BTC Price Prediction, January 2018
I've had this forecast since 29th December.
It appears we are correctly slightly sooner than anticipated - but I have, as of today, cashed out most of my short-term trades, and converted a larger portion of my portfolio (more than 50% - much more than I usually hold in cash) to fiat.
I have held onto a few smaller trades - nothing that would be too detrimental to my portfolio should the correction occur in the immediate future.
I am very nearly convinced we will see a correction similar to the one we saw in september, within the next week.
My reasons are as follows:
- The market is quantifiably losing momentum
- Everyone has been bullish for months - when everyone is bullish, a correction is only a matter of time
- The exponential growth in the cryptocurrency market cap over the past 3 months, without any discernable correction, is cause for concern
- It does not matter how big a market is, it will follow EW principles and fractal patterns. In fact, the larger the market, I would argue, the more likely it is to obey these principles and paterns
- We have experienced a nice A and B wave correction pattern - and are awaiting the final C wave (shown on the chart)
- This ABC correction is following key fibonacci retracements and time extensions quite nicely
- Corrections to the whole market have, in the past, occured approximately every 60 days, give or take. This brings us to 10th January, 61.8 days since the September correction began
- RSI, Stochastic RSI, and Percent Price oscillator (a modified MACD) confirm these predictions
- ADX shows weakening of the previous trend's strength
- The chart failed to make a bat pattern, which I considered a possibility for several days - I expect a Wave C correction to take us to approximately 11k (following my original ABC correction prediction) - lower than it would have gone should the BTCUSD chart had made a bat pattern
- BTC has previously dragged the whole market down or up with its larger price movements. Altcoins have begun to move more independently of bitcoin, but I still believe a large drop in BTC will be reflected across the cryptocurrency market as a whole
It appears we are correctly slightly sooner than anticipated - but I have, as of today, cashed out most of my short-term trades, and converted a larger portion of my portfolio (more than 50% - much more than I usually hold in cash) to fiat.
I have held onto a few smaller trades - nothing that would be too detrimental to my portfolio should the correction occur in the immediate future.
I am very nearly convinced we will see a correction similar to the one we saw in september, within the next week.
My reasons are as follows:
- The market is quantifiably losing momentum
- Everyone has been bullish for months - when everyone is bullish, a correction is only a matter of time
- The exponential growth in the cryptocurrency market cap over the past 3 months, without any discernable correction, is cause for concern
- It does not matter how big a market is, it will follow EW principles and fractal patterns. In fact, the larger the market, I would argue, the more likely it is to obey these principles and paterns
- We have experienced a nice A and B wave correction pattern - and are awaiting the final C wave (shown on the chart)
- This ABC correction is following key fibonacci retracements and time extensions quite nicely
- Corrections to the whole market have, in the past, occured approximately every 60 days, give or take. This brings us to 10th January, 61.8 days since the September correction began
- RSI, Stochastic RSI, and Percent Price oscillator (a modified MACD) confirm these predictions
- ADX shows weakening of the previous trend's strength
- The chart failed to make a bat pattern, which I considered a possibility for several days - I expect a Wave C correction to take us to approximately 11k (following my original ABC correction prediction) - lower than it would have gone should the BTCUSD chart had made a bat pattern
- BTC has previously dragged the whole market down or up with its larger price movements. Altcoins have begun to move more independently of bitcoin, but I still believe a large drop in BTC will be reflected across the cryptocurrency market as a whole
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