BITCOIN Can it reach 200k by the end of the year?

Bitcoin (BTCUSD) is under a heavy consolidation for the whole month of February bringing discomfort to the market, which thought that an immediate rally in 2025 was in order. Libra's rug pull and last week's ByBit's hack didn't help, quite the contrary, the first calls of a Bear Market have started to resurface again.

This chart on the 1W time-frame however, pays good justice as to the situation BTC is currently facing. First of all, the price has dropped below the Mayer Multiple 1SD above (grey trend-line), which is not encouraging as in the previous Cycle this only happened in mid-May 2021 and in the two Cycles before, didn't happen until the new Bear Cycles started.

This isn't however that alarming as it was natural for Bitcoin to be more aggressive during its first years, with the price so low (and with much greater potential ahead of it) and the market capitalization still in infant stages.

This is why, as you may notice, the Parabolic Channels get less and less aggressive on each passing Cycle, with the current one being the most 'conservative' of all. This explains why last Cycle 'only' hit the MM 2SD above (orange trend-line), while the two Cycles before that easily hit and broke above the MM 3SD above.

Naturally, we may assume the following to parameters for the remainder of the current Bull Cycle:

a) It is not necessary to hit the MM 2SD above again, in fact it is more likely not to do so.
b) Since the last two Cycles both lasted 1064 days (152 weeks) from their Bear Cycle bottom to the Bull Cycle top, we can expect the current one to top around October 06 2025.

Despite those limitations, BTC can hit the 200k mark based on the tranjectory of the current Parabolic Channel, which would still be considerably below the MM 2SD above, by the end of 2025.

Do you think that's realistic to expect or $200000 is too much to expect during this Cycle? Feel free to let us know in the comments section below!

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