Time to Nibble for The Long Term

Buying BTC below the 2 year MA has always paid off. I think its a good time to begin nibbling instead of trying to time the exact bottom. I expect downward wicks to be around 25k based on the following:

1. General decline in volatility over time. expecting a 30% drawdown from the 2 y MA which is about 36k now. Puts the floor at about 25k.
2. Price barely touched and didnt break the upper bound. Hence dont expect a significant break on the lower bound.
2. RSI is at a place where we generally start seeing a macro reversal / bottom. This one is tricky though. We may sweep the floor on RSI for a long time and still trend lower. But still.....not something to ignore.

Have we bottomed out? probably......still more downside possible? yes.....

but I am comfortable nibbling here for the long term.