Hey!
Exactly a year ago - 17.12.2017 - Bitcoin made all-time high, good old times! :)
Back into the reality and here is the short-term BTC price update.
Currently, the price makes a breakout from two chart patterns:
1. First one is the bigger and it is more known as a bullish pattern "Falling wedge" (black trendline), formed since 6. December. Since yesterday, the price is drifted on the Wedge upper trendline and now we are making the breakout. It is usually as a continuation pattern but currently no, it works just as a bullish pattern if we can make a breakout upwards. As I said, we are drifting on the edge and slightly above of it, so this hour or the next will confirm completely the breakout from the pattern.
2. The second one is smaller and we can call it a "Bull Flag". The pattern started to form the bottom and this slight drifting on the Falling Wedge upper trendline creates a flag. Bull flag is a well-known continuation pattern and the target after the breakout will be confirmed is $3,312 (the first strong area).
Yes, we have a slight breakout from the Falling wedge but we don't have a breakout from the smaller pattern Bull Flag. The breakout from both patterns is confirmed after the candle close (at least 1H) above the $3,220 - the blue line just above the current price. This is a very strong price level and if we want to see bullish BTC price then the first level which has to break is this. It was before strong support and now it acts as a strong resistance. We have tested this couple of times - one quick rejection and now slight move down. Usually, this slightly down and if the price stops in the strong are it means that we might see a breakout, not the rejection (downwards from the current price level). Great and strong areas are touched only once or twice and "never" look back after that.
If we get a breakout from both patterns and we get a candle close above the $3,220, then the short-term momentum EMA's make the golden cross and this is a small confirmation that we might see a continuation move up to the $3,312 or even $3,410.
REMEMBER - this scenario is active ONLY then when we get a candle close (at least 1H) above the $3,220! Only then we have some breakout confirmations! Just a small bullish pattern Double Bottom is on the $3,125 but as You've been noticed, those patterns are failed lately almost every single time!
The bearish scenario steps into play when the price falls down into the Falling wedge and it would be confirmed after the break below the $3,100. If we start to fall downwards then I think this $3,000 doesn't hold us. The only case is then when we make a quick 3k touch as a small V shape but this V shape has to be very quick - $3,000 and immediate rejection up. Currently, we slowly fall lower and if we fall as slow as currently, then this level doesn't work because the $3,000 is so well known level and almost every chartist on the TradingView mention this level. Usually, the well-known levels don't hold the price and the stops below the price get hunted.
Some patterns shows that the price may find a support around $2,400-$2,500. So, be careful if I start to call out some bearish signs on the update section.
As usually, I try to keep You posted about price movement and about bearish/bullish confirmations. Hopefully, the history doesn't repeat itself and I can call out more bullish confirmations ;)
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*This information is not a recommendation to buy or sell. It is to be used for educational purposes only!