Local top is in for BTC. Getting ready to short here or at 8k.
Hourly fisher cross down,
Bearish divergence on the hourly (double check it on the 15 minutes, it's more clear there)
Hourly 200MA and this 0.382 fib extension level are being resistance where they confluence.
Finally, godmode does it's little red ball thing which is usually pretty solid.
The overhead resistance blob and the fibs had been drawn in before, somewhere around the 1st of april - where I also wrote to buy a retest. That would have been a nice move to have gotten in on! But this would be the time I would get out of that long, for the aforementioned reasons.
Wait for the ascending wedge breakout for a solid signal.
Downward target will *not* be new lows yet : We are still oversold on the daily, and daily indicators are showing momentum for a rally.
Look for a bounce around 6600-6900.
Mid term still bearish; this i sjust a swing trade inside a short-term rally inside an overarching bear-trend. Don't expect to just sit in this short till the bottom.
How to trade this?
Tight stops; we're wrong above 7400,
We might drop to 7200 and continue higher, staying inside the wedge all the way to the top of the resistance zone at 8000.
The good thing about this would be that the ascending wedge breakdown would be more clearly visible and immediate, allowing you to put a stop at the breakdown level. It would be an easier trade to make and fit better with the daily oscillator situation. So yeah, scenario 2 is a rally to 8000.
Bearish divergence on the hourly (double check it on the 15 minutes, it's more clear there)
Hourly 200MA and this 0.382 fib extension level are being resistance where they confluence.
Finally, godmode does it's little red ball thing which is usually pretty solid.
The overhead resistance blob and the fibs had been drawn in before, somewhere around the 1st of april - where I also wrote to buy a retest. That would have been a nice move to have gotten in on! But this would be the time I would get out of that long, for the aforementioned reasons.
Wait for the ascending wedge breakout for a solid signal.
Downward target will *not* be new lows yet : We are still oversold on the daily, and daily indicators are showing momentum for a rally.
Look for a bounce around 6600-6900.
Mid term still bearish; this i sjust a swing trade inside a short-term rally inside an overarching bear-trend. Don't expect to just sit in this short till the bottom.
How to trade this?
Tight stops; we're wrong above 7400,
We might drop to 7200 and continue higher, staying inside the wedge all the way to the top of the resistance zone at 8000.
The good thing about this would be that the ascending wedge breakdown would be more clearly visible and immediate, allowing you to put a stop at the breakdown level. It would be an easier trade to make and fit better with the daily oscillator situation. So yeah, scenario 2 is a rally to 8000.
Catatan
Here's a 15-minute closeup with divergences marked. We can see volume decreasing from the start of the rally, the break above 7200, till now. Selling volume coming in, wicks forming at the top of the candles, and that fib level offering resistance, while the moving average is giving support. The two are squeezing closer together and will force a move within the next 2 hours : Divergence says down. But we have the luxury of tight stops in a trade like this, so even if we are wrong we'll know that right away.
Catatan
Fib held perfectly and we've lost the 15-minute 20EMA
Catatan
We 've made a new high. Divergence continues, but volume is picking up. no breakdown yet.
Trading ditutup: target tercapai
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