Hi guys! nice day! so, we have btc consolidating around 7.3k area, boring again! so many of you who went long, congratulations! we could have another spurt up to 75, 76, but 7.3k is also good spot to sell your longs because, we can always drop heavily at anytime.
anyways, today i wanted to look more into larger picture frame, comparing past patterns.
here is the monthly chart.
so we have a bullish hammer in august, closing at 7700. many are saying, we are going to the moon now. well looks like it, monthly stoch is golden crossing, macd nice...all good...but we are still getting resisted by 7MA, which is 7400ish. we closed all under that in past month, and still, even now.
so in the past bear market, we had same bullish hammer twice. but some facts are interesting here.
1. month after bullish hammer, we did not have a higher high then the hammer closing price
->this would mean that we would only spark up to 7.7k september, no more then that.
2.we can say that we have not closed above 7ma before in july or now, so we cannot be sure we are in uptrend from
now to 10k.
3.monthly stoch also golden crossed, but price pretty much went sideways after the hammer
4. price might be just stuck around 7k area, without heavy retracement to 6k or 5k, lowest 6.8~7.0k
5. september might be boring, but october might be fun(it showed a high 2month after the bullish hammer)
6. or we might go above 8k but retrace to 5.7k again. less possibility for now.
so these are easy speculations, also it would not go the same as past, as well as that the time period, speed of the market is much faster than the past. so like 2~3month time period for us can be only 1month period. that is what we are seeing, pretty much at this point. we also have a chance to see 5.7k again, if monthly want to show a somewhat double, or triple bottom formation below to 6k area. charts indicate that we will see slow sideways, it might take time now.
what is most sure is that we are almost okay to say that the bottom is almost made at 5.7k this year.
weekly basis, we see 7.4k is also in resistance at 21ma, if we follow the past path, 7.6~7.7k will be most likely the top followed by a dump.
now we are seeing so many sellers, 1hr candles, these wicked candles indicate 7400 is not easy to penetrate. even if we do we would see more sellers at 7.5~7.7k area.
so, i do think we are going up in the mid-long term, we have so many whales buying huge amount of btc's below level, which we will not drop so much now. however, we would might not get the chance to go to the moon, like over 8k this month, maybe the top is 7.7~7.8 at the most.
so trading now, is very timid, mostly, we have to buy at oversold conditions, mo matter what price. i am concerned with daily stoch rsi, it is almost now at the top, desperately wanting a retracement, leg down. this eventually will come, and i think, going long, heavy can be tried, when daily stoch is flattened. more conviction.
so i think, now two scenarios, retracement could come at 7.3~7.4k level, or 7.6~7.7. both would lead to at least 7.28 or 7.32, so for margin players, i think putting short orders not at 73/74 small, with heavy uplevel should be played out.
simple trading plans are.
1. open short
73.7~77
buy small amount at 73~74level!
sell:7.1/7.0/or 6.4(more update)
stoploss:7830
2. open longs
7.28~7.3, lowest 7.23~4
sell:7.5~7.6
stoploss:7080
anyways, today i wanted to look more into larger picture frame, comparing past patterns.
here is the monthly chart.
so we have a bullish hammer in august, closing at 7700. many are saying, we are going to the moon now. well looks like it, monthly stoch is golden crossing, macd nice...all good...but we are still getting resisted by 7MA, which is 7400ish. we closed all under that in past month, and still, even now.
so in the past bear market, we had same bullish hammer twice. but some facts are interesting here.
1. month after bullish hammer, we did not have a higher high then the hammer closing price
->this would mean that we would only spark up to 7.7k september, no more then that.
2.we can say that we have not closed above 7ma before in july or now, so we cannot be sure we are in uptrend from
now to 10k.
3.monthly stoch also golden crossed, but price pretty much went sideways after the hammer
4. price might be just stuck around 7k area, without heavy retracement to 6k or 5k, lowest 6.8~7.0k
5. september might be boring, but october might be fun(it showed a high 2month after the bullish hammer)
6. or we might go above 8k but retrace to 5.7k again. less possibility for now.
so these are easy speculations, also it would not go the same as past, as well as that the time period, speed of the market is much faster than the past. so like 2~3month time period for us can be only 1month period. that is what we are seeing, pretty much at this point. we also have a chance to see 5.7k again, if monthly want to show a somewhat double, or triple bottom formation below to 6k area. charts indicate that we will see slow sideways, it might take time now.
what is most sure is that we are almost okay to say that the bottom is almost made at 5.7k this year.
weekly basis, we see 7.4k is also in resistance at 21ma, if we follow the past path, 7.6~7.7k will be most likely the top followed by a dump.
now we are seeing so many sellers, 1hr candles, these wicked candles indicate 7400 is not easy to penetrate. even if we do we would see more sellers at 7.5~7.7k area.
so, i do think we are going up in the mid-long term, we have so many whales buying huge amount of btc's below level, which we will not drop so much now. however, we would might not get the chance to go to the moon, like over 8k this month, maybe the top is 7.7~7.8 at the most.
so trading now, is very timid, mostly, we have to buy at oversold conditions, mo matter what price. i am concerned with daily stoch rsi, it is almost now at the top, desperately wanting a retracement, leg down. this eventually will come, and i think, going long, heavy can be tried, when daily stoch is flattened. more conviction.
so i think, now two scenarios, retracement could come at 7.3~7.4k level, or 7.6~7.7. both would lead to at least 7.28 or 7.32, so for margin players, i think putting short orders not at 73/74 small, with heavy uplevel should be played out.
simple trading plans are.
