BTCUSD 4H charts (6/5/2019)
Good morning, traders. In yesterday's update, I outlined what I was watching for and what I wanted to see for price to continue higher. The daily candle did not close as bullishly as I had hoped it would, however the pivot held and we saw a strong rebound off the 4H S2 pivot. Usually, if the move is corrective and not a reversal, we expect to see price bouncing somewhere between the S1 and S2 pivot (usually closer to the latter) like it did. Additionally, price has printed what appears to be a well-defined ABC pattern which is corrective. We don't know for sure if it's an ABC or just the first 3 waves of a set, but the fact that the 3rd or C wave did not exceed the 1.618% extension of the first wave means that the ABC is a possibility. We could also see a complex correction as described below. If it is a simple ABC corrective set, then we should expect price to continue heading toward new 2019 highs.
When it comes to the daily, I would like to see today's candle close above the 21 EMA. If it does, then that means that the 21 EMA held as support because yesterday's and today's candle spread would be on that 21 EMA. If it closes below it then that opens the door to more possible downside, but doesn't guarantee it. Beyond that, we need to see price continue above the 4H pivot at $8600. If it fails to get above this point, then it's possible that we are seeing a larger, complex correction and we should be able to note an ABC pattern from the bounce. This would have me looking for support around the $6900-$7000 level. The 4H RSI breaching its red descending resistance should be a good indication of price solidly moving up at that time.
The 4H Coinbase chart shows the expected movement according to EW, the pitchfork, and the pivots. That doesn't mean that price will move exactly as shown. This is especially important to remember on the pullbacks because if demand is significantly more than the supply, we won't see the deeper usual retracements that we expect. The 4H Bitstamp chart shows another way of looking at this area. As I have been mentioning, price has been moving sideways for the past 3 weeks. I have labeled this TR as reaccumulation for now however, depending on just how far the final thrust goes, it may be a form of distribution. If it is the latter, then I think price will likely find a top closer to the ~$10,500/$10,600 level. Because of the parabolic advance, though, I'm still thinking we need to see a blow-off top, which would likely have price reaching the box on the Coinbase chart at least. This would result in a hypodermic distribution, similar in structure at the top to what we saw at the end of 2017.
Every day, we have a choice to act positively or negatively, so if you get a chance, do something decent for someone today which could be as simple as sharing a nice word with them. You just might change their day, or even their life.
You can always click on the "share" button in the lower right hand of the screen, under the chart, and then click on "Make it mine" from the popup menu in order to get a live version of the chart that you can explore on your own.
When it comes to the daily, I would like to see today's candle close above the 21 EMA. If it does, then that means that the 21 EMA held as support because yesterday's and today's candle spread would be on that 21 EMA. If it closes below it then that opens the door to more possible downside, but doesn't guarantee it. Beyond that, we need to see price continue above the 4H pivot at $8600. If it fails to get above this point, then it's possible that we are seeing a larger, complex correction and we should be able to note an ABC pattern from the bounce. This would have me looking for support around the $6900-$7000 level. The 4H RSI breaching its red descending resistance should be a good indication of price solidly moving up at that time.
The 4H Coinbase chart shows the expected movement according to EW, the pitchfork, and the pivots. That doesn't mean that price will move exactly as shown. This is especially important to remember on the pullbacks because if demand is significantly more than the supply, we won't see the deeper usual retracements that we expect. The 4H Bitstamp chart shows another way of looking at this area. As I have been mentioning, price has been moving sideways for the past 3 weeks. I have labeled this TR as reaccumulation for now however, depending on just how far the final thrust goes, it may be a form of distribution. If it is the latter, then I think price will likely find a top closer to the ~$10,500/$10,600 level. Because of the parabolic advance, though, I'm still thinking we need to see a blow-off top, which would likely have price reaching the box on the Coinbase chart at least. This would result in a hypodermic distribution, similar in structure at the top to what we saw at the end of 2017.
Every day, we have a choice to act positively or negatively, so if you get a chance, do something decent for someone today which could be as simple as sharing a nice word with them. You just might change their day, or even their life.
You can always click on the "share" button in the lower right hand of the screen, under the chart, and then click on "Make it mine" from the popup menu in order to get a live version of the chart that you can explore on your own.
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