BTC Macro Wyckoff Phase C?

25 Jun 2018

The Weekly chart is great at filtering out noise. I refer back to it for a clearer picture of what's going on without having to see ugly wicks from bart patterns and the like. It's obvious that we are in a down trend. It's important to note that we broke the February lows, but did not close below as the market rallied to close above 6k. The first thing that jumps out to me from a Wyckoff perspective is the increasing bearish effort that is producing a decreasing result in terms of spread and close to close as seen in the past three bearish bars. This is evidence of decreasing bearish momentum on the way down as larger hands seem to be quietly absorbing supply. Those familiar with Wyckoff might also recognize the possible spring situation that we have found ourselves in. From a macro view, we might say that this is a spring type #2. Please refer to Bruce's blog post for more background: http://stockcharts.com/articles/wyckoff/2015/06/jumping-the-creek.html

If we are indeed in a spring situation, we'd like to see this level hold. #2 springs don't need to be tested, but they can be, so we'd watch to see how the market reacts to a test. Lower volume on a test would show signs of support. The bullish case would have us making multiple last points of support on the way up.

Another idea within the accumulation trading range bias is that this is just another ST in Phase B. Either way, It may be tradable to the upside with a stop under the most recent lows.

Good luck.