1. open short
73.7~77
buy small amount at 73~74level!
sell:7.1/7.0/or 6.4(more update)
stoploss:7830
2. open longs
7.28~7.3, lowest 7.23~4
sell:7.5~7.6
stoploss:7080
Komentar:
guys, good follower SamHuynh has commented that candle stick patterns do not always work, we get burnt. i totally agree 100%, i hate TA's who tell people to buy when there is a hammer in 1hr, or 4hr, and i have asserted that is wrong so many times. but we should at least try to figure out a scenario, prospect the future where it would go by monthly, and weekly term by candles for more knowledge, within the effort to personally have a philosophy where the market would go. so don't believe this TA so much! just have in mind, always figure out your plans^^
Komentar:
for today, market has consolidated at 73, trying to break upwards. i plan to sell my longs at 7250, at 74 area when it comes. or if it does not come in next 12 hours, i will try to sell them at upper 73 level. i don't want to be so greedy, btc is almost at its full capacity now. so watch out, always be prepared to sell longs, if we break 7440~50, we would see 75 zone even.
Komentar:
so guys, remember the bull pennant yesterday? yes,from the looks of it, i think it is extending it. this kind of formation, for some looks like an ascending triangle, rising wedge, but also a bull pennant. we keep having bearish div on small time frames but doesn't really matter. on daily, we keep making resistance as support making the bollinger band band upwards which is making a more upper room to go up. maybe we are just too impetuous because btc is slowly assimilating sell/buy walls. patience can be the key to this game.
Komentar:
so if we cannot make a higher high than 7420, like 7450, or 7470 soon, it might make a retracement to 7200 zone, which is bottom line for 4hr bollinger band. if you short btc at this level, that can be a price to sell firsthand, if it tries to defend 7200 area. we can also go long at that spot too, if indicators are too oversold, it is supported for quite some time.
Komentar:
also, possibility of double top formation at daily check. every month 6~7th is a date that possibility turns the trend around! watch for this bear divergence until 8~9th. if this happens, 74 can be the top. maybe too early to say, but, looking at past patterns this month's 6~7th may be a turn to fall down. i sold my longs now, went short.
Komentar:
i went short at 7375, i sold 50% at 7075. let's see.
Trading ditutup: target tercapai:
Guys sell shorts when it comes down to 7k 7100 area again. I closed all shorts for now at 7075 and 7090.will wait see update market.
Komentar:
guys try some long now at 69 area~~not much. stoploss is 6800
Komentar:
look for this kind of double bottom, at 68~69 it might happen, after a small bounce i believe it will come down again. it should do this in next 7~8hours or so, because it would want to escape the ichimoku daily cloud before closing.
Komentar:
I got in longs at 6944 plan to buy more at 68 zone if comes down.lets see. I rhink it will try to close above 7120 tomorrow above the red daily clouds but,just a guess for now.
Komentar:
look at 1hr rsi. looks like a stiff chair, never seen amthing like this. this shows absolute panic for the bulls. also means it will take time to go up, maybe a day or two. even i think they will try the rebound in next 9 hours. i think after some bounce it will come down, to 6800ish still, we need to see. so hold your longs for now.
Komentar:
ok guys. it can take some time, but anyways, long at 69 zone, and high 68 if it comes down. target 7140/7200, try to sell around after or before coming daily close.
Komentar:
easy by chart. once bought put stoploss 6780, put sell order around 7140, or 7130.
Komentar:
Sell longs in 2 hours if we do not come to 7k.
Trading ditutup secara manual:
Usuallu when btc plays too long at support with no bounce it means its weak maybe more drop. Sell longs at 69 for now.
Komentar:
Ok. Guys did you secure your peofits or stoplossed?i went in 6830 sold it at 6884 when i saw this drop might come.Bitfinex visited 6700 bitmex at 6630. I will update. Market is garbage again.
Komentar:
whales lifted the price from august 15th, until yesterday, they dumped it just in 12hours. anyway, let's see how the market moves for the next days. i'm in long now, from 6300, plan to scalp it really, we need to see if it wants to test bottom levels at 5.7~6k again.
Komentar:
so crappy market again. daily rsi, stoch banding down. okay so, even it wants 62 as some support, it will revisit or at 6300 will be revisited. sadly, but we can play shorts at this point for scaping. i guess you can open shorts 6450~6550, target is 6300, 6250.