BitcoinPembelian
Bitcoin is teetering on the edge!
Diupdate
Hello fellow traders!
So, I'm seeing some very interesting signals in the chart for Bitcoin.
You may ask, why does my wedge cut off some price action? Because I believe this is the REAL wedge we are currently ranging in.
If you look closely, it has acted as support or resistance 5 times. I find that to be suitable enough to cut off an 'anomaly' aka a bart.
At the moment, we are finding resistance on exactly this line.
Anyway, let's dive in.
An indicator I forgot about until recently, the TTM squeeze indicator, just fired.
The 2nd to last time this indicator fired, rather severe hidden bearish divergence caused us to plummet.
The macro trend was very clearly downward.
Prior to that occasion, there was a squeeze that occured that ultimately led us into bart-land. That bart was a short squeeze, as shown by the TTM squeeze indicator.
Now however, the macro trend is somewhat bullish. Hidden bearish divergence will confirm in the 6h though if we do not hold above $3,441. I find it incredibly coincidental that the exact same thing seems to be happening here. Technically, this would mean we are still bearish and will fall to the supports marked in blue.
Interesting to note, the TTM squeeze indicator is showing that sell momentum has depleted to the point where bulls may take over.
IF we are able to close where we are now or higher by the time the new daily hits, we should see some upward relief at worst. It is ENTIRELY possible that we go bull from here. I have marked my current Elliott count. If this count is accurate, I have a strong suspicion this will lead us into bart territory, so price movement will be violent and swift. RSI is showing bullish divergence in the 6h, so it is clear to me that sell momentum is beginning to wane.
What's more, there is an interesting break of key resistance that noone seems to be talking about.
Technically speaking, on linear scale we have broken out of the ATH resistance trend line and re-tested it successfully as support. On log scale, we are nowhere near this resistance, so chances are decent that this means absolutely nothing. Interesting observation nonetheless.
On log scale, the ATH trendline seems to actually be some form of support depending how you draw it.
The 10k rise in April found resistance at this line, meanwhile back in August Bitcoin used this line for support.
Notice when we fell below it on the epic drop we experienced, it became resistance for exactly 1 day before the subsequent massive breakout to $4,200.
In the idea I published the other day, Bitcoin has technically obliterated both forms of resistance.
Again, probably pointless, but it's still an observation that should be taken into consideration.
I would like to say, that TA is TA.
**That said, we are either going to dig a hole to China, or Bitcoin is going to experience it's very first higher high since we fell from the ATH.**
IF we were to fall, it will be bad. I strongly suspect $2,435 will be the minimum bear target.
4K is the minimum bull target.
So, I'm seeing some very interesting signals in the chart for Bitcoin.
You may ask, why does my wedge cut off some price action? Because I believe this is the REAL wedge we are currently ranging in.
If you look closely, it has acted as support or resistance 5 times. I find that to be suitable enough to cut off an 'anomaly' aka a bart.
At the moment, we are finding resistance on exactly this line.
Anyway, let's dive in.
An indicator I forgot about until recently, the TTM squeeze indicator, just fired.
The 2nd to last time this indicator fired, rather severe hidden bearish divergence caused us to plummet.
The macro trend was very clearly downward.
Prior to that occasion, there was a squeeze that occured that ultimately led us into bart-land. That bart was a short squeeze, as shown by the TTM squeeze indicator.
Now however, the macro trend is somewhat bullish. Hidden bearish divergence will confirm in the 6h though if we do not hold above $3,441. I find it incredibly coincidental that the exact same thing seems to be happening here. Technically, this would mean we are still bearish and will fall to the supports marked in blue.
Interesting to note, the TTM squeeze indicator is showing that sell momentum has depleted to the point where bulls may take over.
