Wave analysis for BTC. Correction due soon.
Diupdate
As the chart shows, it's easy to identify the elliott waves on the weekly timeframe. Also shown is the possible upward correction (corrective wave C will probably face stiff resistance between $5200-$5600, clearing this area is key). I will keep this chart updated.
Catatan
We should see wave A this week imho. After yesterday's weekly close I think it's possible we can reach $4300, it's important to break the strong descending trendline that started this drop back in November.Catatan
First target of the recovery so far should be around $3800-$3900. Not sure yet what will happen after that. Catatan
Looks like price is heading in the opposite direction of what I anticipated. However, there is still a chance that this is a bear trap. Usually a slow bleed on low volume is a bullish sign. So for now it's best to stay away from trading.Catatan
Right after writing my update price spiked up almost $100 and back down. It appears that anything below $3400 is the accumulation zone and some big players are waiting for stops to trigger under $3400 and buy with high volume. This is a bullish sign and makes me think that if we hold current levels then the blue line I showed earlier should happen. I still think that a corrective wave A is in the cards for this week with target $4200. Any move down could be a big bear trap to trigger stop losses and buy big.Catatan
Everything I said yesterday still applies.Catatan
Target is still $3800.
If bulls are able to set the higher low today or tomorrow then we should see a big rally up.
Catatan
Looks like bulls were able to set the low. As I said these past two days any move down was likely to be a bear trap. This is an important level if we clear it, road to $3800 is a reality.Catatan
As we can see, we are at a key level. If we clear this red resistance trendline we are clear for a really big recovery and rally up. If we do clear it, then that ABC correction in the first chart of this post is very likely. Catatan
The outlook is this:If we stay above the red trendline, then it is possible to slow bleed again to test the bottom blue support line, however it still bullish as long as it doesn't fall under it. If we fall under the red trendline then chances are panic mode resumes and we set a new low. However, odds are looking good for the move up. Even sideways movement for a couple of days in this range is fine as long as we stay above the red trendline and then move up. A retest of the bottom blue line while still being above the red trendline is okay as long as the move down gets rejected and will energize bulls. Again very strong odds that we move up to first target $3800. This is my last update for today so good luck and remember to like and follow.
Catatan
As I said yesterday, if we stay above the red trendline and we slow bleed to test the blue support line, it's fine. If a break beneath the blue support line gets rejected then a powerful move to $3800 or higher will play out. What is making this tricky is the volume which is staying steady, not going up or down. It's making everything really hard to predict.
Also this means that a powerful move is incoming. Odds are that it will break higher. If a breakdown does occurs, it probably is a big bear trap to trigger stop losses and buy big. I have been short and a bear for a long time because I knew there was enough room to fall further. Now we reached what is a possible bottom and any move downward can be a trap to shake retail investors and flush out people who short the bottom for a quick profit because they have been right since January 2018. Herd mentality is still pointing south (just look at the number of short). If you went long now then don't let the sell pressure fool you, BTC is oversold on the weekly chart, and stoch RSI is 0 on the monthly. If you're long now you'll see the benefits in weeks or months. Patience is key. Now this is not an advice to go long, but an advice to be wary to sell now if you are already long.
I think the wave analysis was pretty accurate as sellers are losing steam which is an indication of the 5th wave coming to an end. Please remember that the waves take weeks to complete, not days. We should be seeing the corrective ABC waves, but again, these won't play out in a few days.
Catatan
Alts have been pretty consistent these last few days, this strengthen the case for a big move coming soon. As with BTC most alts are trying to set a higher low. Now I am still confident in a strong higher move coming soon (beginning of corrective wave A). All depends when BTC reaches that blue support line, a rejection will cause a higher move up. I'm thinking something like this could play out:
Catatan
BTC finally broke that trading range and dumped below the blue support line and the red trendline, and it did so without much conviction. Alts have dumped just a little bit but not too much. Again this makes me think that we are still toward the end of wave 5. At this point it is possible that BTC may dump further to test $3175 as support (200-ma) on the weekly chart. I am still bullish because I see exhaustion in the sell pressure. Only a dip under the 200-ma on the weekly may takes back into capitulation and panic mode. I'm still convinced that this is just a bear trap and we may see reversal after reaching $3175 or even before that. At this point I am seeing no real conviction to dump below $3175 and my gut says a reversal is right around the corner.
Catatan
There should another leg up soon, might get stopped around $3676Catatan
Great momentum so far! Make sure to check my other charts! Great return on those too especially the TRX/USD chart! Amazing so far! If you want more updates please like and follow! My ideas will always be free.Catatan
Wave A seems to have almost reached it's target as predicted. It could take few more days to exhaust. At which point, trend-following corrective wave B should start and we should see a big drop between $3500-$3800.Catatan
Another clue:In this chart you can see that there is a possible and probable morning star pattern in the making on the monthly chart. It's possible that january may see recovery to $5600.
If you look at the blue circle this indicator has shown a bullish buy signal when price hit $3170. So far on bigger timeframes this indicator has been very accurate. December 2017 there was a sell signal (first blue circle from left), July 2018 another buy signal before that rally to $8400 (second blue circle from left). Now another buy signal, which coupled with the monthly stochastic and RSI will allow a move and potentially start the next bull run. Now, this is just an opinion rather than a trade call. So take this lightly, but keep it mind.
Catatan
We should begin trend-following wave B till $3800. I was a little bit off but it appears that $4230 was the end of corrective wave A.
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