I was able to capture most of the most down short. But I didn't fill long orders at the low. When that happens I wait. I shorted the monthly open at $10700 was stopped out break even overnight.

The price action this morning was very bullish as it looked like algo bots buying it up and now we have a breakout that has held on several hourly closes.

I was day trading the ascending triangle so I have a position I $10650 and now that we have a breakout I plan to hold that at break even. I will no longer go short unless I stop out of my long and we start trading below the monthly open again.

So.. a daily close above 21 DMA and above monthly open is bullish. A strong weekly close is bullish. If we get over this resistance area from 11k to $11400, I look to stack longs on every dip. Even though I'm cautious and generally more bearish, I trade charts and reversing like this in a macro bull market is a bullish. So continuing up opens the door to another leg of the parabola.

And there really isn't much past 14k. Maybe a stop at 16k but I think 20k by end of the year is likely.. Again, this is coming from someone that has been concerned about a parabolic crash. That is not off the table, but its not as likely as long as we hold this monthly open and the 21 DMA. We have a reversal but we need to hold it. To pop up here and lose the momentum would be a failed breakout and I would be even more aggressive to short $10800 area.

This is a CRITICAL area right now for both bulls and bears.

2 Agu 2019

Catatan

We are in a neutral territory now where bitcoin can prove its either ready to ascend higher or will break down.

Oddly enough BTC has followed the 2017 pattern so far with one exception. The last move down near 9k took longer so it could indicate a change of behavior.

If this follows the same pattern as 2017, we would find resistance shy of the last high of $11100 and then make a new low. Often this low is the 38% extension of the last wave. Also tends to be a full .618 retrace both are 7k to $7500 area.

I was originally looking for $8500 to buy but With everyone else ready to buy $8500 and so much time spent at 9k area, a dip to $7300 would really clear out a lot of bullish sentiment and set up a run higher.

The bullish case is clear. We've already captured the 21 and the markets starting to turn. So now its a matter of keeping the momentum. If BTC can shake this trend by busting over $11100, closing over monthly open and forming support then we buck the 2017 trend. I get bullish at that point and target 16k and then 20k.

In the mean time, I'm shorting $10600 and monthly open.

I'm generally

4 Agu 2019

Catatan

I took a few stabs of shorting monthly opens also took a long on a dip. Got stopped out. I was short coming into this morning expect us to go down if we held below $10760 but we moved through that are with volume so I flipped long at $10800. Normally I'd look to short the range high again, but the price behavior looks bullish. The chance to go lower was last night imho.

We still have to clear this resistance zone and get daily closes over. I will be looking to add dips unless I see 4H closes under 10760 and big selling at around 11k.

On the bullish side. The reason I won't short 11k area.

1. Steady buying for the last week. Easily getting past previous resistance
2. Consolidated just below this $10760 area then breaks over.
3. Potential for a high weekly close today. That would get me even more bullish. Not there yet, but close.

Again.. I really want to see price acceptance up here to confirm, but t I'm bullish as long as we stay above $10760. And I look to buy dips for coming months as long as we remain above.

Click the play button and you can see that we are taking the green path I looked for when I originally made this post.

We dipped enough to pick up buyers and if we clear resistance, FOMO will take hold and I think we have the strength to get to 13K and that makes new yearly highs likely and there just isn't much between 14K and 20k. I think 20k acts like a magnet and we get there by end of the year. That's the bullish potential here.

Still... we need to fully clear this 11k area without a big rejection. A high close today would be perfect.

5 Agu 2019

Catatan

Strong weekly close. Tells me no shorting. Getting long. At least expect some continuation at minimum this week but the last 6 times a green weekly covered a red, it was a trend reversal into a bullish continuation.

7 Agu 2019

Catatan

Had a big pullback yesterday and now a major recovery. Had trouble getting a daily close over $11800 so if we get that today that is a good sign of price acceptance.

There is some resistance at $12400, 13K and then the yearlike high near 14K, but I don't find that to be that strong. Usually when you have areas like this where you are revisiting a zone 13K-14K, it forms a triple top. A triple top like this that is only a few months apart has a very high likelihood of breaking. I'm already full bullish with daily closes over $11200 but now think we could see some big moves higher and think 20k acts as a magnet.