BTC: Estimating next ATH using previous Time from Halving to ATH
After each bear market, Bitcoin eventually makes a new all-time high.
This new ATH always comes AFTER the next BTC halving.
The historical timespan between each halving and BTC's next ATH can help us estimate the date of the next new ATH above 69k.
Cycle 2: Timespan between halving and ATH: 77 days
Cycle 3: Timespan between halving and ATH: 224 days
Cycle 4: Timespan between halving and ATH: 203 days
The average timespan is 168 days, but since the 2nd cycle timespan is an outlier, let's ignore it and use cycle 2 and 3 only. The average timespan from halving to new ATH for the past 2 cycles is 213 days.
The next halving is around May 4, 2024 so our next ATH should be around 213 days later which falls in Q4 of 2024 (Dec 3).
Hold on tight plebaronis!
This new ATH always comes AFTER the next BTC halving.
The historical timespan between each halving and BTC's next ATH can help us estimate the date of the next new ATH above 69k.
Cycle 2: Timespan between halving and ATH: 77 days
Cycle 3: Timespan between halving and ATH: 224 days
Cycle 4: Timespan between halving and ATH: 203 days
The average timespan is 168 days, but since the 2nd cycle timespan is an outlier, let's ignore it and use cycle 2 and 3 only. The average timespan from halving to new ATH for the past 2 cycles is 213 days.
The next halving is around May 4, 2024 so our next ATH should be around 213 days later which falls in Q4 of 2024 (Dec 3).
Hold on tight plebaronis!
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