IF we are able to close where we are now or higher by the time the new daily hits, we should see some upward relief at worst. It is ENTIRELY possible that we go bull from here. I have marked my current Elliott count. If this count is accurate, I have a strong suspicion this will lead us into bart territory, so price movement will be violent and swift. RSI is showing bullish divergence in the 6h, so it is clear to me that sell momentum is beginning to wane.
What's more, there is an interesting break of key resistance that noone seems to be talking about.
Technically speaking, on linear scale we have broken out of the ATH resistance trend line and re-tested it successfully as support. On log scale, we are nowhere near this resistance, so chances are decent that this means absolutely nothing. Interesting observation nonetheless.
On log scale, the ATH trendline seems to actually be some form of support depending how you draw it.
The 10k rise in April found resistance at this line, meanwhile back in August Bitcoin used this line for support.
Notice when we fell below it on the epic drop we experienced, it became resistance for exactly 1 day before the subsequent massive breakout to $4,200.
In the idea I published the other day, Bitcoin has technically obliterated both forms of resistance.
Again, probably pointless, but it's still an observation that should be taken into consideration.
I would like to say, that TA is TA.
**That said, we are either going to dig a hole to China, or Bitcoin is going to experience it's very first higher high since we fell from the ATH.**
IF we were to fall, it will be bad. I strongly suspect $2,435 will be the minimum bear target.
4K is the minimum bull target.Catatan
imgur.com/a/7c6plPLThis links shows something interesting happening.
Huge chunks of Bitcoin are coming off the sell block on Coinbase Pro. These chunks are very small compared to what I have been seeing lately fly through that exchange. Some orders are 40+ Bitcoin, just from what I have seen.
Now, we are going to put on our tinfoil hat.
February 5th will be the 1 year anniversary of the Dow Jones Index having the highest single-day point loss in history.
The same day, Bitcoin had the highest single-day buy volume to be seen in years. What happened next was a massive rally that took Bitcoin up 100%.
We are only 4 days away from the anniversary of that. I find that interesting.
Catatan
The DOW is showing extreme signs of weakness as well, IMO. Currently it is printing a bearish ascending wedge and what looks to be a truncated 5th wave. The apex of that wedge? Feb 5th.If so, that would mean B wave is complete, and the DOW will soon begin to plummet for the C wave.
Last Friday, Gold temporarily went absolutely vertical out of nowhere. I strongly suspect this was because whales in the stock market exited a majority of their positions on the end of the 3rd wave. Textbook exit for the conservative trader.
So what does this mean? Against all odds, there IS the possibility that some super-whale money may flow into Bitcoin considering how low it is sitting when compared to back at 6k. These whales are very smart and very calculated, nothing in Finance is coincidental and that includes Bitcoin. They disperse their cash to wherever is showing strong signals of a bottom, or something that has very bullish charts.
What IF this is the start of the Bitcoin bullrun? Whales will be looking to put their money into assets, not just Gold. That is the beauty of diversification. A lot of people will say that Bitcoin is too risky to put large amounts of money in, but that's not true for the whales who can move this market by themselves. The money it would take in the stock market to move a stock, would absolutely obliterate any current resistance Bitcoin has. Keep this in mind.
Catatan
Those of you that were following me last year remember I called a massive reversal in Bitcoin on April 11th.Next thing you know Bitcoin hit my target to within less money than it takes to buy 2 cheeseburgers from McDonalds and proceeded to rally all the way to 10k.
Against all odds I was SCREAMING bull, while EVERYONE was bear. FEAR is all over the front page of BTCUSD right now. An all time high, if you will. Imagine how many people this bart would catch out of position if it materializes?
I am not only having feelings of April 12th all over again, this time they are MUCH MUCH stronger. I have a *severe* bias to the downside due to being out of position myself, but I canNOT ignore what is being shown in the charts.
I don't know what I'd rather feel. Elated that Bitcoin rallies hard while I'm out of position but everyone who believed in it makes a ton of money? OR if Bitcoin plummets I'll be happy because I can buy MORE.
