Didn't get the memo... Only whales get to short this market.

12 Apr 2018

This is for an educational review looking at trends in BTC. My sub wave count (smaller time frame 1-2-3-4-5 of c = 2 where 7500 marks start of wave 1) was invalidated, but the general trend is still very valid. Unfortunately, I won't get an A on the exam, that is ok. I had an alternate count with a higher C that and was feeling 60/40 on this, so I stayed away from any trades. What I missed: If you look at the BTC short chart, the drop size = that of 2-2-18. So don't get too confident yet. Until we break above 9-9500, we can't call this anything other than what it most likely was... Smart money taking easy money.

I've learned to discount "fundamentals" as a leading indicator, but using contrarian POV to that is helpful. As soon as this pop happened, a lot of heroes came out saying they called it and that we are now going bull. Additionally, the number of retail shorts was at an ATH and only whales get to short the market for big moves. Just like in early Feb, shorts dropped significantly before a larger wave drop occurred, meaning all the tight (low margin) retail shorts got stopped out, the whales took their money and then went on to short and take all the money of the heroes who were calling "bull."

But, this C wave still has room to grow, but a short position now is getting less risky as we approach higher time frame resistance levels. This is a big boys game... what I mean by that is the volume compared to stocks is still less and for retail traders it is vs. the whales. In stocks, whales might fight whales. Notice that the key fib of a C leg was perfectly hit though. This move becomes more bearish also because in simply increases the velocity to the downside. I wouldn't be shocked if we go below $4500. Good news, when looking at patterns from our last bear market, this could be the final sell down before accumulation begins as the counts are very similar. The difference is everything is happening 3x faster this time.

I won't get bullish until we see sideways accumulation with supporting volume. Random green candles like this are something all together different. Don't think for a second a bunch of retail investors jumped on Coinbase and moved the price 1K in an hour. Retailers jumped on and started buying at the high. Could they get lucky and the price continue higher, sure. But wait, what about all these big whales getting in? They trade OTC and their news (interesting timed with this impulse up) looks like a setup to me and if I'm wrong, I won't mind missing a 10% move because the downside risk right now is 40-50% at this level. Also, on the BTC short chart, there is a huge gap now... gaps typically fill, don't they??? Cheers

Also, if you think I'm wrong, great... please tell me why. I am here to learn and get feedback.

M

This is not financial advice, I'm simply a student submitting work for a teacher.