Potential Fractal

19 Jun 2018

A potential fractal of the April short squeeze appears to be developing, with potential upside of either $7500 if the orange wedge plays out, or $8500 if the pink pennant plays out.This model would likely be invalidated if the price breaks above resistance around $7100 or below support around $6100 before completing the formation.

6 Jul 2018

Catatan

The price broke down below $6100, but not significantly. Overall, this model was a success, as it allowed me to take two long plays around $5800 - once on the bounce and again on the squeeze up.

Considering it broke down further before the squeeze, however, i find the $8500 target unlikely. My targets have been update to a low-range upside of $6800 to re-test former resistance, or around $7500 to re-test the pennant in pink before approaching descending resistance from ATH (orange).

I see that latter as more likely, but the r/r is not in favor of longs until the price breaks out to the upside of $6800.

21 Jul 2018

Catatan

So it looks like this idea played out rather nicely. While $7500-$7600 was my initial target, the comparison to the previous cycle from $6600 to 10k makes $7800 here look very similar to $8600 during the previous cycle, with a failed pump dropping back and then pushing toward a higher high.

While I am overall bearish still, it looks like this has the potential to push toward the $8600 range. I'm not sure I feel comfortable entering any highly leveraged longs here, but it could be something to consider for my fellow degenerates once this consolidation period is complete.

30 Jul 2018

Catatan

Trade successful.