MORE.
Exactly what they DO NOT WANT YOU TO HAVE.
Am I the only one who sees this as a giant bart waiting to happen?
Catatan
For what it's worth, again, my bias is to the downside.I see at least $3,300 in the cards until we have an actual breakout.
This idea was only posted in the event my intuition is as strong as I suspect it is.
Catatan
Looks like we're about to experience some downside.
Catatan
LTC, which can usually drag Bitcoins fat a** out of bed, is rallying! Interesting..
Catatan
It's a 5 minute chart, deal with it.
Just something I'm seeing.
Catatan
$3,475 is our biggest resistance atm.Catatan
Look for sell volume to slow around $3,400. If it begins to expand in volume in that area, sell. If it wanes, buy.
Pretty ez.
Catatan
My stance is still very bearish - I see $3,300 coming, possibly worse. Please keep in mind that is my bearish side, however.Since we already tested VERY CLOSE to $3,300, I do not expect it to hold up. If we get down that far there is a fair chance at a triple bottom, but very unlikely. That said, I think we will fall straight through $3,300 if we get that far.
I still think $3,250 is the lowest we will go at this point. If you're a HODLer, even YOU should be selling if we break that price, as that is basically the point of no return for this range.
----
340,000,000,000
53,040,000,000
16,201,000,000
----
20k
$3,120
$953
----
One person, or a very small group of individuals, could own the entire supply for only 16B if we hit triple digits. As much as I want to believe that will happen, there is way too many HODLers that will not allow it. For now, my triple-digit call is off the table.
Catatan
Catatan
The lowest low we have had on the CMF indicator since 2015.
In 2015, we had a spike BELOW where our lowest low is thus far, first.
On the most recent bottom, the CMF indicator shows we did not breach the support prior to the next bullrun after 2015's capitulation.
Catatan
LOOK FOR A LONG ENTRY AND FAST.Catatan
"Look for sell volume to slow around $3,400. If it begins to expand in volume in that area, sell. If it wanes, buy.
Pretty ez."
The retracement stopped at the 0.5. This is the first time in a while Bitcoin has had a wave 2 retracement to ONLY the 0.5. This IMO is an extreme hint that Bitcoin may be far more bullish than people realize.
This 2h chart highlights the zone we must hold in order to be bullish. Since this is Bitcoin, I could easily see a stop-hunt or fakeout to the downside first, so measure your trades with care.
There is a clean break of the descending wedge at this point no matter how you draw it. This is a textbook long entry - if support at the wedge support holds it's a long.
KEEP IN MIND -
Something I have noticed lately within a lot of different Cryptos is that breakouts from wedges and symmetrical triangles have been having a high rate of failure. This being said, it would not at all surprise me to see price action first, similar to what is in this chart:
Catatan
Soooooooooo just a thought-What IF the hash war 'actually' caused this dump? Wouldn't that mean that technically, Bitcoin is severely undervalued at the moment, and it *should* in theory spring right back up to where it came from?
If the 'hash war' is what caused this drop, then the next most logical thing would be for the price to do what, exactly?
Rally back up to where it came from!
6k was literally impenetrable. Something tells me we were 'not meant' to drop this far, and that will be the headline.
BITCOIN REBOUNDS DUE TO INSANE BUY PRESSURE AFTER HASH WAR DROP!!
6K TRULY WAS THE BOTTOM! yada yada yada.
I can already see it.
Get ready people.
Catatan
+If we were meant to BREAK 3k, why didn't we do it the first time?
Someone got very trigger happy at a $3,120 Bitcoin.
The hints are everywhere people. Ignore them at your own risk.
Catatan
Interestingly, we have a 2h squeeze happening at a very critical point.
I have my suspicions on why this is happening, but my guess is the market is quite literally being tested right here. If we can survive until the end of this squeeze without outright dumping I feel very confident we may finally see a legitimate breakout.
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