Over the weekend, many BTC ETF applicants submitted revised prospectuses to the SEC. Among them, well-known asset management companies such as BlackRock and Fidelity discussed the redemption assets of BTC ETF with the SEC, and finally determined that they would be redeemed in a manner similar to cash. Everything is going on in an orderly manner.
The crypto saw a significant dump on Monday and did not recover the extent of its losses within 24 hours. FOMO gradually weakens. However, there has not been any change in the macro perspective, and the decline is just a correction in pricing. Our research department has reviewed the trend of the history of BTC. In past bull markets, there will be relatively obvious drawdowns, with a magnitude greater than 30%. The largest drawdowns in the bull market that started in 2023 has been 20%, which is smaller than the average.
BTC broke above the given resistance level last week and gave back its gains on Monday this week. Judging from the trading volume, it is not significantly higher than in the past. We still maintain previous resistance level 43000 and support level 38000. From an indicator point of view, the ME indicator maintains the purple wavy area, indicating that BTC continues to maintain a bullish trend. As for the WTA indicator, we mentioned in the last recap that the second round of rise (38000-44000) did not have many blue bars representing whales. This aspect can be compared with the first round of rise (27000-35000) . In this case, the destructive candle appeared on Monday, indicating that the second round of rise has been ended.
Switching to the 4h level, the purple wavy area displayed by the ME indicator gradually narrows. And we can see that there were a lot of whales involved in trading during the decline, but not many whales in the rebound. Most whales cut their profits.
To sum up, we believe that BTC will remain bullish in the long term, but may remain volatile or fall further in the short term.
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