BTCUSD: Potential for another crash from here...

21 Agu 2020

We will know within a couple weeks with more certainty but this level could inflict serious pain on crypto holders.
I'm out of my long positions and mostly lending since we broke down after failing to break out above resistance a few days ago.
I suspect the stock market is about to stage yet another COVID crash, accompanied by other asset classes also falling, so I trimmed all my positions and started positioning myself in bearish bets across the board, gradually. Given the actions of central banks throughout the world, I chose to adjust the price to the money supply of the dollar to get a better idea of what price is for BITCOIN now. This puts it back at levels from where we crashed a few times already.

As an extra, CME positioning starts to turn bearish as well, similarly to past tops. Sentiment has gotten overboard with altcoins being pumped left and right by yield farmers buying them at centralized exchanges when viable, and also decreased the crypto balances at exchanges dramatically, causing dramatic moves due to reduced liquidity.

Full confirmation of this scenario would come with a rapid decline from this area by the end of August, by then, odds of this scenario taking place will increase dramatically.
Best of luck, stay safe.

Ivan Labrie.

21 Agu 2020

Catatan

24 Agu 2020

Catatan

Since #SPX clearly isn't yet at the very top yet, #BTC isn't falling past the support level it hit in the short term but it's also still below resistance. It might go sideways until the stock market his the top and starts falling. Gold already peaked and #BTC probably too. (Not looking like a buy at all, unless you look at the 2 month timeframe which has failed right after triggering bullish signals already, the last fail was the COVID top.)

25 Agu 2020

Catatan

31 Agu 2020

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Bears failed to gain traction, suggests the top might not be in...also stocks look poised for further upside into EOY. I'm mostly flat in crypto, lending with most of my crypto capital but I do reserve a small portion for speculative positioning, in case we confirm a bullish signal here soon.

Sharp downside would bring us back to the bear case. For now, this is not behaving in that way yet.

1 Sep 2020

Catatan

There is a problem with the current rally, the 2019 rally, had a similar signal where a weekly down trend ended and a rally ensued after...The target for that rally was very close to the 2019 top, and time for the rally ended after the top, meaning the rally was way faster and stronger than now.

This is the behavior you see in a corrective sideways structure, ergo, a very large triangle of some sort, or complex correction since the 2017 top.
Odds of breaking into new highs are slim, and this behavior further confirms this notion.

3 Sep 2020

Trade aktif

The down trend in the M2 adjusted chart is now confirmed.

6 Sep 2020

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I suspect the stock market drop was a bear trap before more upside still, so crypto having peaked is less probable. Most crypto analysts turned pessimistic and either want to buy much lower or think we are crashing.
People who were invested were not saying much but yesterday many felt terrible about the drop, and wanted to sell. Contrarian signal possibly.



I will put this idea on hold for now and risk buying here with a relatively tight stop.

8 Sep 2020

Trade aktif

We might get a rebound to reshort, but it's not looking safe to go long.



The 20 periods SMA crowd seem to be supporting it, similarly to what happened in February when price tested it and held there for one week before collapsing below.

I'd suggest to not hold any BTC, and if we get a rebound, look for shorts.