BTC Probable Rounding Bottom Reversal from $3000 to $6000
Diupdate
In my previous post I called short to test the 200-ma. I believe this 200-sma on the weekly chart (at $3165 today) to be the bottom. Imho sell pressure is slowing down but it's still heavy, and while it is totally possible for a flash crash and immediate recovery, I don't think it is very likely. A possible scenario for recovery is a rounding bottom that will create a sort of a cup and handle by mid January.
Catatan
That blue triangle is a bearish pennant. Target of the pennant could be near $2200, however I am hoping the 200-ma would provide a solid support ($3165), although selling pressure should be too high at that point to prevent a speedy recovery. Hence why the rounding bottom makes more sense. Again, a flash crash and recovery are still on the table but less likely. Best case the bottom is around $3000-$3200, worst case the bear pennant reaches its target down to $2200.
Catatan
Target of $3165 is almost reached. Should reach it within today or so. There is a chance that it will fall further. This was a great call so far. If you haven't followed my short call, you can find it here:
Again, it is possible that it will drop further than $3165 but at this point I don't think it will last too long before a recovery. BTCUSDSHORTS are at all time high, weekly RSI is finally below 30 for the first time this bear run. BTC looks overstretched and is due for a correction.
Catatan
tradingview.com/x/Rj3LBGCatatan
Possible that it will reach $3050 but I don't think it will last very long. Shorts were never this high, RSI on the weekly chart is finally oversold and BTC is overstreched. Also there is a bullish divergence on the daily chart. To me, from $6200 to $5200 was the first elliott wave, from $5200 to $5700 was the 2 wave. From $5700 to $3500 was the third impulse wave, $3500 to $4400 was wave 4 and finally $4400 to $3000 is wave 5. Catatan
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