Trade Like A Legend! Trade Like Magic! BITCOIN! (BTC)
Diupdate
Welcome friends, to this update analysis on Bitcoin! Let's get right to it! Looking at the four hour chart, you can see that BTC is creating a bear flag, inside of a larger bear flag. Additionally, it's forming this smaller bear flag, just above the falling pink trendline, which formerly represented the top of BTC's downtrend channel, until the channel was shifted by the high formed on 3/5. You can see that on the 12th, BTC rallied up to the rising green trendline (which has also been a very important and reactionary level in my analyses) and it was rejected at the green trendline exactly. That was actually an upside breakout of the bear flag, which quickly failed, as price printed a bearish engulfing candle, which now represents the flag pole of the small bear flag. Furthermore, inside of the smaller bear flag, you can see that there have been a series of failed attempts to close a candle above the 20 EMA (in blue.) You can see that several of the most recent candles have tall upper wicks, which indicates distribution (selling) particularly above the 20 EMA. So, the sellers are clearly stepping in, and unloading BTC when the price rises above the 20 EMA. It appears as though the current candle could also fail to close above the 20, printing a bearish hammer in the process.
On the MACD, we can see that it has flattened out, as the momentum has died during this bearish consolidation. Volume is also decreasing, which is typical to see during flag consolidations, so the indicators are essentially confirming the flag action on the chart. That doesn't necessarily mean that a downside break is certain. Currently, there appears to be a high probability of a downside break, but I'm not here to "predict" whether or not it's going to break to the downside. That's not what analysis is all about. We identify patterns, and trade the breakout. Whether it breaks to the upside or the downside doesn't matter. I'm going to make money either way, and here's why. I can see that inside of the bear flag, there also appears to be a weird inverse head and shoulders formation that is taking shape. So, perhaps these fags break to the upside, and they fulfill the inverse head and shoulders pattern instead. Do you see what I mean? That's why we always WAIT FOR THE BREAKOUT! Personally, I would rather see a breakout to the downside, because I think it will be more violent, and I will be able to make more money at a faster rate.
Here's how Magic plans to trade this flag. The moment it breaks to the downside, I will short it, with a stop loss just above the bottom of the flag, with the intention of seeing BTC retest the 6000 level. I will unload 1/4 of the position, at each 1/4 interval on the way to 6K. If a reversal signal emerges anywhere in the middle of that trade, I would unload the entire short. On the upside, I will wait for a breakout above the black trendline, which represents the top of the downtrend channel. Sure, I could go long at a break above the green trendline, but the upside is minimal with that trade. A break above the black trendline would be much more substantial. From there, I would expect a retest of the blue trendline, which represents the neckline of the inverse head and shoulders pattern. That's my entry point, for a long side trade. I'm the master of the charts, the professor, the legend, the king, and I go by the name of Magic. Au revoir.
This has been your not-so-humble market wizard, droppin' knowledge like bombs in this place! Please follow, comment, like, and share on social media. Good luck trading everyone!
***This information is not a recommendation to buy or sell. It is to be used for educational purposes only.***
-Magic loves you-
-JD-
On the MACD, we can see that it has flattened out, as the momentum has died during this bearish consolidation. Volume is also decreasing, which is typical to see during flag consolidations, so the indicators are essentially confirming the flag action on the chart. That doesn't necessarily mean that a downside break is certain. Currently, there appears to be a high probability of a downside break, but I'm not here to "predict" whether or not it's going to break to the downside. That's not what analysis is all about. We identify patterns, and trade the breakout. Whether it breaks to the upside or the downside doesn't matter. I'm going to make money either way, and here's why. I can see that inside of the bear flag, there also appears to be a weird inverse head and shoulders formation that is taking shape. So, perhaps these fags break to the upside, and they fulfill the inverse head and shoulders pattern instead. Do you see what I mean? That's why we always WAIT FOR THE BREAKOUT! Personally, I would rather see a breakout to the downside, because I think it will be more violent, and I will be able to make more money at a faster rate.
Here's how Magic plans to trade this flag. The moment it breaks to the downside, I will short it, with a stop loss just above the bottom of the flag, with the intention of seeing BTC retest the 6000 level. I will unload 1/4 of the position, at each 1/4 interval on the way to 6K. If a reversal signal emerges anywhere in the middle of that trade, I would unload the entire short. On the upside, I will wait for a breakout above the black trendline, which represents the top of the downtrend channel. Sure, I could go long at a break above the green trendline, but the upside is minimal with that trade. A break above the black trendline would be much more substantial. From there, I would expect a retest of the blue trendline, which represents the neckline of the inverse head and shoulders pattern. That's my entry point, for a long side trade. I'm the master of the charts, the professor, the legend, the king, and I go by the name of Magic. Au revoir.
This has been your not-so-humble market wizard, droppin' knowledge like bombs in this place! Please follow, comment, like, and share on social media. Good luck trading everyone!
***This information is not a recommendation to buy or sell. It is to be used for educational purposes only.***
-Magic loves you-
-JD-
Catatan
I should have included this trendline in the analysis. you can see that there is an important level that will come into play, if BTC falls into double bottom territory. It is a rising trendline support, created by the lows of 7/16/17 and 9/15/17. Catatan
The update is here! 
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